The Dictionary of Foresight Project attempts to authoritatively define and explain terms used in exploring the future.
It begins with the glossary from Futuring: The Exploration of the Future. An international Board of Editors is currently being assemble from the Professional Membership of the World Future Society.
Your comments about terms and suggestions for additional terms are welcome.
Malthusian. Referring to the gloomy views of Thomas R. Malthus, an English clergyman and economist (1766-1834). Malthus expounded the theory that world population tends to increase faster than food supply and therefore must be controlled by famine, disease, or war. Modern-day Malthusians, sometimes styled Neo-Malthusians, advocate measures to restrict population growth to avoid the unpleasant results that may otherwise ensue.
future (noun). This term may refer to any of the following:
1. The period of time following the present moment and continuing on indefinitely. "The polar ice caps may shrink in the future."
2. The situation or condition of someone or something in the future. "The future of biotechnology looks bright."
3. One of a plurality of possible future conditions or situations. These are sometimes described as alternative futures or just futures. For instance, three futures may be envisioned for the giant pandas: extinction, revival in the natural environment, or domestication and continued existence in zoos and private preserves.
heuristic. Serving to stimulate research or discovery. A number of methods may be used because of their heuristic value; that is, their ability to encourage people to learn a variety of new things. For example, students may be asked to design a model community; in the process, they are led to acquire wider knowledge about how communities operate, what values are important to different people, etc.
holistic. Emphasizing the entirety of something. (Holon is Greek for "whole.") In dealing with complex systems, such as a human being or a city, researchers will often look at individual elements rather than the system as a whole, but it often is essential to consider the system as a whole.
ideation. The process of forming ideas and relating them to other things, including other ideas. Ideas can emerge from brainstorming and other heuristic techniques. See also heuristic.
image. A mental picture or concept of a person, object, institution, or other thing. A politician, for example, may try to create in the minds of voters desirable or undesirable images of future events—e.g., a future rise or decline in taxes—as a means of attracting political support.
indicator. A statistic or measurement used to gauge the condition of something. Economic indicators include figures for the GNP, freight loadings, stock prices, etc. Social indicators include crime rates, divorces, high-school graduations, etc.
indicator, leading. A variable whose change generally precedes some other event or situation, or an event with a similar characteristic. For example, an increase in economic activity is typically preceded by a rise in the prices of stocks; thus, stock prices are a leading indicator of economic activity. There also are lagging indicators, such as the increase of jobs during the later stages of an economic recovery.
indicator, social. A statistical variable relating to the state of society. The crime rate, the level of literacy, and the incidence of alcoholism are social indicators. Social indicators give policy makers a measure of the quality of life in a city or area. Social indicators allow us to grade or rank such things as cities or universities according to the quality of life they offer.
lead time. The time required for a development to move from conception to completion. In some cases, lead times are very long: Building a new electric power plant, for example, may take ten years or more because of the time consumed by planning, legal obstacles, construction, etc.
linear. Following a straight line or having a single dimension. A linear relationship is one that is straightforward and direct, in contrast to a nonlinear relationship, which is complex and may involve feedback. A linear thinker might hold that a 20 percent increase in a tax rate would result in a 20 percent increase in tax collections, but such an increase is unlikely because taxpayers would be motivated by higher taxes to do more things to avoid being taxed at all, such as moving to a jurisdiction where the taxes are lighter.
model. Something made to resemble something else, such as a miniature automobile or person (doll). A model has some features of the thing it represents but lacks others. As a result, it can be smaller, cheaper, more convenient, or otherwise more suitable for a certain purpose than the "real" object. In addition to physical models, there now are mathematical or computer models of complex phenomena, such as a business, a city, or a national economy. These computer models can be used to simulate actual or potential developments in the real world, and such simulations can guide policy makers in deciding on actions to take.
model, mathematical. A series of equations for describing a real-world system, such as an economy. The equations can be entered into a computer and a variety of simulations made, using various assumptions. This enables policy makers to ask "what if" questions: For instance, if tax revenues rise by $30 billion, how would that affect the government’s budget?
modeling. Representing significant aspects of something so that they can be evaluated in some fashion. A model may be either physical or symbolic, such as a computer program.
modeling, global. The use of computer programs containing sets of mathematical equations and other (logical) algorithms that describe problems of global scope.
monitoring. Continuous (or ongoing) observation of certain aspects of something. Nurses monitor the vital signs of patients. Arborists monitor the condition of trees. In futuring, monitoring typically focuses on selected features of the environment in which one operates, such as economic and governmental indicators.
morphological analysis. Morphology refers to the study of the structure or form of something. By breaking down something into its components or aspects, we can systematically think about each one in turn. Without a morphological analysis, we may easily overlook certain factors when we try to solve a problem or understand what is happening in a particular situation.
nonlinear. See linear.
planning. The preparation of plans, that is, a set of tentative decisions about what we will do in the future. A plan may include the identification of goals that one wants to reach, as well as reasonable strategies about how to achieve the goals. Planning, unlike futuring, is sharply focused on making immediate decisions about what one should do. In contrast, futuring focuses on developing a better understanding of possible goals and strategies as a preliminary to making decisions and plans.
planning. The preparation of plans, that is, a set of tentative decisions about what we will do in the future. A plan may include the identification of goals that one wants to reach, as well as reasonable strategies about how to achieve the goals. Planning, unlike futuring, is sharply focused on making immediate decisions about what one should do. In contrast, futuring focuses on developing a better understanding of possible goals and strategies as a preliminary to making decisions and plans.
