When visions of the future collide

The Wall Street Journal (4/22/12) headlined the story “A Quixotic Quest to Mine Asteroids,” about a number of well known, respected individuals who have formed a company (Planetary Resources, Inc.) to search for natural resources in space, with the potential to mine asteroids.
Very exciting!

The article states that “Such mining could yield large amounts of water, oxygen and metals to help further space exploration by allowing people to fuel spacecraft, build space stations and other constructs. The resources could potentially be brought back to Earth as well.” WSJ goes on so point out that a NASA study suggests that such missions could be accomplished by “around 2025.
The venture appears to be based largely on known technologies developed and tested over many years, primarily by NASA, and appears to be a continuation of man’s desire to explore and develop space. The investors appear to be driven both by the desire to pioneer in space and to develop new (and hopefully profitable) sources of metals and minerals. The WSJ article suggests iron and nickel for example.
All a logical extension of the world’s efforts in space.
But…..
The May-June issue of The Futurist includes an article Tsvi Bisk, “Limiting Energy’s Growth” that suggests transformational change over the next decade which could see carbon nanotubes displacing many common metals. Bisk suggests that carbon nanotubes, because of their extreme strength and light weight could replace metals in many applications, and that the cost of producing carbon nanotube products is falling. Moreover, carbon nanotube material “conducts electricity like copper and disperses heat like steel or brass.”
Bisk goes on to state that ”It is a reasonable conjecture that by 2020 or earlier, an industrial process for the inexpensive production of carbon nanotubes will be developed…”
So, here we have two views of the future, both unfolding over the next ten to fifteen years. Are they mutually exclusive? Not necessarily. Regardless of the success, failures or problems with the asteroid mining adventure, the development of carbon nanotube materials will continue.
But how will the development of super light, super strong materials that conduct electricity affect the demand for metals and other resources here on earth? Or in space? Will carbon nanotube products substantially displace metals in manufacturing and design of new products? How will that affect asteroid mining?
What will be the impacts and implications? What do you think? Here’s an opportunity for you to use the “Comment” space below. Or, if you prefer, send me an email at verne@personalfutures.net

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