In This Issue:
* Kilimanjaro May Be Snowless in 20 Years
* Fashioning a Solution for Female Workers
* Women Reach Parity—As HIV/AIDS Victims
* Click of the Month: Trendsin Japan
* News for the Futurist Community
* What’s Hot @WFS.org:
* Submitted Feedback
The snows of Kilimanjaro may disappear within the next two decades or sooner, predict researchers from Ohio State University and the National Science Foundation (NSF)
The researchers are worried not only by the rapid retreat of the ice fields atop Kilimanjaro, but by the ice surface’s thinning. They now believe that the volume of ice lost to thinning is equal to that lost by shrinkage, which is occurring on all sides of the famed Tanzanian mountain.
"The loss of Mount Kilimanjaro's ice cover has attracted worldwide attention because of its impact on regional water resources," says David Verardo, director of the NSF's Paleoclimate Program. "Like many glaciers in mid-to-low latitudes, Kilimanjaro's may only be with us for a short time longer."
SOURCE: National Science Foundation
Designers of work clothes need to keep female workers’ needs in mind, according to Jan Peters, president of the Women’s Engineering Society (WES) in Britain. Fashioning better-fitting garments will not only keep workers safer, but also make the careers requiring them more attractive.
“There are over 65,000 women working in engineering, technology, and construction. That's around 10% of the workforce,” says Peters. “But women are built differently from men and find that work-wear is not satisfactory. Inappropriate and ill-fitting clothing can put them off from pursuing careers in these sectors.”
Safety clothing and boots that are too big are also unsafe, so Britain’s female engineers are urging women working in science, engineering, technological, and construction industries to share their complaints with clothing manufacturers.
In the future, female construction workers won’t have to pack extra socks so their work boots will fit. And perhaps the idea of wearing ill-fitting work clothes will no longer keep young girls from pursuing careers in engineering, construction, and other trades.
SOURCE: Women’s Engineering Society
Join a thousand forward-thinking men and women from around the world at WorldFuture 2010: Sustainable Futures, Strategies, and Technologies, to be held in Boston, July 8-10, at the Westin Boston Waterfront Hotel.
You’ll hear inventors Ray Kurzweil and Stephen Thaler, health futurists Kevin Fickenscher and Jay Herson, and media experts Michael Rogers, Lee Rainie, and Michael R. Nelson. Also among recently confirmed speakers is education futurist Gary Marx, president of the Center for Public Outreach.
Panel sessions, workshops, and stimulating keynote presentations will focus on what we mean by “sustainable futures,” what paths may lead us there, and what strategies and technologies we may be able to use to create the futures we aspire to achieve.
Women now make up half of the 33 million people around the world who are living with HIV/AIDS, reports the Johns Hopkins University School of Nursing.
Young women in sub-Saharan Africa are dying of AIDS at three times the rate of males, and in the United States, young African American women are contracting HIV at higher rates than all other groups, according to researchers Jacquelyn Campbell and Nancy E. Glass.
One key factor in the increased vulnerability of these women is intimate-partner violence, which increases the risk of HIV transmission in rich and poor countries alike. “If you’re being beaten up and raped, it’s hard to negotiate for condom use by an HIV-infected partner,” Campbell observes.
SOURCE: Johns Hopkins University School of Nursing
What’s cool in Japan right now? Well, maybe “cool” is no longer the correct word. Warm, cute, and cuddly things seem to be what’s captured the imaginations of Japanese consumers.
In addition to fashion, food, and travel articles, “Trends in Japan” features stories showing some general directions in technology, the environment, and society. Recent items include:
- A robot in the form of a cute plush-toy baby seal provides comfort for the elderly. The therapeutic robot, called Paro, includes a suite of sensors enabling it to respond to touch and to simple spoken greetings.
- A team of three young ladies were named “Ambassadors of Cuteness” to represent Japan’s vibrant pop culture abroad, promoting a move away from traditional imagery and toward that popularized by anime and manga art forms.
- A new online game called “Ichige” (Location Games) for smart-phone users; winners earn virtual currency based on how far they travel. The game has become popular among young workers and students with long daily commutes.
- A mobile water desalination unit called Courier Water to help alleviate growing water shortages in developing countries. The system also promises to help in areas struck by natural disasters.
* THE BIOPOLITICS OF POPULAR CULTURE: The Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technology is sponsoring a one-day seminar on December 4 to explore the impacts of science fiction film, TV, and other popular media on shaping our perception of new technologies and our images of the future. Among the participants are futurist Jamais Cascio, author David Brin, science-fiction critic Annalee Newitz, and filmmakers Richard Kroehling, Michael Masucci, and Matthew Patrick. The seminar will be held at EON Reality in Irvine, California. DETAILS AND REGISTRATION:
* PATHWAYS TO A NEW FUTURE: An “intense, hands-on” workshop led by Don Beck and John Petersen will explore large-scale change and map the pathways to a future new world. Be prepared to “tackle some of the biggest questions related to transitioning to a new world.” The workshop, “Designing the Architecture of a Global Transition,” will be held December 11 and 12 at The Country Inn in Berkeley Springs, West Virginia. DETAILS:
* DIRTY ROTTEN STRATEGIES, a new book by Ian I. Mitroff and Abraham Silvers, shows you how to avoid solving the wrong problems and to detect when others, either organizations or individuals, may be leading you astray. Former U.S. Secretary of Labor Robert B. Reich describes the book as “a lucid and thoughtful account of why we fail to be adequately lucid and thoughtful—and what we can do about it." ORDER:
* 2020 VISIONARIES: The January-February 2010 issue of THE FUTURIST launches a special series of articles on “2020 Visionaries,” offering profiles and interviews of some of the world’s cutting-edge thinkers in a wide range of influential fields. First up are education and health care. The issue will be mailed to WFS members on November 30. JOIN or RENEW now to be sure you’ll receive your copy!
* PRIVACY VS. PERFECTIBILITY: The latest video on the WFS YouTube channel is an excerpt from bioethicist Arthur L. Caplan’s presentation at WorldFuture 2009. In this clip, Caplan explains that eliminating the right to privacy carried in Roe v. Wade could potentially allow government to mandate the use "designer baby" technologies. WATCH:
FUTURIST OF THE YEAR AWARDS: The World Future Society is now accepting nominations for outstanding futurist of the year. The Society is seeking candidates at both the professional and “young futurist” levels, whose work in the past year has advanced the understanding of foresight principles and techniques or demonstrated the successful application of foresight.
The deadline for nominations is December 31. Professional Members of the World Future Society will then be invited to vote on selected nominees, and a total of five finalists in each category will be submitted to the board of directors. The awards will be presented at WorldFuture 2010, the Society’s annual meeting in Boston.
For details or to submit a nomination, visit Futurist of the Year Awards
_____________________________________________________________
Feedback
1.18.2009
At first it seemed terrific that the online newsletter was designed to reach a younger, broader audience. Although I missed Future Survery, I thought the widely accessible content and a lighter tone were strategic means to draw new readers. But the latest issue plummets to an unacceptably low level.
The mocking "humor" of the so called Fashion Solution article cannot be justified on any grounds. The real story here is that women workers are standing up for themselves! They are insisting on work clothes that fit, not "fashionable" work clothes. Instead your writer adds a middle school twist: men's work clothes don't fit
women-- snicker, snicker; 13 year old boys may find this amusing, but not your audience. Worse is the repeated idea that more fashionable garments will attract more women (feather brains that they are) to the working professions. As if.
The story about HIV/AIDS now affecting equal numbers of men and women was even more appalling. "Achieving parity" indeed. What was your staff thinking?
Ideas for positive change pop up every day-- just follow the work of architect Eugene Tsui. Finland is full of promising IT ideas. Jane Jacobs' ideas are coming alive at last in neighborhoods everywhere.
The Ray Hurzweill-Bill Joy debates re the utopian and distopian potential of IT is always amusing and often intriguing. Surely you can find more worthy topics, and refrain from giving them a
Neanderthal-- OK, 1950's-- twist.
Sincerely,
Robin Standish
1.18.2009
I always look forward to a broad balance of topics with ideas and options on how to make them actionable.
Because I depend on your excellence, I have to say, this issue seemed below par, and light on “actionable”**.
I know the topics had validity, and the horrible outcomes also break my heart, but, if I were a Grinch, I could (overstatement for sake of illustration) say “Another Empty Global Warming Complaint” with no actionable path; then not One, but Two items on women being victims and complaining (Oh Pleazzzze – enough!!!) Don’t women select their own clothes??? Come on… Anything can be dramatized and anyone can be demonized. (Hey, men have complaints too – if they ever had a chance to get a word in…)
Please don’t become “just a political grinding mechanism”.
Now - Low-cost, portable water desalination (or purification) – we can save many lives there! (Trends in Japan)
Best Regards,
George
1.18.2009
JAPANESE ROBOT IS CUTE BUT OLD
"PARO" is history to roboticists. Heck, the late 1998 "My Real Baby" by Hasbro was more impressive, but, lacked the federal funding Japan awards any robotics.
John E. Fidler
johnfidler1 'at' hotmail.com
In This Issue:
* Materialism in the Nonmaterial World
* Fire-Resistant Building Material
* Doctors’ Attitudes May Affect Obese Patients’ Health
* Click of the Month: Trends Map
* News for the Futurist Community
* What’s Hot @WFS.org: Futurist of the Year Nominations
How many customers have you served at your café on Facebook, and how many friends have gifted you fertilizer or plants on FarmVille? The growing movement of social activity in the virtual world includes a great deal of very real economic activity, report researchers at the Helsinki Institute for Information Technology.
While many futurists believe that the growth of virtual worlds would encourage movement away from consumption, materialism is apparently trumping nonmaterialism. As people spend more time online socializing, they are also spending real money, such as making micropurchases of heart or balloon icons to favor their friends, family, or celebrity idols.
The reason is simple: Humans behave as humans whether it is in the corporeal world or online, notes infotech researcher Vili Lehdonvirta. What we buy proclaims our identity and denotes our status, and we want to have status online just as we do in real life.
The advantage that consumption may have in the nonmaterial world is that it permits economic activity with reduced environmental impacts, says Lehdonvirta.
SOURCE: Helsinki Institute for Information Technology
A newly developed building material that is fire-resistant and as versatile as concrete, yet does not explode at super-hot temperatures as concrete does, could offer future builders a very safe and flexible option.
Liquid Granite was created by scientists at Sheffield Hallam University in Great Britain and is available from Liquid Granite Ltd. The material includes between 30% and 70% recycled materials and uses less cement than traditional concrete products, thus reducing its carbon footprint.
