In This Issue:
IT Jobs Drive U.S. Economic Engine
Fashion Faces Forward
Tech Prowess May Not Shorten Wars
State Prison Population Declines
Click of the Month: Mendeley Research Networks
News for the Futurist Community
What's hot @ WFS
Growth in information technology has contributed to an expansion of U.S. GDP of more than $52 billion in the past decade, and high-skill, high-wage IT jobs will continue to grow in the decade ahead, according to the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation.
Lower-end IT jobs such as computer programming will continue to flow out of the United States and into lower-wage regions, but the opportunities for high-end careers such as network design and administration will increase rapidly.
"The advent and expansion of new IT systems such as health IT and smart grids, the continued expansion of broadband, and the growth of e-commerce and e-government, show the importance of IT jobs to the U.S. economy going forward," states an ITIF report.
Look for job growth in network and database administration, systems analysis, software engineering, support specialists, and computer science.
SOURCE: Information Technology and Innovation Foundation
A global industry generating $1.3 trillion in annual revenue, fashion faces the same issues affecting most other industries, including aging populations, shifting values, and accelerating technological change.
A new report by Levi Strauss and the Forum for the Future outlines four scenarios for a sustainable fashion industry by 2025:
1. Slow Is Beautiful: In a risk-averse marketplace, consumers demand durable, organic fabrics, and transparency on garments' socioeconomic and ecological footprints.
2. Community Couture: Fabrics may be new and expensive or "pre-loved" and cheap. Clothes are made at home or in community-run recycling centers. Clothing "libraries" rent garments for special occasions.
3. Techno Chic: A healthy, wealthy, high-tech world esteems smart textiles that facilitate low-ecological-impact lifestyles, such as nanotech coatings that reduce need for washing.
4. Patchwork Planet: Nationalism or regionalism dominates consumer choices, which gravitate toward personalization. Shorter supply chains mean clothing reaches customers faster, and resource shortages drive technological innovation.
SOURCE: "Fashion Futures," Forum for the Future
Learn how to discover and build the future along with a thousand futurists from around the world at the World Future Society’s 2010 conference in Boston, to be held July 8-10 at the Westin Boston Waterfront Hotel.
The outstanding program will feature a rich diversity of speakers from around the world and in a wide array of fields--such as noted business futurist Arnold Brown, Harvard theologian Harvey Cox, and South Korean mayor Park Bo-saeng of Gimcheon City.
You’ll also have the opportunity to hone your own futuring skills in preconference courses ranging from an introduction to the field to advanced strategies in foresight, planning, and futures building.
If you want to win a war quickly, having the best attack technology may not necessarily help. Overconfidence in offensive technologies may cause an attacking country to ignore such limiting factors as terrain, climate, and training of personnel, notes political scientist Marco Nilsson in his PhD thesis at the University of Gothenburg in Sweden.
"Due to these limitations, attack-oriented technology normally does not allow a state to run over an enemy as easily as expected. Unless the attacked country collapses right away, the duration of most wars is decided at the negotiation table," says Nilsson, who studied all wars in the state system from 1817 to 1992.
Overconfidence in military prowess also leads to higher likelihood of both arms races and wars. Nilsson concludes that, if decision makers had a more realistic understanding of technologies' limitations, they would be more inclined to negotiate first, avoiding the high costs of long, drawn-out conflicts.
SOURCE: University of Gothenburg
The number of inmates in America’s state prisons fell for the first time in nearly 40 years, according to a study by the Pew Center on the States. Though the decline was small (0.4% from the end of 2008 to the end of 2009), “after so many years on the rise, any size drop is notable,” says Adam Gelb, director of the study project.
Not all states experienced a decline, but those that achieved cuts in prison populations did so largely through policy changes designed to “get taxpayers a better return on their public safety dollars,” says Gelb. For instance, Texas created more residential and community-based treatment programs to divert nonviolent offenders out of prisons.
