What would life be like if globalization were to reach its full potential? What about if it fell short or suddenly reversed course?
In his new book, The Future of Truth and Freedom in the Global Village (Praeger, 2010), North Central College religious studies professor Thomas McFaul envisions three different paths that the future might take.
Scenario 1: Fragmentation and Fundamentalism
In the worst-case scenario, globalizing technology produces too much change too quickly, and the frightened masses retreat to the perceived safety, social stability, and unity of their own separate enclaves. People from different religious, ethnic, national, and tribal affiliations voluntarily segregate themselves from each other.
Their cultural traditions, religious worldviews, values, and boundaries bring them respite from encroaching foreign mind-sets. However, the respite is short-lived, due to growing hostility and intolerance between groups with different belief systems. Multiculturalist viewpoints take a backseat to xenophobia. Fundamentalist ideas gain prominence and lead to a rise in terrorist attacks. The first half of the twenty-first century would be characterized by less separation between church and state — and less religious freedom in many countries. If this were to happen, then the democratic growth trend would reverse itself, giving rise to new authoritarian regimes.
Economically, the opposite sides of the spectrum would pose the biggest problems, in McFaul’s view: Greater market deregulation would widen the gap between haves and have-nots and inflict serious structural damage on the middle class (“the foundation for social stability”). On the other hand, excessive regulation, taxation, and nationalization of industry would cause entire economies to stagnate.
All of the above would negatively affect the rate of technological progress.
Outcome for freedom and democracy: “By 2050, the two-centuries-old trend towards democracy also started backing up, as the number of authoritarian and semi-authoritarian regimes expanded around the planet.”
Scenario 2: Diversity and Harmony
Just because different cultures don’t interact doesn’t mean that they can’t all get along. In McFaul’s second scenario, social integration slows to a crawl at every level, from local to global. As different groups work to preserve their unique cultural identities, they nonetheless peacefully coexist, at least for the most part.
In this scenario, terrorism still poses a strong threat, despite a concerted global effort to eradicate it. Worldwide, democratization slowly grinds to a halt.
Centralized governments (such as China) prove as economically successful as decentralized democracies (such as India).
Under this set of circumstances, technological breakthroughs in fields from transportation to health care would continue to be made.
Outcome for freedom and democracy: By mid-century, democratization has stagnated, providing reassurance to those who feared secularization and the loss of their sacred beliefs — and frustration to those who did not.
Scenario 3: Global Cultural Integration
In the best of all possible worlds, terrorism has been almost completely eliminated — along with most worldview differences. A world “melting pot” culture has emerged, so-called universal values have been embraced, and democracy has spread to many countries, notably China.
Economically, nations everywhere have managed to achieve governments that provide “for the social well-being of all citizens without undermining the entrepreneurial motivations necessary to sustain a modern marketplace economy.” Advances in science and technology continue, and breakthroughs in the biosciences eradicate many diseases.
As for global finance, McFaul writes, “While there is no guarantee, the most probable and preferred economic trend of the future to the year 2050 will involve the spread of the regulated marketplace under the direction of democratically derived governments.”
Outcome for freedom and democracy: “Nations with diverse governments that ranged from multiparty to single-party systems found the balance they needed in order to achieve both political stability and economic growth. … The promises of the Modern world were slowly being realized throughout the global village — even if some communities were marching forward faster than others.”
So, what will the future bring? Of these scenarios, McFaul believes that the first — and most dystopian — scenario is the least likely, since it would necessitate a sudden and complete reversal of key long-term trends. The third — and most utopian — scenario is the most likely, given the long-term indicators.
— Aaron M. Cohen
Source: The Future of Truth and Freedom in the Global Village by Thomas R. McFaul. Praeger, www.abc-clio.com. 2010. 190 pages. $44.95.