Use of the new material may be especially promising in buildings at high risk for fires, such as power stations, and in commercial and residential buildings where it could give more time for evacuation, according to developers.
SOURCE: Sheffield Hallam University Centre of Infrastructure Management
Plans are under way for WorldFuture 2010: Sustainable Futures, Strategies, and Technologies, to be held in Boston, July 8-10, at the Westin Boston Waterfront Hotel.
Join a thousand forward-thinking men and women from around the world to discuss issues like the “other” health-care reform, with futurist Jay Herson, and collective intelligence, featuring Millennium Project participants such as Jerome C. Glenn, Theodore J. Gordon, Tikku Mohan, Frank Catanzaro, and Jack Park.
Other recently confirmed speakers include city-planning expert Anthony Flint; educator Gary Marx, president of the Center for Public Outreach; NetLab director Barry Wellman; and consulting futurist David Pearce Snyder. You’ll also hear inventors Ray Kurzweil and Stephen Thaler, health futurist Kevin Fickenscher, and media experts Michael Rogers, Lee Rainie, and Michael R. Nelson.
Panel sessions, workshops, and stimulating keynote presentations will focus on what we mean by “sustainable futures,” what paths may lead us there, and what strategies and technologies we may be able to use to create the futures we aspire to achieve.
Obesity carries its own health risks, but doctors' negative attitudes toward their obese patients may be making matters worse, according to a study by Mary Margaret Huizinga, an assistant professor of general internal medicine at Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine.
Huizinga's study found that, with each 10-point increase in patients' body-mass index, the prevalence of doctors' low opinion increased by 14%. Huizinga also observed the effects of this negative bias firsthand in her work at an obesity clinic: "By the end of the visit [my patients] would be in tears, saying 'no other physician talked with me like this before. No one listened to me,'” she reports.
Other studies have shown that doctors who respect their patients tend to provide more information, and that patients who do not feel respected tend to avoid seeking doctors' advice. Huizinga believes the next step in research is to discover how physician attitudes affect obese patient outcomes, and then to incorporate the awareness of that bias into the medical school curriculum.
SOURCE: Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine
Trends Map offers a real-time visual state-of-the-world report on the hot topics being posted on Twitter.
What is the world tweeting about right now? On one day in early October, Manila was talking about “Typhoon Parma,” and Winnipeg was into all things “artificial”: artificial life, artificial organs, etc. Americans on the east coast were saying good morning to the world and talking about reality star Kim Kardashian.
Trends Map is “a little Web startup workshop operating out of Melbourne, Australia,” and owned by Stateless Systems.
The immediate “futures” application of real-time Twitter trends is not yet clear, but consulting futurist Jennifer Jarratt suggests that tracking key words around the globe “might create a map of regional concerns,” and then futurists could track those trends over time.
* INNOVATION AWARD FOR KURZWEIL: WorldFuture 2010 speaker Ray Kurzweil has been selected by The Economist magazine to receive the 2009 Economist Innovation Award in the category of Computing and Telecommunication. The citation honors Kurzweil for his optical character recognition and speech recognition technologies. The awards, described as the “Oscars of Innovation,” celebrate individual innovators whose work has had the greatest impact on business and/or society. DETAILS
* SMART GLOBALIZATION REPORT: The Institute for Alternative Futures has released a new report advocating increased emphasis on creating opportunities for the world’s poor and underdeveloped communities. Government, industry, and development foresight activities rarely take into account how social, technological, and environmental trends affect the poor, says IAF Chairman Clement Bezold. “We believe that the application of pro-poor foresight for envisioning the future of human development is crucial for ensuring long-term prosperity and sustainability,” says Bezold. “It is also the right thing to do.” DETAILS
* KEEPING UP WITH FUTURES STUDIES: Enrollment has increased at the University of Houston’s graduate program in futures studies, and the program has added more ways for current students and alumni to stay connected. In addition to a monthly newsletter from program coordinator Peter Bishop are a community timeline added to the Houston Futures site and a program activities timeline and map here:
FUTURIST OF THE YEAR AWARDS: The World Future Society is now accepting nominations for outstanding futurist of the year. The Society is seeking candidates at both the professional and “young futurist” levels, whose work in the past year has advanced the understanding of foresight principles and techniques or demonstrated the successful application of foresight.
The deadline for nominations is December 31. Professional Members of the World Future Society will then be invited to vote on selected nominees, and a total of five finalists in each category will be submitted to the board of directors. The awards will be presented at WorldFuture 2010, the Society’s annual meeting in Boston.
For details or to submit a nomination, visit Futurist of the Year Awards
In This Issue:
* Early Spring Warning: Blooms Too Soon?
* Artificial Intelligence Aids Diagnosis
* Denmark Offers Educational “Green” Vacations
* Click of the Month: Futurity
* News for the Futurist Community
* What's Hot @WFS.ORG
By 2080, some of the world's flowers could be blooming as much as two months earlier than they do today, warn researchers studying data from the Royal Botanic Garden in Edinburgh. The earlier blooming would throw other plant and animal life out of synch.
Plants adjust the timing of flowering to adapt to changes in local climate; for every 1 degree Celsius change in climate, blossoming may begin 11 days earlier, according to mathematician Robert Clark of Monash University in Australia and geoscientist Roy Thompson of the University of Edinburgh.
Recent climate-change models foresee a median rise of 5.2 degrees in the earth’s surface temperature--double the warming rate projected just six years ago. This would lead to dramatic desynchronization between the early bloomers and other less-quickly changing species, the researchers predict.
SOURCE: “Predicting the Impact of Global Warming on the Timing of Spring Flowering” by Robert Clark and Roy Thompson, INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Wiley-Blackwell, 2009. DOl 10.1002/JOC.2004. Web site
Mayo Clinic researchers have developed an artificial-intelligence program that could help reduce invasive diagnostic testing on patients suspected of having cardiac infections.
The software is an artificial neural network that responds to unique situations based on accumulated knowledge, just as doctors do.
The program underwent three separate trainings to learn how to evaluate symptoms of endocarditis--infection of the heart's valves and chambers. Diagnosis typically involves an invasive and risky procedure, with a probe inserted into the patient's esophagus.
The program was tested retrospectively on known cases, and made correct diagnoses "most of the time," with 99% confidence levels, the researchers report.
SOURCE: Mayo Clinic
Plans are under way for the World Future Society’s 2010 conference in Boston, to be held July 8-10 at the Westin Boston Waterfront Hotel. The theme will be Sustainable Futures, Strategies, and Technologies.
Among the estimated 150 speakers will be inventors Ray Kurzweil and Stephen Thaler, health futurist Kevin Fickenscher, public affairs specialist Anthony Flint, and media experts Janna Quitney Anderson, Michael Rogers, Lee Rainie, and Michael R. Nelson.
Panel sessions, workshops, and stimulating keynote presentations will focus on what we mean by “sustainable futures,” what paths may lead us there, and what strategies and technologies we may be able to use to create the futures we aspire to achieve.
Denmark, which will host the UN Climate Change conference in December, has established an EnergyTours Network so visiting politicians, business leaders, and facilities managers can take an educational tour of the country's innovative sustainability programs.
The Danes have been among the world's pioneers in energy projects, with 15.5% of the country's gross electricity consumption met by renewable sources. Danish cities are also bicycle-friendly, and "green consciousness" has largely been integrated into daily life.
The EnergyTours program aims to help give international policy makers "a behind-the-scenes look at how Denmark does green." Visits include wave-machine installations, municipal buildings designed for low carbon emissions, and a region where 70,000 people receive electricity entirely from renewable sources.
SOURCES: EnergyTours Network
Duke University researchers mapped a baby’s retina for signs of blindness. Iowa State University scientists found a way to breed a better cow from the embryo up. And Emory University researchers observing chimpanzee behavior gained a better understanding of empathy, suggesting new therapeutic approaches for children with autism.
These are among the latest breakthroughs reported on Futurity, a new site offering one-stop shopping for scientific news emerging from U.S. and Canadian colleges and universities. Futurity is the result of a partnership of more than 35 institutions aiming to disseminate news about science, engineering, environmental issues, health breakthroughs, and more.
As mainstream news media struggle for revenue and readership, reporting on science news and research has diminished in recent years. Research institutes and universities have adapted to the new media environment by increasingly using iTunes and YouTube, for instance, to get their information out to the public.
Futurity is “ad-free and agenda-free,” according to co-founder Lisa Lapin, assistant vice president for communications at Stanford University, but the site will also expand its reach by partnering with major commercial portals such as Yahoo News.
The World Future Society has launched several exciting projects in recent years, including a Global Youth Foresight Program, a revamped Professional Membership program with its new journal WORLD FUTURE REVIEW, and a variety of multimedia and outreach programs under development.
Trends in the global economy have taken their toll on nonprofit organizations like the Society, so we need your help to sustain our current work and pursue our long-term goals of providing the methodologies, the networks, the information, and the inspiration to help all people build a better future for themselves, their businesses, and their descendants.
Donations to the World Future Society are tax deductible on U.S. tax returns. Please consider a generous donation now!
SUPPORT THE SOCIETY: Contributors donating $50 or more will receive a complimentary WFS tote bag!
GOODSHOP FOR WFS
THE SINGULARITY SUMMIT 2009—THINKING ABOUT THINKING: The Singularity Summit will be held October 3-4, 2009, at the 92nd Street Y, 1395 Lexington Avenue, New York, New York.
The Summit is an annual event to further understanding and discussion about the Singularity concept and the future of human technological progress. It was founded in 2006 as a venue for leading thinkers—whether scientist, enthusiast, or skeptic—to explore the subject.
Speakers at this year's summit include PayPal founder Peter Thiel, longevity author Aubrey de Grey, and inventor and futurist Ray Kurzweil, among others. Register at http://www.singularitysummit.com/
READ THE FUTURIST’s exclusive interview with Singularity Institute President Michael Vassar:
The World Future Society is a media partner for the Singularity Summit.
* UNDERSTANDING THE TRANSFORMATION: The fifth European Futurists Conference will be held October 14-16 in Lucerne, Switzerland. The meeting, “Visioning 20.20--Escaping the Age of Stupid: Necessary Transformation Beyond the Turmoil,” aims to bring civilization out of its worst crisis since the Great Depression.