precursor (adjective). Referring to some group, jurisdiction, or thing that normally changes in advance of the others. For example, Scandinavian nations often adopt social policies in advance of other nations.
precursor (noun). Something that commonly happens in advance of something else and therefore can be used to anticipate the later event. See also bellwether.
prediction. A statement that something will happen in the future. The term prediction connotes a greater degree of precision and certainty than does forecasting. Today’s future-oriented scholars generally avoid making predictions and deal more in terms of forecasts or conjectures.
proactive. Oriented toward dealing with possible problems before they become crises or with opportunities before they are seized by competitors. After proactive managers identify a significant challenge or opportunity, they prepare for it. Reactive managers ignore emerging problems and opportunities until they become obvious, when the time for dealing with them effectively may have passed.
prognostics. The field that deals with forecasts or study of future possibilities. From prognosis, meaning "foreknowledge" in Greek. In his book Prognostics (Elsevier, 1971), the Dutch scholar Fred L. Polak writes: "In the broad sense prognostics covers all the variants and methods of scientific future thinking."
progressionism. The doctrine that the human race or society is making continuous progress. Progressionism developed in Europe in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries, along with the idea of progress, and reached its zenith in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. However, progressionist views were discredited by intensifying world wars, economic depressions, the Holocaust, new weapons of mass destruction, and other negative factors.
projection. A forecast developed by assuming that a trend will continue into the future. For example, if the population of a city has recently been increasing 2 percent a year and the number of inhabitants is now 1 million, we might assume that the population one year from now will be 1.02 million.
quality of life. The noneconomic aspects of a human life, such as the purity of the air, security from crime, effective cultural institutions, availability of leisure and recreation, and general feelings of satisfaction and well-being. By contrast, the term standard of living emphasizes the economic aspects, such as salary, size of home, retirement benefits, vacations, etc. See also indicators.
reductionism. The tendency to explain a complex phenomenon by analyzing and measuring its individual parts or aspects. Whatever cannot be measured satisfactorily may be ignored as unimportant or even considered nonexistent.
relevance tree. A diagrammatic technique for analyzing systems or processes in which distinct levels of complexity or hierarchy can be identified. A relevance tree for a new drug might start with Biomedical Objectives, under which would be listed Prevention, Diagnosis, Treatment, etc. Under Diagnosis, the tree might branch into Structure, Function, Composition, Behavior, etc. A relevance tree enables an analyst to identify the various aspects of a problem or a proposed solution and thus arrive at a more complete understanding of something. This technique is also useful for identifying unintended side effects of innovations.
risk assessment. The identification and characterization of the quality and quantity of potential adverse effects of an event, such as an investment decision, a new technology, or a natural phenomenon.
scanning. The initial and continuing process of reviewing and analyzing current literature, Web sites, and other media to identify and describe noteworthy trends and their possible development and future impacts.
scenario. A description of a sequence of events that might possibly occur in the future. A scenario is normally developed by: (1) studying the facts of a situation, (2) selecting something that might happen, and (3) imagining the various ways for that development to occur and the sequence of events that might follow. For example, a person charged with protecting a city might first seek to identify the various threats that might occur and what responses the city’s agencies might make; he could then get ideas about specific challenges to the city’s current security system. In this way, the scenario writer can try to identify potential weaknesses in a city’s security system and suggest ways to improve them.
simulation. The use of models, including computer and physical models, and/or role-playing exercises to test the effects of various developments or events on the system being studied. See also model, gaming.
singularity. A postulated time in the future when technological progress and other aspects of human evolutionary development becomes so rapid that nothing beyond that point can be reliably conceived.
social experiment. A small-scale test of a social policy or system. Carefully monitored social experiments can help policy makers find more effective ways to deal with social problems.
stage. A distinguishable condition in the development of something as time passes. In human development, a fertilized egg develops into an embryo, then a fetus, then an infant, then a toddler, etc. A new product may move from conceptualizing to prototyping, to market testing, to full-scale production, etc.
synergy. The combined action of a number of parts so that the result is greater than would be produced by the parts operating in-dependently. In brainstorming, people freely express their ideas, thereby stimulating other members of the group to get ideas. The result: A larger number of original ideas may be produced than if everyone worked on the problem independently.
systems theory. A theory that seeks to explain the behavior of systems, which are aggregates of interacting units. One important aspect of a system is the existence of feedback; that is, when one part of a system is acted upon, the results of that action, propagated through other parts, cause the original one to be affected, as when a drop in a stock's price frightens investors, thereby causing a further decrease in its value.
thought experiment. The test of a concept through the use of imagination and logic. Typically, the thinker posits a certain state or situation as being true, and then asks the question, If that is true, what might result?
threshold. The point at which a change produces some new effect. Certain types of change proceed without noticeable effect, but at a certain point a notable reaction occurs. Example: When water reaches 100º C, it begins to boil.
time frame. The period of time that one is assuming for the purposes of decision making and planning. For instance, a planner might think normally in three-month segments.
time horizon. The farthest distance into the future that one considers in forecasting and planning. A company may be viewed as having a "short time horizon" if it rarely gives serious consideration to events that are forecasted to occur more than two years into the future.
utopia. An ideal society or a description of such a society. A utopia normally exemplifies desirable things that might happen in the future. The things judged desirable may reflect the period of history in which the utopia is conceived, as well as the author’s own preferences. See also dystopia.
visioning. The process of creating a series of images or visions of the future that are real and compelling enough to motivate and guide people toward focusing their efforts on achieving certain goals.
wild card. An unexpected event that would have enormous consequences if it actually occurred. The term often refers to a future event that is unlikely during the period of time being considered but would have great consequences if it did.