Meanwhile, the federal prison population continues to grow, rising by 3.4% in the same period to reach an all-time high of 208,118 inmates. Reasons: expanded federal jurisdiction over certain crimes and increased prosecution of immigration cases.
SOURCE: Prison Count 2010, Pew Center on the States
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* SEEING 20/20: Project Renaissance will host a conference May 13-19 in Pasadena, Maryland, focusing on creative problem solving and enhanced/accelerated learning. The theme is “Seeing 20/20: See With Your Own Eyes and Mind,” celebrating the extraordinary overlap between creativity and learning to create “superlearning,” which may be applied in many fields. To learn more or register, visit http://www.winwenger.com/df18.htm
* “LOOKING BACK ON LOOKING FORWARD”: A call for abstracts (deadline June 1) has been issued for contributions to a special edition of FUTURES focusing on evaluating futures research in order to improve methodologies. The editors seek cross-disciplinary research, including either qualitative case-studies or quantitative work, and research involving both the public and the private sectors. Contributions should clearly indicate theoretical and/or managerial implications. Abstracts with a maximum of 1,000 words may be sent to Patrick van der Duin at mailto:p.a.vanderduin@tudelft.nl or Martijn van der Steen at mailto:steen@nsob.nl
* THE BUSINESS OF SOCIAL MEDIA: Business futures consultants Weiner, Edrich, Brown, Inc., have launched a major initiative to harness the power of social networking to gain new perspectives and insights that may be of use to their clients. In addition to establishing a presence on Facebook ( http://www.WEBonFacebook.com ) and Twitter (@WEBFutureTrends ), WEB has launched a blog where readers may add comments and questions: http://www.WeinerEdrichBrown.com/blog/
* MEGACRUNCH: In their new book, FUTURIST contributing editor Joseph Pelton and former Royal Television Society chairman Peter Marshall warn that the twenty-first century is fraught with mega-challenges that threaten to converge into a “megacrunch.” These forces include climate change, systemic unemployment due to technological advances, the North-South gap, and a clash between traditional and modern cultures. Pelton and Marshall outline 10 reforms we can act on now to avoid megacrunch, including reducing population, developing renewable energy sources, reducing carbon footprints everywhere, embracing smart growth and smart transportation, and futuring--i.e., taking the long-range perspective in decision making at every level. ORDER: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/1450557023/thefuturistbooks
* PREDICTING ELECTRONIC NEWS: Listeners of National Public Radio’s “All Things Considered” got a taste of the future recently when Paleo-Future blogger Matt Novak cited an issue of THE FUTURIST that forecast the advent of handheld electronic “newspapers” that we see all around us now. Coincidentally, the July-August 2010 issue of THE FUTURIST will also feature a look-back at that prediction, with reflections from one of the world’s first interactive journalists, Mike Greenly.
* INSPIRING IDEAS: Check out the World Future Society’s latest video on YouTube, “Ideas to Inspire Action.” Great thinkers through the ages, ranging from Marcus Aurelius to Margaret Mead, have inspired us to look ahead, work together, think innovatively, and build the future now. WATCH:
* BETA SITE TESTING ACCELERATES: The World Future Society’s effort to enhance its Web site—and member benefits—enters a new phase of beta testing. Features for members will include complete digital access to FUTURIST content, as well as blogs, forums, and other exclusives. Members of the Society may now log on (username is your member ID number, and the initial password is your last name, or the member’s surname of record, case-specific). Nonmembers are also welcome to browse the site’s nonexclusive content, including interviews with leading technologists, public policy makers, inventors, and futurists; an interactive foresight dictionary; and more than 250 forecasts about the future from the pages of THE FUTURIST magazine. Go to http://beta.wfs.org
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FUTURIST UPDATE: News & Previews from the World Future Society is an e-mail newsletter published monthly as a supplement to THE FUTURIST magazine. Copyright © 2010, World Future Society, 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450, Bethesda, MD 20814, USA. Telephone 1-301-656-8274; e-mail mailto:info@wfs.org Web site http://www.wfs.org
Editor: Cindy Wagner, mailto:cwagner@wfs.org
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