* DESIGN FOR LIFE: DesignBoost 2009 will be held October 14 through November 15 in Malm, Sweden, offering exhibitions and lectures open to the public, plus workshops for architects, designers, and others working toward creating more-sustainable human habitats—and better future lives for all. DETAILS
* NEW DIMENSIONS OF CONSUMER LIFE: Social Technologies’ upcoming Futures Consortium meeting (November 9-10 in Washington, D.C.) “will explore emerging consumer need states and bring insights to life via archetypal personas.” What do businesses need to know about the values and needs of their customers as the economy and society change? CONTACT Don Abraham or Chris Carbone
* RICHARD S. KIRBY (1949-2009): The World Future Society was saddened to learn of the recent death of a great friend and supporter. Richard Kirby was a frequent speaker at WFS conferences and a contributor to its publications. His unique perspective united spirituality and prospective thinking, offering an optimistic yet realistic worldview. He died on September 24 at his home in Seattle; he will be greatly missed. DETAILS World Network of Religious Futurists
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* FUTURIST senior editor Patrick Tucker was a big hit on “CBS Sunday Morning” on its 30th anniversary program September 6. He assured CBS correspondent Tracy Smith that the future will be okay without flying cars and jet packs. WATCH
Episode Recap
* 3-FOR-2 FALL SALE! The World Future Society has announced a special membership deal for both Regular Membership and Professional Membership: Join (or renew) at the regular price for two years and get your third year free! Plan ahead, save money, and never miss a single issue of THE FUTURIST (or WORLD FUTURE REVIEW for Professionals). This special offer expires on October 16. ACT NOW
* OUTLOOK 2010, living in the postliterate age, climate change and the information "haves" versus "have nots," and why we may turn to nuclear energy: These stories plus World Trends & Forecasts, Tomorrow in Brief, book reviews, and more are in the November-December 2009 issue of THE FUTURIST. JOIN NOW or renew your membership in the World Future Society so you won't miss a thing!
In This Issue:
* Healthy Sex Life Improves Career Prospects
* Online Textbook Lightens Backpacks
* Life Expectancy Increases in U.S.
* Click of the Month: Live Ethical Quote
* News for the Futurist Community
* What's Hot @WFS.ORG: Back from the Future
Times may be tough, but anthropologist and Chemistry.com founder Helen Fisher has found a bright side: Work on your sex life, and you may improve your career prospects.
Sexual activity increases the rush of dopamine in the brain, which also contributes to enhanced creativity and problem solving, Fisher explains.
Other beneficial chemicals boosted by sex include oxytocin and vasopressin, which generate feelings of trust and attachment—the perfect prescription for better team work. And of course there's testosterone, which improves self-confidence in both men and women. In higher doses, it stimulates competitiveness and, hence, productivity.
SOURCE: Helen Fisher, Chemistry.com
As students head back to school this fall, California will become the first state to offer free, open-source, online textbooks for high-school students.
One of the first texts approved for the program is Advanced Algebra II by Raleigh, North Carolina, math teacher Kenny Felder and submitted through Rice University's open-education program, Connexions.
The move toward free online curricula could be a boon for states facing severe budget restrictions—and for students facing textbook overload in their backpacks.
"Everyone is looking to cut costs over the next couple of years, but the real beauty of open-educational resources like Kenny Felder's book is that they provide the foundation for a step-change in the quality of education in the United States," says Connexions executive director Joel Thierstein.
SOURCE: Connexions View results of The Free Digital Textbook Initiative
Plans are under way for the World Future Society’s 2010 conference in Boston, to be held July 8-10 at the Westin Boston Waterfront Hotel.
Panel sessions, workshops, and stimulating keynote presentations will focus on what we mean by “sustainable futures,” what paths may lead us there, and what strategies and technologies we may be able to use to create the futures we aspire to achieve.
Join a thousand forward thinkers from around the world to learn from an estimated 150 speakers, like inventors Ray Kurzweil and Stephen Thaler, health futurist Kevin Fickenscher, and media experts Michael Rogers, Lee Rainie, and Michael R. Nelson.
Both life expectancy and the mortality rate have made records in the United States, reports the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Men and women are living longer than ever (75.3 years and 80.4 years respectively), and the age-adjusted death rate dropped to a record low of 760.3 deaths per 100,000 population, according to the latest report from CDC's National Center for Health Statistics, "Deaths: Preliminary Data for 2007."
Another record: For the first time, life expectancy for black males reached 70 years, according to the report. The gap between white and black males (5.3 years) is now nearly equal to the gap between males and females (5.1 years).
Heart disease and cancer remain the top two causes of death, accounting for 48.5% of U.S. mortality. Deaths from HIV/AIDS experienced the biggest one-year decline (10%) since 1998.
SOURCE: CDC
www.covalence.ch/index.php/products/services/live-ethicalquote/
How ethical is the company that wants to do business with you, or that you want to buy products from? Searching the Internet for clues about a company's reputation can lead to spotty or misleading information.
With its Live EthicalQuote feature, research consultant group Covalence offers a scorecard based on thousands of news stories—good, bad, and ugly—about more than 500 companies in 18 sectors. The quotes are updated daily based on evaluations by an international team of ethical analysts.
Note that the free public version does not include information from the last 12 months. Up-to-the-moment quotes are available only to Covalence clients and subscribers.
THE SINGULARITY SUMMIT 2009—THINKING ABOUT THINKING: The Singularity Summit will be held October 3-4, 2009, at the 92nd Street Y, 1395 Lexington Avenue, New York, New York.
The Summit is an annual event to further understanding and discussion about the Singularity concept and the future of human technological progress. It was founded in 2006 as a venue for leading thinkers—whether scientist, enthusiast, or skeptic—to explore the subject.
Speakers at this year's summit include PayPal founder Peter Thiel, longevity author Aubrey de Grey, and inventor and futurist Ray Kurzweil, among others. Register at http://www.singularitysummit.com/
The World Future Society is a proud media partner for the Singularity Summit.
* PREVIEW WEEKEND FOR STRATEGIC FORESIGHT: Considering a degree in strategic foresight? Regent University in Virginia Beach, Virginia, is offering a preview weekend November 11-14. Tour the campus and learn about the undergraduate and graduate degree programs that will prepare you for a career as a professional futurist. DETAILS or contact @drjaygary on Twitter.
* WEB 2.0 AS DISTANCE LEARNING’S “GREEN SOLUTION”: Youngstown State University’s second annual Distance Education Conference, to be held Friday, October 16, in Youngstown, Ohio, will focus on how Web 2.0 and other technologies are changing distance education. Invited guest speaker is Ohio Vice Chancellor Barbara Gellman-Danley. DETAILS, or in Second Life.
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* WFS PRESIDENT ON TECH TUESDAY WEBINAR: Tim Mack speaks on the Strategic Value of Foresight for Business in the August 25 episode of FIATECH’s Tech Tuesday Webinar series. DETAILS
* TWEETS TO PONDER: A few interesting questions have recently landed in World Future Society’s Twitter feeds:
@davidhodgson (via @ken_homer) Question: How will your great-grandchildren assess your effectiveness in passing on a healthy world to them?
@maxmarmer Do you think there is a correlation btwn being an entrepreneur and being athletic at a young age? Seems like mindset/skillset transfer
@mennovandoorn Should companies start their real life soap and broadcast to become authentic and transparent?
@gleonhard More comments on the debate about the new Altnet/Kazaa p2p system - back to the stone ages of digital content? http://ow.ly/kZjV
Join in the conversations at http://twitter.com/WorldFutureSoc (WFS and futurist community news) and http://twitter.com/Theyear2030 (news tips from The Futurist magazine).
In This Issue...
* Skills Gap Is Widening
* The End May Be Near for Big Tobacco
* The Millennium Project’s Latest Projects
* Click of the Month: The World Mind Network
* News for the Futurist Community
* What's Hot @WFS.ORG: Back from the Future
Since the global recession has forced many employers to cut costs—including labor costs—one area may need a resurgence of investment: training.
U.S. employers continue to struggle with finding new hires who have not just the basic skills, but also higher-level critical thinking and creativity skills, according to a new report from The Conference Board. Since the education system is not supplying young workers with these skills, companies may have to devote more of their own resources to bringing workers up to their required skill levels.
Some options include providing internships and working more closely with community colleges. The goal should be to prepare workers before they go out into the job market.
"It is a losing strategy for employers to try to fill the workforce readiness gap on the job. They need to be involved much sooner to prepare new employees to succeed," according to Donna Klein of Corporate Voices for Working Families, which worked with The Conference Board on the report.
SOURCE: The Conference Board
http://www.conference-board.org/utilities/pressDetail.cfm?press_ID=3693
EDITOR'S NOTE: For more on future jobs and the talent shortage, see the September-October 2009 issue of THE FUTURIST featuring John Challenger, Edward Gordon, and Alexandra Levit.
The recent move by the Obama administration to put tobacco regulation under the jurisdiction of the Food and Drug Administration was hailed by leading tobacco experts as another step forward in the 100-year march toward eradicating tobacco consumption in the United States.
Tobacco use has declined from 42% of the U.S. adult population in 1965 to 20% in 2007, thanks to taxation, restrictions on advertising, and warning labels, according to researchers Michael Fiore and Timothy Baker of the University of Wisconsin–Madison.
To accelerate this trend, the researchers urge regulators to increase excise taxes on tobacco, eliminate nicotine in all tobacco products, ban all cigarette advertising (including sponsorships and other promotional activities), and provide counseling and medication for every smoker who wants to quit.
“The progress made in reducing tobacco use over the last 50 years should in no way temper our commitment to further reductions," says Fiore. "If appropriate steps are taken, a tobacco-free nation can be achieved within a few decades.”
SOURCES: University of Wisconsin–Madison
http://www.news.wisc.edu/releases/15373
“Stealing a March in the 21st Century” by Michael C. Fiore and Timothy B. Baker, AMERICAN JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH (June 2009)
http://www.ajph.org/cgi/content/abstract/99/7/1170
FDA and Tobacco Regulation
http://www.fda.gov/TobaccoProducts/GuidanceComplianceRegulatoryInformati...
If you're reading FUTURIST UPDATE only, you're not benefiting from the valuable trends, forecasts, perspectives, insights, assessments, reviews, interviews, and overviews found in THE FUTURIST magazine, the principal benefit of World Future Society membership.
For just $59 per year ($20 for students), you'll increase your futures knowledge by 600% (360 pages a year of THE FUTURIST versus 60 pages of UPDATE).
Learn more about THE FUTURIST and WFS membership programs and benefits at http://www.wfs.org/member.htm
The Millennium Project's annual STATE OF THE FUTURE report this year brings added excitement to our field, as it is joined by the release of the newest version of the comprehensive FUTURES RESEARCH METHODOLOGY CD-ROM.
