The World in 2050: Four Forces Shaping Civilization’s Northern Future by Laurence C. Smith. Dutton. 2010. 322 pages. $26.95.
Brazil, China, or Iceland—which country’s population will grow the fastest between now and 2050?
The answer is Iceland, according to Laurence C. Smith in The World in 2050. The UCLA geologist envisions a “New North”—comprising Canada, the United States, Russia, Sweden, Finland, Norway, Iceland, Denmark, and Greenland—of intense activity, expansion, and economic growth. The populations of Canada, Iceland, and Norway will all grow by 20% or more.
Smith identifies four forces of change behind this great shift—demography, increasing strain on the earth’s resources, globalization, and climate change—and the specific ways that each force may shape human civilization in the next four decades.
“Big changes often just sort of ease their way in,” he says. “And quietly change the world.”
• Demography. In 2008, for the first time in history, more humans were living in cities than in rural areas. Urbanization will continue and will necessitate expert growth management.
Industrialized countries will also need to worry about their rapidly growing elderly populations. By 2050, the nursing homes of Brazil, Russia, India, and China may be full to the brim, and none of the four countries may have enough employees to staff them.
The highest fertility rates will be in developing nations. But before their young people can take up needed jobs in industrialized nations, their societies will need to boost education, security, and governance so that they will have opportunities to gain education and job training.
• Growing strain on the earth’s resources. The world is projected to consume 106 million barrels of oil a day by 2030. Pressure will mount to tap any existing reserves. Russia in particular will aggressively develop its vast oil fields and compete with its neighbors to drill the pristine ice fields of the Arctic Circle.
The world’s population will grow 50% by 2050, and all that growth will require enormous increases in crop production to feed it. Worldwide freshwater sources are already running low due to pollution and massive irrigation.
• Globalization. Canada, Russia, the United States, and other northern nations all depend heavily on migrant workers to fill needed labor jobs. These countries’ need for migrants will rise considerably to sustain growing industries despite population aging. All nations will have to ease their immigration restrictions and discourage any surges of xenophobia, according to Smith.
The now-sparsely settled Arctic will see major influxes of settlers. Smith expects that it could host growing urban centers and larger aboriginal communities.
• Climate change. Shifts in the earth’s climate are bound to unfold erratically over time, though the long-term result will be significantly higher temperatures. The Arctic could be seasonally ice-free by 2050, and human infrastructures throughout the far north will be severely challenged.
Some amount of warming is inevitable no matter what actions the world takes now, but decisive reductions in carbon emissions during this century could keep the warming to a moderate 2.5°C increase instead of a rise of 5°C or higher.
Smith writes that he took great care to make his forecasts realistic and based on trends already under way. That meant steering clear of discussing wild-card shocks, apocalyptic doomsday scenarios, or other radical changes in the status quo.
“The described outcomes favor the likely over the unlikely. I honestly expect, should I live long enough, that I will see them within my lifetime,” Smith writes.
The World in 2050 is a plausible vision of what the world may look like four decades from today. Smith convincingly states not only what he expects to see, but also why he expects to see it.
Rick Docksai is a staff editor of THE FUTURIST and World Future Review.