FRM Version 3.0 is a 1,300-page collection of peer-reviewed chapters fully describing the most important tools that should be in every futurist's kit, including Delphi polling, trend-impact analysis, scenarios, scenario planning, "robust" decision making, "genius" forecasting, and more.
2009 STATE OF THE FUTURE comprises a 100-page paperback serving as an executive summary and a CD-ROM containing some 6,700 pages of research, offering the most comprehensive look at the challenges and opportunities we now face.
Both of these valuable publications bring futures researchers the most up-to-date, comprehensive, and authoritative information available on not just where we are going, but how we will get there.
The Millennium Project
http://www.millennium-project.org/
http://theworldmindnetwork.net
Lest you still think social networking on the Web is a waste of your time, here is an opportunity to deploy the real world-changing tools of the likes of Facebook, Twitter, and Skype.
Among the projects established by World Mind Network members are a forum for improving science education co-moderated by Nobel laureate Peter Doherty (1996, Physiology or Medicine) and an interactive blog on the world economic crisis co-hosted by another Nobelist, Edmund Phelps (2006, Economics).
Music and literature also offer ripe opportunities for social networking on the site, including poetry challenges to fit the 140-character limitations of Twitter (though I confess I thought I'd never see a tweet as lovely as a tree.)
* BRAZIL HOSTS CONFERENCE ON INNOVATION MANAGEMENT: The VI ICIM 2009—International Conference on Innovation Management will be held December 8–10 in São Paulo. The focus will be on the issues, challenges and opportunities of adopting sustainable development and its systemic approach. Speakers include such prominent international futurists and thinkers as Hazel Henderson, Jerome C. Glenn, David Harries, Paul Werbos, Zhouying Jin, and many others. Deadline for submitting papers is August 31.
DETAILS: http://www.pucsp.br/icim/
Prof. Dr. Arnoldo de Hoyos, arnoldodehoyos@yahoo.com.br.
* SYMPOSIUM ON THE FUTURE: The New Media Consortium (NMC) will host a virtual Symposium for the Future, a live online event, October 27–29, 2009. Keynote speakers Gardner Campbell of Baylor University; Beth Kanter, social media activist; invited speaker Anne Haywood, NMC program consultant to the National Geographic Society; and colleagues from around the world will explore the emerging shape of education over the next five years and beyond. DETAILS and REGISTRATION: http://www.nmc.org/2009-future-symposium
* HOUSTON'S FUTURES EDUCATION PROGRAM GROWS: The successful transition of University of Houston's futures program to the central campus has resulted in growth. This fall, program director Peter Bishop will be joined by economist Kay Strong, now a futurist by training. She will work to infuse futures thinking into the undergraduate curriculum building toward a UH minor in futures studies. Strong will continue working with teachers in Houston area schools to help futurize their courses. DETAILS: http://houstonfutures.wetpaint.com/
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What"s Hot @WFS.ORG
WorldFuture 2009, the Society's conference in Chicago (July 17–19), is now history, but we hope participants left with many stimulating new ideas and energy for a variety of projects ahead.
* Opening the conference was GROWN UP DIGITAL author Don Tapscott, who outlined the many changes that our institutions need to make to enable the "Net generation" to succeed. "We do everything the opposite," he said, such as taking away all the collaborative tools that young people use to augment their learning processes. "Give them a license to self-organize.... Give them the feedback they need and want to get better." View excerpt from Tapscott's presentation. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aNWrBns_KRA
* Bioethicist Arthur Caplan explained why the abortion debate will be supplanted by new debates over whether to use genetic technologies to enhance our children. He warned that those urging the overturning of Roe v. Wade would theoretically be allowing government in the future to mandate that parents use technologies to perfect their children, throwing out the right to have imperfect children along with their right to privacy. Caplan is co-editor of THE PENN CENTER GUIDE TO BIOETHICS (Springer, 2009). Order from Amazon. http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0826115225/thefuturistbooks
* In what many attendees called the meeting's scariest presentation, law professor Barry Kellman detailed the imminent threat of bioviolence: conflicts fought with new weapons that "have the capacity to do far more damage than nuclear weapons." Viruses such as smallpox, polio, or the measles could be synthesized or genetically manipulated to be impervious to vaccines and released intentionally into the public. Kellman argued for a global covenant among scientists to prevent this scenario.
* Workplace futurist John A. Challenger noted that many of our concerns today, such as labor shortages, immigration, retirement, and globalization, are not new trends, but the recession has put them in a new context. For instance, when baby boomers saw their retirement savings disappear, many stayed in the workforce and thus helped alleviate labor shortages. The three big areas of future job growth, he said, are health care, energy, and global business. See his article, along with that of fellow conference speaker Edward Gordon, in the September-October 2009 FUTURIST. View an excerpt of Challenger's presentation. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2E9ZtzqVWkY
* An experiment in live reporting during the conference via Twitter attracted several participants, who offered their immediate impressions of various sessions and links to longer reports on their own Web sites. Surf the tweets and re-tweets at www.twitter.com/worldfuturesoc
In This Issue...
* Making Disasters Less Disastrous
* Earth Science Literacy
* Rapid Virus Detection
* Click of the Month: Engineer Your Life
* News for the Futurist Community
* What’s Hot @WFS.ORG
The UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction has called on governments and regional organizations around the world to invest in the means necessary to reduce natural-disaster-related deaths by one-half by 2015.
Measures recommended for meeting these death-reduction goals, as well as reducing economic losses, include:
* By 2010, earmark at least 10% of humanitarian and reconstruction funding to disaster-risk-reduction programs.
* By 2011, evaluate schools and hospitals for structural soundness; by 2015, have firm action plans for safer schools in disaster-prone countries.
* By 2015, use building and land-use codes to enforce disaster-risk-reduction measures in all major cities in disaster-prone areas.
The critical factor will be funding the necessary investments. "Put bluntly, many countries must dedicate more funds from national budgets—or suffer the consequences," according to John Holmes, UN under-secretary-general for humanitarian affairs.
SOURCE: International Strategy for Disaster Reduction
http://www.unisdr.org/
Climate change, resource depletion, and other trends in the earth's systems will dramatically affect all our futures, so it is increasingly imperative that citizens understand what's going on and what we can do about it. The National Science Foundation's Division of Earth Sciences has thus launched a new initiative to promote literacy in the geosciences.
"It's important that every citizen have knowledge of the fundamental concepts of Earth science such that he or she may make informed and responsible decisions about public issues—from climate change to energy, from natural resources to earthquake hazards," says director Robert Detrick. "The Earth Science Literacy Initiative is a very important effort to convey this information about Earth science to the general public."
DETAILS: Earth Science Literacy Initiative
http://www.earthscienceliteracy.org/
It's easy enough to avoid people who are obviously sick, but what if they've just been infected and aren't showing symptoms yet? An infection could spread and endanger many before anyone's been diagnosed.
A portable, ultrasensitive virus detector could perceive a virus within just five minutes, using samples of an individual's saliva, blood, or other body fluid. The device, under development at the University of Twente in the Netherlands, contains an array of receptors such as antibodies that will bind to microorganisms in the sample, thus creating a detectable interference pattern, like a fingerprint.
The ability to detect viruses almost instantly in clinics or other places without access to laboratories and trained personnel could be a boon to preventing future epidemics. The device can also detect bacteria, proteins, and DNA molecules. The university's spin-off company, Ostendum, plans to introduce the first detector to market in late 2010.
SOURCE: University of Twente
http://www.utwente.nl/
http://www.engineeryourlife.org/
"Imagine what life would be like without pollution controls to preserve the environment, life-saving medical equipment, or low-cost building materials for fighting global poverty. All this takes engineering," states the National Academy of Engineering's Web site for high-school girls and the adults in their lives.
Engineering is vital to problem solving and, as a career, offers an opportunity to make a real difference in the world. Using stories of real women and student peers engaging in these activities, the program encourages more young women to enter the field in all its varieties, such as civil, aeronautic, biomedical, environmental, industrial, and computer engineering.
Resources for counselors, teachers, parents, and adult engineers are also available at the site.
"In very real and concrete ways, women that become engineers save lives, prevent disease, reduce poverty, and protect our planet," it states. "Dream Big. Love what you do. Become an engineer."
BONUS CLICK: http://www.engineergirl.org for middle-school girls.
* FUTURUM: The abstract database of futures research has now been published. Futurum presents abstracts of the most essential and important international futures research and foresight journals. The database does not include complete articles, but users are provided with the complete publishing information and availability data. Futurum is a project of the Finland Futures Research Centre, Turku School of Economics, in Turku, Finland. FREE trial access for one week: Send contact information at http://www.futurumdatabase.com. Further details (PDF).
* MILLENNIUM PROJECT IN CHINA: Futurist Jerome C. Glenn, director of the Millennium Project, returned recently from a trip to China, where he addressed the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and the Ecological Society of China. Glenn offered each group updates to the annual State of the Future report, as well as Futures Research Methodology Version 3.0. He also schooled the Beijing Academy of Science and Technology on the role that conscious technology could play in ensuring the success of China's EcoCities initiatives. DETAILS http://www.millennium-project.org/
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What"s Hot @WFS.ORG
* STUDENT ESSAY CONTEST WINNERS! WFS President Tim Mack has announced the winners of the Society's 2009 essay competition:
- First place, Samantha Palmer (Paul D. Schreiber High School, Port Washington, New York), "Into the Future: A Glimpse of Medical Technology."
- Second place, Jenna Leigh Chiemi Kagimoto (Hawaii Baptist Academy, Honolulu, Hawaii), "In Pursuit of Perfection."
- Third place, Maya Chandrasekaran (Upper St. Clair High School, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania), "Trends in the Global and American Economy."
Congratulations to the winners, and many thanks to all of the participants and evaluators! Look for more details soon at www.wfs.org .
* "FUTURING" ON KINDLE: FUTURING: The Exploration of the Future, is now available on Amazon.com's e-book platform, Kindle. WFS founder Edward Cornish's comprehensive guide to the futures field has been described as a "masterpiece" by Earth Policy Institute president Lester R. Brown and "splendid" by Megatrends author John Naisbitt. More than 2,000 students per year use FUTURING as a primary text at more than 20 colleges and universities. ORDER the Kindle edition
www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0930242610/thefuturistbooks
* TWITTERS FROM THE FUTURIST: Hey there! Theyear2030 is using Twitter. Twitter is a free service that lets you keep in touch with people through the exchange of quick, frequent answers to one simple question: What are you doing? Follow Theyear2030 at THE FUTURIST's page, www.wfs.org/futurist.htm , or follow by joining Twitter today. Go to http://twitter.com/Theyear2030
* WHAT TO CALL THE 2010s DECADE: What will we call the decade coming up, 2010-2019? Will it be the "twenty-tens," "twenty-teens," "two-thousand tens," or something else? What about 2010 through 2012, which aren't "teen" years? Should we call them the "twenty-tweens"? Send your ideas to FUTURIST UPDATE editor Cindy Wagner, mailto:cwagner@wfs.org . And by the way, we still don't know what to call the decade of 2000-2009. Any suggestions?
In This Issue:
* Top 10 Long-Term Challenges
* Avatars That Look Like Us
* Bright Prospects for Blue-Collar Careers
* Living With Purpose
* Click of the Month: Chicago 2016
* What’s Hot @WFS.ORG
Today’s number-one challenge—and opportunity—is to develop a long-term solution for our energy needs, business strategist Peter Schwartz told the 2009 graduating class of Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute. “That means it must be nonpolluting and inexhaustible,” he said.
A peaceful and prosperous world in 2050 is possible, but getting there will require “monumental innovation, collaboration, and leadership,” Schwartz said. The top challenges Schwartz outlined are:
1. Creating long-term solutions to meet our energy demands sustainably.
2. Launching a bio-industrial revolution with sustainable manufacturing.
3. Understanding and enhancing the human brain to avert age-related impairments.
4. Improving agriculture to reduce costs and increase its energy and water efficiency.
5. Building sustainable cities through better urban planning and “smart architecture.”
6. Stimulating job growth and economic development.
7. Fusing the technological with the spiritual and aesthetic dimensions of human culture.
8. Advancing technological instruments to drive scientific discovery forward.
9. Harnessing biological tools to advance human evolution.
10. Discovering new ways to lower the costs and environmental impact of space flight and development.
DETAILS: Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute
http://news.rpi.edu/update.do?artcenterkey=2585
Many of us have long wanted to send out a stunt double to do our dirty work, or clone ourselves so we could be in two places at once. In cyberspace, avatars can serve these purposes, but the typical, manga-inspired cartoon avatars don’t look, talk, or behave much like us.
Now, thanks to improved artificial intelligence, natural language programming, and computer rendering, more lifelike avatars are on the way.
Project LifeLike, a consortium of university computer researchers funded by the National Science Foundation, aims to create visualizations that are specific to an individual, and combine those visualizations with sophisticated artificial intelligence that could also replicate that individual’s responses.
Since much communication is nonverbal, the avatars are also tutored in body language and subtle gestures. Another goal is to enable the avatars to remember and learn from their experiences with live users, thus improving their lifelike communication capabilities.
Potential applications include “recreating” historical figures so that schoolchildren can directly interact with them, making virtual counselors or doctors available when a patient is in crisis, or letting job seekers hone their interviewing skills before confronting that critical face-to-face session.
SOURCE: National Science Foundation
http://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=114828
VIDEO with Project LifeLike leaders Avelino Gonzalez and Jason Leigh
http://www.nsf.gov/news/news_videos.jsp?cntn_id=114828&media_id=65131&or...
Read Patrick Tucker's original 2007 article on Leigh's lab.
http://www.wfs.org/trendja07.htm
The voices of reason (like our parents) have long proclaimed that a college education is the only (or the best) key to future success. That may no longer be true, suggests millionaire landscaper Joe Lamacchia, author of BLUE COLLAR AND PROUD OF IT.
Academia does not suit every temperament, and many industries require different skills than those that one can obtain in a lecture hall, library, or lab. The good news for more hands-on learners and workers is that more jobs are opening for those without a bachelor’s degree.
In the United States, more investment in repairing crumbling infrastructures will create growing demand for skilled trade workers, argues Lamacchia. Especially compelling will be the so-called “green-collar” work in environmentally conscious industries such as hybrid car manufacturing, green construction, organic farming, sustainable fishing, and eco-friendly landscaping.
SOURCE: BLUE COLLAR AND PROUD OF IT by Joe Lamacchia (HCI, 2009) http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0757307787/thefuturistbooks
Many people today feel “caught between the ‘Dow’ and the ‘Tao,’” and seek a more purposeful way of living life in uncertain times, says Ken Dychtwald, founder of Age Wave.
In his new book WITH PURPOSE: Going from Success to Significance in Work and Life, co-written with Daniel J. Kadlec, Dychtwald has attempted to provide guidance for individuals rethinking their priorities in the midst of unanticipated external pressures. What is the meaning of success? How do we use and strengthen our key life-nurturing relationships? And what about retirement?
“In these horrible/wonderful times, I’m hopeful that WITH PURPOSE might give you a new and uplifting perspective,” says Dychtwald.
DETAILS: Age Wave
http://www.agewave.com/
CLICK OF THE MONTH: CHICAGO 2016
http://www.chicago2016.org/our-plan/proposed-venues.aspx
Chicago is not only hosting the World Future Society’s 2009 meeting, but it is also a candidate city for the 2016 Summer Olympics. The city is devoting great energy and creativity to preparing for the Games—and for what the Games will leave behind.
“The City of Chicago’s parks and lakefront have hosted many international celebrations and festivals, including two world’s fairs and the 1959 Pan Am Games,” says the Web site.
Take a tour of Chicago in the year 2016 by clicking on the interactive map of proposed sports facilities in the various neighborhoods, and see how they’ll impact city attractions, such as the Sears Tower, the Art Institute, and the Lincoln Park Conservatory.
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What"s Hot @WFS.ORG
"BLUE OCEAN" STRATEGY FOR KOREA: WFS President Tim Mack recently returned from Seoul, South Korea, where he presented a keynote address at the International Symposium on Blue Economy Initiative for Green Growth, organized by the Millennium Project. Mack outlined the "Blue Ocean Strategy" for simultaneously protecting the Korean coastline, ecosystems, and cultural heritage. "Oceans can offer hope for solutions in many challenging areas," he said, "and 'Blue Oceans' is a powerful innovation metaphor, signifying new resources, markets, relationships, and values."
* GEAR UP FOR THE FUTURE! Wear your heart on your sleeve—and the World Future Society logo on your shirt! Visit the Society’s all new store at Café Press and get your custom-designed T-shirts, tote bags, coffee mugs, and more. “Carpe Futurum! Seize the Future” and tell the world that “The Future Matters.” Remember, WFS products (including memberships) make great gifts for graduates, as well as friends, family, clients, and colleagues.
- SHOP: http://www.cafepress.com/worldfuture
- GIFT MEMBERSHIPS: http://www.wfs.org/giftorder.htm
* HELP PLAN WORLDFUTURE 2010: The World Future Society is already making plans for the 2010 annual meeting, to be held in Boston under the leadership of conference chair Carol D. Rieg, corporate foundation officer of Bentley Systems. The WorldFuture 2010 planning committee seeks your ideas! What should be the conference theme? "Our World in Transition" ... "From Insights to Action" ... "Collective Wisdom, Collaborative Futures"? Send your short, catchy, and inspiring suggestions to mailto:sechard@wfs.org .
* WHAT’S NEXT IN THE FUTURIST: The cover story for July-August is an eye-opening look at prospects for automated invention. Can artificial intelligence really replicate human ingenuity, or will it just take the grunt work out of engineering? Also: What are the real security threats for the next 15 years? Newt Gingrich, Dennis Kucinich, and other international policy experts come to different conclusions. These stories and more in the next issue of THE FUTURIST, to be mailed to members after June 1. RENEW or JOIN now so you won’t miss a thing! www.wfs.org/membership.htm
* EDITOR’S QUERY: NORMATIVE FUTURES. What’s on your wish list for reforming your industry or profession? What policy change, paradigm shift, new technology, or social innovation would create a better future? Please send your ideas (approximately 500 words), along with a brief About the Author note, photo, and your complete contact information, to FUTURIST UPDATE editor Cindy Wagner at mailto:cwagner@wfs.org
In This Issue...
* Increasing Cooperation against Security Threats
* Predicting Freight Traffic
* Battles for Outer Space
* Click of the Month: Emergency Care For You
* News for the Futurist Community
* What’s Hot @WFS.ORG
At the end of the Cold War, when the first U.S. Cooperative Threat Reduction programs to dismantle nuclear weapons were composed, the primary security concern among U.S. officials was the former Soviet Union and its weapons of mass destruction. Now, threats are coming more "from groups that are agile, networked, and adaptable," says the National Research Council, a research association that advises the U.S. government.
In a new report mandated by Congress, the Council recommends a bold vision for cooperative threat reduction that encourages strategic partnerships among agencies both within and beyond the traditional security silos.
The “CTR 2.0” model would engage not just the defense, state, and energy departments in security assessment and risk reduction, but would also include departments and agencies not typically associated with global security threats. For instance, the Agriculture Department would become more involved, as recent threats to food safety and security have illustrated crucial areas of vulnerability.
The model also recommends including the nongovernmental and private sectors, such as academia, corporations, and civil society, all of which are not only stakeholders in national security but also boast expertise and resources vital to threat reduction.
SOURCE: "Global Security Engagement: A New Model for Cooperative Threat Reduction," National Research Council, 2009. Published by the National Academies Press. http://www.nap.edu/
How many trucks will take one route through the state versus another? How much freight will they be carrying? How much traffic will just pass through and how much will stop for deliveries or pickups? And why do these questions matter?
Forecasts for freight traffic matter because efficient movement of goods supports economic growth. Knowing where the heaviest traffic will be matters to transportation departments that must make decisions about where to build new roads or when to schedule highway maintenance—projects that require long-term planning.
Researchers at the University of Alabama in Huntsville have developed a new freight and truck traffic forecasting tool to aid metropolitan planning teams. Their model examines changes in the sizes of populations and key industries, thus showing where local traffic flows may change. It also accounts for pass-through volume—i.e., traffic moving through the region over which the planners have no control. The result is a more accurate picture of freight traffic’s future impacts.
SOURCE: University of Alabama in Huntsville
http://www.uah.edu/insight/insightread.php?newsID=1333
The U.S. military has named the space environment a “special area of emphasis” due to growing international space-based operations.
Attacks on space assets such as satellites are a key concern, but other threats besides weapons attacks exist, such as collisions with space debris and electronic jamming.
“America’s way of life is dependent on space,” notes Colonel Sean D. McClung, director of Air University’s National Space Studies Center. “We have to think about what we would do if our systems in space were attacked—how we determine attribution for the attack, and respond in appropriate manner.”
By declaring the space environment a special area of emphasis, the Defense Department will devote more resources and attention to space in the curricula of professional military colleges.
SOURCE: U.S. Air Force Link, Air University
http://www.af.mil/news/story.asp?id=123142047
http://www.EmergencyCareForYou.org
Imagine this scenario: Your mom falls on the sidewalk, and a kind passerby calls 911. She’s at the hospital now, but the nurses need to know if she’s allergic to the pain medication they want to give her. And if she has diabetes. And whether she’s on Coumadin.
Are you ready to answer these questions on her behalf? Or is a family member ready to answer for you? As the numbers of elderly with chronic health problems grow, the need for caregivers to be prepared for emergencies will increase.
Emergency Care For You, a service of the American College of Emergency Physicians, offers tips for what you may need to know or have with you for a trip to the ER, as well as common medical forms to download and complete, such as lists of current medications, medical histories, advanced medical directives, and insurance information.
Other tips for emergency preparation: Anticipate that the patient will be admitted to the hospital, so bring personal items and a change of clothes; keep a list of doctors’ and specialists’ contact information handy; bring something to read; and bring a notebook to help keep track of what happens, since you may be responsible for conveying information between doctors and the patient.
* CALL FOR ARTICLES: “SO YOU WANT TO TEACH THE FUTURE?” Article submissions are being accepted for a special issue of the Journal of Futures Studies, April 2010 Issue, entitled “So You Want to Teach the Future?” Guest Editor Stephen F. Steele of the Institute for the Future @ AACC (http://www.aacc.edu/future ) is looking for three types of work: (1) articles (roughly 5,000–7,000 words) that provide descriptions, discussions, and case studies of how to “teach” the future—all articles are refereed by two reviewers; (2) shorter (3,000 words or so) anecdotal essays with a spotlight on teaching futures and foresight; and (3) future GIFTs—great ideas for teaching the future. Content of essays and GIFTs will be negotiated between author and editor. The deadline for submissions is November 30, 2009. DETAILS: http://www.aacc.edu/future/callforarticles.cfm
* FUTURES RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 3.0: Coming soon is the latest version of the Millennium Project’s CD-ROM compilation, FUTURES RESEARCH METHODOLOGY. Version 3.0 promises to “be the most comprehensive internationally peer reviewed collection of methods to explore the future ever assembled history,” according to Millennium Project director and co-editor Jerome C. Glenn. With extensively updated and improved chapters as well as new chapters, FRM 3.0 gives you all the tools you need to track, forecast, manage, and mold the world of tomorrow. CONTACT Jerome C. Glenn mailto:jglenn@igc.org
* FUTURES RESEARCHER’S QUERY: As futures researchers, we are naturally interested in the future of many different subjects, such as demography, economy, climate, and technology. But are we looking at the future of our own discipline as well? How will we look at the future in ten years from now? Which methods will we use then? Which position and role will futures researchers have in the future? I am looking for (scientific) studies that address this topic. I am working on a literature review on the future of futures research (studies) and I would like to find out what the common issues are throughout these studies. CONTACT: Dr. Patrick van der Duin, Delft University of Technology, Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, mailto:p.a.vanderduin@tudelft.nl
* BOB FISHER: Longtime WFS supporter and energy specialist Bob Fisher died on March 17 at his home after a long illness. He is survived by his wife, futurist consultant Lauren Huddleston. Both Bob and Lauren have participated at WFS conferences and written for THE FUTURIST. Bob’s last article for the magazine was "The Future of Energy" (September-October 1997), which “provided valuable insights on the need to shift our human values away from the accumulation of wealth toward providing a higher quality of human life,” said FUTURIST editor Edward Cornish.
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* WORLD FUTURE REVIEW’s second issue (April-May 2009) features opposing opinions by Ervin Laszlo and Michael Marien on whether the world is making the quantum leap to a global brain—and whether this would be a good thing. The featured futurist interviewed in this issue is FUTURE SAVVY author Adam Gordon. Other articles cover “The Emerging Inner Solar System Economy” and “Future Systems Engineering and the Role of Complexity.” And in every issue of WFR is Future Survey: abstracts of books, articles, blogs, and reports concerning forecasts, trends, and ideas about the future. JOIN the Professional Membership program of the World Future Society and receive WFR:
* CALL FOR ABSTRACTORS: If you’re a futurist who loves books and are interested in contributing to our field’s knowledge base, consider becoming a Future Survey abstractor for WORLD FUTURE REVIEW. Contact editor Tim Mack at mailto:tmack@wfs.org
* MEMBERSHIP SALE ENDS SOON! The World Future Society is offering a special 2-for-3 membership deal! Join (or renew) at the regular price for two years and get your third year free! Plan ahead, save money, and never miss a single issue of THE FUTURIST (or WORLD FUTURE REVIEW for Professionals). This one-time offer expires on April 30. SAVE NOW:
* THE FUTURIST on EncyclopAedia Britannica.com: Want to know what the World Health Organization’s guidelines on pandemics actually say? Or what Saudi Arabia is doing to rehabilitate terrorists? Or what is being called the newest greenhouse gas threat? Read these stories from THE FUTURIST and others you may have missed at THE FUTURIST magazine’s blog spot on the Encyclopaedia Britannica Web site.
* TWEETS FROM THE YEAR 2030, the Twitter site of THE FUTURIST magazine. Check out THE FUTURIST home page for up-to-the-minute news from 2020, 2030, 2050, and beyond or sign up to follow us on Twitter.
Putting Professors Back in the Classroom
Top Cities with Energy-Efficient Buildings
Reining in Local Government
Click of the Month: Economic Turning Point
News for the Futurist Community
What's Hot @WFS.ORG
The “publish-or-perish” pressure on professors to produce works of scholarship may be undermining education, warns the American Enterprise Institute. Scholarly publishing is growing (despite unimpressive sales trends at academic presses), while undergraduate performance is declining.
According to AEI’s report “Professors on the Production Line, Students On Their Own” by Mark Bauerlein of Emory University, tenure review requires that professors bulk up their CVs with publishing credentials but makes no demands on class time. As young scholars consider academic careers, their eyes turn toward research rather than teaching.
The report, which focuses on trends in literature and the humanities, recommends that donors and foundations earmark more of their funds for undergraduate teaching activities rather than research, and that universities make hiring decisions based on teaching proficiency rather than research expertise.
SOURCE: American Enterprise Institute, Education Policy Studies
www.aei.org/futureofeducation
SEE ALSO: "Professors on the Production Line, Students on Their Own" by Mark Bauerlein, AEI Future of Education Project working paper:
www.aei.org/docLib/20090317_Bauerlein.pdf
When we think of energy efficiency, we usually focus on building better cars or making transportation systems more efficient. But what about building better buildings?
“Energy use in commercial buildings and manufacturing plants accounts for nearly half of total U.S. greenhouse-gas emissions and nearly half of energy consumption nationwide,” reports the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
To shine a spotlight on cities that have improved the efficiency of their commercial and public buildings, the EPA has awarded “Energy Stars” to metro areas that have reduced greenhouse-gas emissions by 35% and use 35% less energy. The top 10 for 2008 are Los Angeles; San Francisco; Houston; Washington, D.C.; Dallas–Fort Worth; Chicago; Denver; Minneapolis–St. Paul; Atlanta; and Seattle.
SOURCE: Energy Star program, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
http://energystar.gov/labeledbuildings
SPECIAL PROFESSIONAL FACULTY
The Mendoza College of Business at the University of Notre Dame invites applications for a Special Professional Faculty position for the 2009-2010 academic year for its required junior-level course: Foresight in Business and Society. This futures course explores business and societal trends, foresight techniques, research methods for forecasting the future, and intervention strategies, especially those focused on sustainability. Additionally, the course requires students to complete a comprehensive research study and paper. More details on the course are available at: http://business.nd.edu/future/ .
Candidates for the Special Professional Faculty position may have backgrounds in a wide range of fields and disciplines. A master’s degree or higher is required, with a Ph.D. preferred. The ideal candidate will have some combination of educational, professional, and/or teaching experience in business, foresight and futuring techniques, and related research and/or teaching experience. The employment contract is renewable and the salary is competitive.
Applicants should submit a cover letter, vita, references and a teaching portfolio which provides evidence of quality teaching. Materials should be sent to:
Professor Tom Frecka
Special Professional Faculty—Futures Studies Course
204 Mendoza College of Businesss
University of Notre Dame, IN 46556-0399
Applications will be accepted until April 1, 2009.
The University of Notre Dame is an equal opportunity and affirmative action employer with a strong commitment to fostering a culturally diverse environment for faculty, staff, and students. Women, minorities, and those attracted to a university with a Catholic identity are encouraged to apply. Information about Notre Dame, including our mission statement is available at http://www.nd.edu .
In the United States, a new local government is born every day. More public institutions may not be a bad thing if people’s views are being represented and needs being served. However, Americans in certain jurisdictions may be overgoverned to the point that their economic and personal freedom is in peril, charges a new study from George Mason University’s Mercatus Center.
The study ranked the 50 U.S. states on fiscal and regulatory policy and on “paternalism,” covering such issues as gambling, alcohol, smoking in public areas, and doctor-assisted suicides. The freest states were Colorado, New Hampshire, Texas, South Dakota, and Idaho, while the least-free were New York, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Maryland, and California.
Even more governance thrives beyond the state level: There are now nearly 90,000 local governments in the United States, according to the Goldwater Institute’s Center for Constitutional Government.
The Center recommends that new local governments focus on ensuring freedom for citizens by providing protections from abusive regulations. The Center recommends that cities enact a Local Liberty Charter guaranteeing basic citizen rights, such as presumption of liberty, use and enjoyment of property, freedom from crime, fiscally responsible government, and freedom from favoritism.
SOURCES: Mercatus Center, George Mason University
www.mercatus.org
Goldwater Institute, Center for Constitutional Government
www.goldwaterinstitute.org
Web 2.0’s networking powers to the rescue? Economic Turning Point is a “nonpartisan global think tank” inviting everyone from homeowners to politicians to disseminate ideas and information and to participate in creating solutions to the global economic crisis.
“We are facing a dramatic restructuring of our economy,” says Edward Thompson, one of the site’s administrators. The goal of bringing all stakeholders together in a nonpartisan forum is to find ways to create a new economy that avoids the problems of the old.
Among the topics recently under discussion are peak oil, the housing crisis, and IT support for the health industry.
“ETP welcomes people from all political persuasions,” says Thompson. “Nonetheless, we will not tolerate stubborn ideology. All ideas are welcome on our Web site; partisan politicking and finger-pointing are not. We are, first and foremost, solution-oriented.”
THE OXFORD SCENARIOS PROGRAMME – Strategic options for success, May 2009
In today’s uncertain business climate, the Oxford Scenarios Programme identifies the critical drivers of changes that are shaping our wider context and, as a consequence, your strategic options for success. Within this all-inclusive four day programme you construct systems diagrams and story maps to describe and understand plausible alternative scenarios which will test your specific decisions, assess the robustness of your organisation and your future strategic plans.
See www.sbs.oxford.edu/scenarios or email mailto:scenarios@sbs.ox.ac.uk
£4,750 ex VAT, Saïd Business School, University of Oxford.
NEWS FOR THE FUTURIST COMMUNITY
* CONFRONTING UNTOUCHABILITY: The first “World Conference on Untouchability” will be held in London June 9-10, organized by the International Humanist and Ethical Union. Social exclusion based on the class into which a person is born persists in Bangladesh, Burma, India, Japan, Korea, Nepal, Nigeria, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Yemen, and elsewhere, according to the organization. The practice limits educational and economic opportunities. The conference aims to bring together social activists from around the world to share strategies for ending untouchability. DETAILS: www.humanism.org.uk/june2009
* CORRECTION: In the online version of the March Community News item “FUTURES STUDIES ON PERSIAN BBC,” we incorrectly identified the on-camera interviewer as futurist Vahid V. Motlagh. In fact, Motlagh’s interview with BBC Persian Television was conducted by telephone, and he did not appear on camera. We apologize for the misunderstanding.
“The diverse youth audience of the program,” Motlagh explains, “were interested to know what is the impact of futures studies in our personal life. The mere focus on times ahead of us will give us in itself ‘hope’ in spite of all disappointing facts that may surround us today, because through futures studies we find out that there will be a lot of alternative potentials on the horizon, which in turn help us become more patient.” For more information, visit Motlagh’s Web site. www.vahidthinktank.com.
In This Issue:
* Economic Rebound Forecast for 2010
* Long-Term Benefits of Recession-Proofing Strategies
* Alaska Youth Success Stories
* Antarctica’s Accelerated Warming
* Click of the Month: TeacherTube
* News for the Futurist Communi
The members of the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) see a sharp decline in economic activity throughout the first quarter of this year with continued contraction in the United States through second quarter and a virtually flat third and fourth quarter. The result will be a net decline of 0.9% in GDP for 2009, according to the February Outlook survey.
"The good news is that economic activity is expected to turn up in the second half of the year and 2010 is expected to see modestly above-trend growth of 3.1%” according NABE President Chris Varvares, president of group Macroeconomic Advisers and a member of the NABE. The NABE Outlook survey presents the consensus of macroeconomic forecasts from a panel of 47 professional economic forecasters.
Among the key forecasts of the February 2009 survey:
• The current downturn will most resemble that of 1973-75.
• Real government spending will advance 2.8% in 2009.
• The consumer price index will decline 0.8% in 2009, as already large commodity price declines pass through to consumer prices.
• The jobless rate will peak at 9.0% by the end of the year. House prices will decline 5% during 2009, though the S&P 500 index is expected to rise a solid 8% by December 31, 2009.
SOURCE: National
Association for Business Economics
With more businesses and individual workers seeking ways to “recession-proof” themselves, could the economy emerge from hard times stronger and more innovative than ever?
Recession-proofing workers might focus on becoming more fearless and innovative. Take your ideas to the boss rather than allow uncertainties to back you into your cubicle, urges Robin Fisher Roffer, author of THE FEARLESS FISH OUT OF WATER (Wiley, 2009). “It may seem scary to make such a bold move in tenuous times,” she says, “but leaders will appreciate any innovation that will get business moving right now.”
Businesses, too, are encouraged to be fearlessly proactive rather than cautious and reactive. Hard times are the time for action, suggests consultant Suzanne Caplan, because inaction “spawns a pattern of victimization, and pins us down into a habit of only reacting to the bad, instead of planning for the better.”
SOURCES: Robin Fisher Roffer, author of FEARLESS FISH OUT OF WATER
Suzanne Caplan, founder and chief blogger, www.womenetcetera.com
Why do some teenagers make successful transitions into young adulthood (avoiding substance abuse, suicide, and other problems), while others do not? A research project following the lives of Inuit youths in Alaska will help answer this vital question.
Spearheaded by health educator Lisa Wexler of the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, the research will survey 120 young-adult Inuit who have avoided these problems and successfully created balance in their lives between modern and traditional cultures.
By focusing on the young people’s resilience, and not just on risk factors, the study aims to identify and nurture strengths among youth of all different cultures.
SOURCE: University of Massachusetts, Amherst
University
of Massachusetts, Amherst
Long thought to be cooling while the rest of the globe warms, Antarctica may be warming at comparable rates, according to new research by Eric Steig, a University of Washington professor of earth and space sciences.
The vast East Antarctica has indeed been cooling, but new satellite data shows that West Antarctica, with its large ice sheet, has been warming over the past 50 years to levels that offset the east’s cooling.
Steig notes that the continent is extremely complex and that rates of cooling and warming vary everywhere, but “the evidence shows the continent as a whole is getting warmer.” One of the side effects of repairing the hole in the ozone layer over the Antarctica is that all of Antarctica could begin warming at the same rate as the rest of the world.
SOURCE:
University of Washington
Helpful and inspiring multimedia resources for K-12 teachers are just a click away. TeacherTube offers samples of student projects as well as master-instructor tutorials on any subject in the curriculum.
One noteworthy channel focusing on classroom inspiration is The Futures Channel, featuring well-known teachers like Jaime Escalante and Kay Toliver. Searching videos with key words like “futures” and “scenarios” yields such interesting resources as interviews with global educators on “what will school look like in 15-20 years time” and a series exploring the future of various careers.
Membership is free and open to anyone over age 18 but geared toward teachers. Members may upload their own videos, participate in discussion forums, create playlists, and get tips on integrating multimedia into classroom projects.
OUTLOOK 2009
More sex, fewer antidepressants. More religious influence in China, less religious influence in the Middle East and the United States. More truth and transparency online, but a totally recorded real life.
These are just a few of the forecasts in the latest edition of the World Future Society’s annual Outlook report. Order your own copy, or buy several to distribute to your colleagues, clients, students, and friends!
ORDER PDF or print copies:
READ the Top 10 Forecasts:
WATCH video preview:
NEWS FOR THE FUTURIST COMMUNITY
* WORLD FUTURE REVIEW’S FIRST ISSUE! Pardon our bias, but the biggest news for the futurist community right now is the publication of the first issue of WORLD FUTURE REVIEW, the Society’s professional “Journal of Strategic Foresight.” This exciting first issue features an interview with 2009 conference keynote speaker Don Tapscott and a review of his latest book, GROWN UP DIGITAL.
As the successor of two of the Society’s esteemed journals, FUTURES RESEARCH QUARTERLY and FUTURE SURVEY, WFR offers an array of original and insightful papers. In the first issue are “Towards a Future of Global Science” by Elisabet Sahtouris, “Ensuring Strategic Direction” by Robert E. Neilson, “Ethnography in Robotics” by Gerardo del Cerro Santamaria, and “The Future Evolution of the Ecology of Mind” by Tom Lombardo. In addition, WFR has enlisted a stable of excellent futurist writers to provide abstracts of the latest significant future-oriented writing, covering books, articles, blogs, and other original sources.
WFR is included in Professional Membership of the World Future Society, but for a limited time only, nonmembers may order this first edition for just $25. ORDER or LEARN MORE.
SUBMISSIONS to WFR should be addressed to Tim Mack, mailto:tmack@wfs.org
* FUTURES STUDIES ON PERSIAN BBC: Futurist Vahid V. Motlagh was recently interviewed on BBC Persian Television, offering Persian speakers in Iran and its neighbors a concise overview of the principles and goals of futures studies. His message was that studying the future helps inspire us to look to tomorrow with more hope and creativity. http://www.vahidthinktank.com/
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!! WHAT’S HOT @WFS.ORG !!
* If the economic downturn has you down, read what FINANCIAL TIMES columnist Martin Wolf has to say on what we need to do to turn things around. Read THE FUTURIST’s exclusive interview with Wolf “Repairing the World Financial System,”
* Learning the principles of foresight and the skills of futuring will help you keep a steady hand on the forces altering our world. Sign up for a free 10-part e-mail course, “Fundamentals of Foresight,” from WFS president Tim Mack. ENROLL now:
* Deadline for high-school-student essay contest submissions is March 31! What are the challenges you see before you as you look beyond high school? How do you expect to meet those challenges as you think about college and the future workplace? The World Future Society is seeking essays on how you are using futuring skills to take charge of your future. First-prize winner will receive a three-year membership in the World Future Society and free admission to WorldFuture 2009, the Society’s annual meeting, to be held in Chicago July 17-19. DETAILS:
In This Issue:
* Half of Planet May Face Food Crisis
* Yardstick for Measuring Health
* Darwin and Lincoln Bicentennials
* Click of the Month: International Year of Astronomy 2009
* News for the Futurist Community
Humanity must adapt to climate change now or face food crises that will affect half the world’s population by 2100, warns a team of scientists led by David Battisti of the University of Washington, Seattle.
Rapid warming alters crop yields in both the tropics and subtropics, with the most-severe potential food shortages hitting the equatorial belt, home to the world’s fastest-growing and poorest populations. Water supplies are also affected by the climate, further imperiling food security, according to Battisti.
Studying historic food disruptions and temperature change, the researchers found that humanity has been able to adapt to conditions. In the future, however, food systems will need to be rethought completely, the researchers argue. For instance, wheat currently makes up one-fourth of the calories consumed in India, but wheat yields there have been stagnant for a decade.
“We have to be rethinking agriculture systems as a whole, not only thinking about new varieties but also recognizing that many people will just move out of agriculture, and even move from the lands where they live now,” says team member Rosamond Naylor, director of Stanford University’s Program on Food Security and the Environment.
SOURCE: University of Washington, Seattle
http://uwnews.org/article.asp?articleID=46272
Twenty specific indicators of public health should be tracked by U.S. policy makers, recommends a new report by the Institute of Medicine of the National Academies. Tracking changes in these indicators over time will help determine the effectiveness of policies to promote Americans’ health and well-being.
The indicators include measures of health outcomes (life expectancy, infant mortality, injury-related mortality, psychological distress), measures of behavior (obesity, exercise routines, alcoholic consumption, condom use), and measures of institutional service provision (health insurance coverage, hospitalization rates, percentage of adults who are up-to-date in preventive screenings and immunizations).
The indicators are intended to give a broad picture of Americans’ overall health, which involves socioeconomic factors, such as income, race, ethnicity, and education, as well as environmental factors, such as pollution.
"This report takes an important step of capturing the health of the American people with a few key indicators," says committee chair George J. Isham, medical director and chief health officer of HealthPartners Inc. in Bloomington, Minnesota. "Given the gap between the relatively low performance and high costs of our health care system, data that is readily accessible on the Internet will be of great value in devising strategies to close this gap.”
SOURCE: Institute of Medicine, National Academies
http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12534
February 12, 2009, marks the 200th anniversaries of the births of two of history’s leading thinkers: Charles Darwin and Abraham Lincoln.
Among the organizations commemorating the Darwin bicentennial are:
* The Boston-based Darwin Bicentennial Project, which includes information on the MIT Darwin Symposium. “Though Darwin never corresponded with Lincoln, he and his family were abolitionists,” the Web site notes. “His grandfather, Josiah Wedgewood, was a leader of the abolitionist movement in Great Britain. Darwin followed the course of the US Civil War and expressed his hope for a Union victory in his correspondence with Harvard's Asa Gray.”
http://darwinbicentennial.org/
* Darwin Day is “a global celebration of science and reason.” The site features a countdown to February 12 and serves as a portal to a variety of commemorative events planned. http://www.darwinday.org/
* Darwin Project’s mission “is to speed the shift in our homes,
schools, and the media from only teaching destructive ‘first-half’ Darwinism to the inspiring liberation of Darwin's long lost completing half—along with all the fields of modern science that support and expand Darwin's original full vision to reveal caring, love, moral evolution, and education as the prime drivers for human evolution.” (Project founder David Loye’s page) http://www.thedarwinproject.com/loye/loye.html
http://www.thedarwinproject.com/home.html
And rallying the celebrations for Lincoln are:
* Lincoln Bicentennial, featuring background on Lincoln’s life and legacy, projects and contests for kids, a calendar of events, and more. http://www.lincolnbicentennial.gov
* Ford’s Theatre, which has undergone extensive restorations in time for reopening in February, with activities planned for the bicentennial, including Lincoln and Civil War related theatrical productions on the historic Ford’s stage.http://www.fordstheatre.org/home/performances-events/bicentennial-events
Are you looking forward to the solar eclipse on January 29? Anxious to find out what “dark matter” really is and how it affects the destiny of the universe and all its contents?
Check out the resources, networking opportunities, and news about research and activities in astronomy on this site devoted to the International Year of Astronomy 2009, an initiative of the International Astronomical Union and UNESCO.
The site includes a comprehensive astronomical calendar of events, both celestial and earthbound, future and historical (Galileo turns 445 on February 15), so you won’t miss any of the excitement.
You can also join your fellow astronomy lovers in a discussion forum on all the great events and research breakthroughs, and even get advice on telescopes and binoculars for amateurs.
More sex, fewer antidepressants. More religious influence in China, less religious influence in the Middle East and the United States. More truth and transparency online, but a totally recorded real life.
These are just a few of the forecasts in the latest edition of the World Future Society’s annual Outlook report. Order your own copy, or buy several to distribute to your colleagues, clients, students, and friends!
ORDER PDF or print copies:
http://www.wfs.org/specialreports.htm
* WORKPLACE EXPERT AND WORLDFUTURE 2009 speaker John Challenger was interviewed on CNN.com to discuss rising unemployment. He advised people who had recently lost their jobs " It's so important to get a fast start. Be ready to learn something new, get into an entirely new industry to work part time in a job that may turn into a full time job."
* EUROPE CHAPTER FOR WFS: Plans are under way for the launch of a Europe Chapter of the World Future Society. The Chapter is scheduled to be launched at a special lunch at Restaurant Terminus Nord, Rue de Dunkerque, Paris, France, on Wednesday, February 18, 2009, at noon. All WFS members are cordially invited to attend. Please RSVP in order to allow us to inform the restaurant of numbers ahead of time. DETAILS and RSVP: or contact Stephen Aguilar-Millan at mailto:stephena@eufo.org
http://www.eufo.org/index_files/paris2009.htm
* SCENARIOS 2.0: Social Technologies recently unveiled its new scenario planning technique at a meeting at the Houston Technology Center in Houston, Texas. Led by futurists Andy Hines and Terry Grim, the event showcased Social Technologies’ new approach to scenario planning, using the future of work as a sample topic to demonstrate the process. DETAILS: Social Technologies
http://www.socialtechnologies.com/FileView.aspx?fileName=Scenarios 2.0.pdf
* FIGHTING HEALTH DISPARITIES: The Disparity Reducing Advances Project (the DRA Project) is a multi-year, multi-stakeholder project developed by the Institute for Alternative Futures (IAF) to identify the most promising advances for bringing health gains to the poor and underserved and accelerating the development and deployment of these advances to reduce disparities. http://www.altfutures.com/draproject/
* STATE OF THE STATES REPORT: KEY TRENDS FOR 2009 The Pew Center on the States has released its forecasts for the key trends affecting state governments in the United States for the year ahead. As policy makers hone in on budget issues in a time of economic turmoil, State of the States directs attention to education, corrections and the criminal-justice system, Medicaid, energy, same-sex marriage, immigration, infrastructure, homelessness, and other social safety-net needs. http://www.stateline.org/live/publications/print-request
Decarbonizing Energy...Workplace Trend Watcher’s Advice...Oceanic “Lab on a Chip”...Cracking Down on Scientific Fraud...Click of the Month: eHow...Editor's Query: Wild Cards.
Solar, wind, and biomass energy technologies that are available now could cut carbon emissions by one-third by 2030, as well as generate thousands of new jobs, according to "Low-Carbon Energy: A Roadmap," a new report from the Worldwatch Institute.
These power sources will need to be integrated with digital smart grids that can flexibly meet changes in supply and demand. In addition, economical energy storage capacity must be developed, says the report. These measures will help retire hundreds of coal-fired plants, which provide 40% of the world's energy.
"We no longer need to say 'in the future' when talking about a low-carbon energy system," says Worldwatch President Christopher Flavin, author of the report. "These technologies—unlike carbon-capture facilities—are being deployed now and are poised to make the most carbon-intensive fossil fuels obsolete."
DETAILS: Worldwatch Institute
Companies’ planned job cuts in the United States rose steadily throughout 2008, and heavy downsizing is expected to continue through the first half of 2009, according to Chicago-based outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas. But CEO John Challenger advises job seekers not to take a holiday from their search.
“It is important for job seekers to understand that even amid the slowdown there is the need for organizations to continue hiring to build bench strength, as well as replace employees who leave or retire,” Challenger observes. “Companies must also continue to recruit knowing that any future economic expansion will likely bring the return of labor shortages.”
The firm conducts a free hotline service each year and will suspend its normal business operations on December 29 and 30 to take phone calls from anyone needing job-search advice. The two-day national job search call-in will run from 9:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. Central Standard Time both days. The telephone number is 312-332-5790.
SOURCE: Challenger, Gray & Christmas
A sturdy array of miniaturized sensors promises to help marine scientists track nutrients and pollutants in oceans, as well as temperature and other important chemical and biochemical characteristics.
Having passed its tests at depths of 1,600 meters (5,250 feet), the marine "lab on a chip" will be developed further for commercialization, according to project directors at the University of Southampton.
The scientists also aim to develop small chips that could identify individual phytoplankton in the oceans. Among the future applications of the chips will be environmental impact analysis and monitoring ship ballast water.
Sign up now for the World Future Society's next annual meeting, WorldFuture 2009. The theme, Innovation and Creativity in a Complex World, promises one of the most inspiring programs yet! Join us in Chicago at the beautiful Hilton Chicago hotel, July 17-19, 2009.
In addition to an exciting conference program with leading futurist thinkers, the meeting will also offer you the opportunity to invest in your own skills through preconference courses, expand your horizons with a special tour of the Advanced Photon Source at the Argonne National Laboratory, and help build innovative and effective learning systems for the future at the Education Summit.
SAVE $200! REGISTER BY DECEMBER 31:
LEARN MORE:
SUBMIT A CONFERENCE VOLUME ESSAY (Deadline, March 2, 2009. Early
submissions urged!):
Fabricating, manipulating, and stealing data are among the abuses found among some scientists. Though there is little hard evidence on the extent of the problem, the impacts of misconduct in science can be deadly, as in the case of falsified clinical results in drug trials.
While the United States has given statutory powers to various agencies to investigate fraud allegations, no European country has yet done so. Now, the European Science Foundation has organized a new Research Integrity Forum, in collaboration with the Spanish National Research Council, to help integrate national codes of ethics.
Differences of national opinion on what constitutes unethical behavior and how it should be dealt with becomes a big problem when so much more scientific collaboration crosses national borders, the group notes.
Suppose you had some really great striped socks that now have holes in the toes. With an economic climate dictating frugality, you’ll need to save your cute socks by learning how to repair them yourself. (Do they still even make “darning eggs”?)
Thanks to eHow’s article on “How to Darn a Sock,” you’ll learn that you can simply use a light bulb or a small hard ball in the toe of your sock while weaving matching-colored yarn or embroidery floss over the hole.
Billing itself as the "How To Do Just About Everything" site, eHow offers articles and videos in categories ranging from advertising ("How to Advertise or Market with Bluetooth for Free") to sex and conception ("How to Choose the Sex of Your Baby").
And for those interested in contributing their expertise to the eHow knowledge base, there are also articles on how to write for eHow. A quick scan of the site uncovered few if any articles on forecasting or scenario development, so futurists, start your engines!
OUTLOOK 2009
More sex, fewer antidepressants. More religious influence in China, less religious influence in the Middle East and the United States. More truth and transparency online, but a totally recorded real life.
These are just a few of the forecasts in the latest edition of the World Future Society’s annual Outlook report. Order your own copy, or buy several to distribute to your colleagues, clients, students, and friends!
Asteroid collisions or robot invasions may never happen, but if they do, the impacts could be significant.
What one Wild Card do you think futurists need to pay attention to right now? Send us a brief essay (maximum of 500 words) telling us what we should be looking out for, how it might come about, what the impacts could be, and what we should do about it. (And remember, not all Wild Cards are bad.)
E-MAIL your Wild Card essay to mailto:cwagner@wfs.org