Our Alarming Culture of Pill People and Future Trends in Healthcare
How many pills do you take on a daily basis?
According to a 2010 study by Colorado State University, about 68% of American adults take multivitamin supplements. At the same time the average American fills 12 prescriptions a year.
After spending the past few days with my aging parents in an assisted living center in Arizona, daily meds and supplements have become a critical issue for them to deal with.
Yes, every person is different and their daily “pill cocktail” will vary, but the notion that virtually every problem has a “pill solution” is still very much alive and well in today’s culture.
On one end of the spectrum is my colleague and fellow futurist, Ray Kurzweil who takes upwards of 250 vitamins a day, and on the other end are those who don’t take any.
To be sure, future generations will refer to us as the “pill people” because of our addiction to the quick fix. But as with all cultural memes, they have a beginning, middle, and end. Sometime in the near future, pill taking will peak and other types of cures, therapies, and self-healing techniques will begin to replace our need for pills.
The average American today takes slightly over 10 pills a day. By 2050, that number may very well be zero. If that’s the case, what will be the next big thing destined to capture the money we spend today on pills? Here are a few thoughts.
Popping a pill may seem like an easy fix, but when is it too many?
Understanding Today’s Pill Culture
Projections show that Americans today spend over $270 billion on prescription drugs vs. slightly over $34 billion for non-prescription alternatives and vitamins.
Although senior citizens comprise 13% of the total population in the United States, they account for over 30% of the prescriptions, and over 40% of all the money spent on drug. According to a study by the Institute for Families USA, the average number of prescriptions per year/per senior citizen grew from 19.6 in 1992 to 28.5 in 2000. Projections show the average number of prescriptions per elderly person will grow to 41.5 in 2013.
Naturally, having too many prescriptions causes a myriad of problems.
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 14,800 Americans died from overdosing on opioids in 2008, the most recent year data is available—more than the number of deaths from heroin or cocaine.
Another recent headline cast an even darker shadow, “Prescription Drugs Kill 300 Percent More Americans Than Illegal Drugs.”
While there are still many issues with those who need medications and don’t have access to them, there are far more red flags being raised over excessive pill taking.
Multiple prescriptions tend to increase the risk of unwanted side effects and potentially dangerous drug interactions, especially among the elderly. There’s also a growing problem with “prescribing cascades,” where one prescription causes side effects and the doctor prescribes another medication to combat the side effects, which results in yet even more side effects, forcing another medication and on and on.
Adhering to a doctor’s regimen can become an issue as well. As with my mother, it gets complicated when someone takes a dozen prescriptions daily – some once a day, others twice a day, some with food, some without, some that can be taken together, others that can’t. It can be challenging to remember a routine like this one time, let alone stick to it day after day.
Even though we are living in a pill-oriented society, people don’t like taking them. On one hand, pills offer hope for a healthier or pain relieved body, yet recent studies indicate significant anxiety over side effects and drug interactions, plus many simply don’t really believe the drug was ever necessary.
Setting the Stage for What Comes Next
A new survey conducted by the Pew Research Center’s Internet & American Life Project shows that 69% of adults in the U.S. now track a series of health indicators both for themselves and/or a loved one.
- 60% of U.S. adults say they track their weight, diet, or exercise routine.
- 33% of U.S. adults track blood pressure, blood sugar, headaches, sleep patterns, or other health indicators.
- 12% of U.S. adults track health indicators or symptoms for a loved one.
That said, much of the tracking is done informally and simply committed to memory:
- 49% of trackers say they keep track of progress “in their heads.”
- 34% say they track the data on paper, like in a notebook or journal.
- 21% say they use some form of technology to track their health data, such as a spreadsheet, website, app, or device.
With this being the first national survey measuring health data tracking, which has been shown in clinical studies to be a tool for improving outcomes, particularly among people trying to lose weight or manage a chronic condition, the Pew survey went on to conclude:
- 46% of health trackers say that this activity has changed their overall approach to maintaining their health or the health of someone for whom they provide care.
- 40% of trackers say it has led them to ask a doctor new questions or to get a second opinion from another doctor.
- 34% of trackers say it has affected a decision about how to treat an illness or condition
Pills will soon be able to convey their effectiveness digitally.
Enter – The Internet of Things, Increased Awareness, and Super Precision
The Internet of Things will grow to an estimated 50 billion devices connected to the Internet by 2020, and many of these devices will be sensors that track our body functions.
Smart dust sensors, smaller than the tip of a pencil will soon be embedded in our clothes and shoes, giving us constant tracking information, and signal us whenever we reach a danger zone.
Along with having our bodies “radiating” health data, a number of tracking services will become available to make it simple for average people to live healthier lifestyles without waiting for that occasional emergency forcing a doctor visit to get back on track.
Here are a few likely outcomes we will see in the future:
- Health fitness gadgets will explode over the coming years.
- Pills will soon grow out of favor, switching from a positive to a negative in the minds of average people. In many circles, pills will deteriorate to the category of “bad” and “evil.”
- Increased sensors will enable us to gain an augmented reality view of what’s happening inside us.
- The “digitally aware” will be shown to have substantially better overall health than those who are not doing the self-tracking.
- Growing levels of personal health data will lead to many “pill alternatives.”
- Digestible cameras will become commonplace as people wish to gain perspective on their “inner health” as they watch the cameras pass through their digestive tracts.
- Companies will begin marketing themselves as having a “no-pill solution.”
- Pill taking will begin to decline.
How much money do you spend on perscription drugs?
We are currently spending a bloody fortune on pills.
While Big Pharma would love nothing better than for this to continue, a number of disrupting forces are now in play, and over the coming years, revenue streams will begin to redirect, creating huge opportunities for what comes next.
New government healthcare policies will force downward pressure on pricing and spending, while at the same time drive a number of known efficiencies currently sitting on the sidelines.
Since healthcare is such a confusing topic, with constant competing claims and contrarian viewpoints, changes will take far longer than most are predicting. As always, the early adopters will lead the way, but not all early adopters will be following the same trajectory.
With a rapidly aging population, opportunities will be huge for the next decade and beyond in this massive business battlefield.
About the author:
Thomas Frey is the innovation editor of THE FUTURIST magazine. This piece was originally posted on his Website, Futuristspeaker.com
Essays and comments posted in World Future Society and THE FUTURIST magazine blog portion of this site are the intellectual property of the authors, who retain full responsibility for and rights to their content. For permission to publish, distribute copies, use excerpts, etc., please contact the author. The opinions expressed are those of the author. The World Future Society takes no stand on what the future will or should be like.
KEEP UP WITH WFS NEWS & UPCOMING EVENTS
The 1st episode of The Futures Podcast is available! Join us as we talk about the origin and mission of The Futures School, and how this powerful program can help you and your organization to discover, seize and create the future.
In a recent article on LinkedIn, Ken Gosnell highlights 4 (actually 5) major characteristics of the futurist CEO, and talks about why these characteristics are critical in today's world. I'm proud to say that these 5 points are a huge part of our purpose and expertise at Kedge, and the very reason that we created The Futures School!
August 23, 2015 - I'm listening to cicadas outside my apartment window this morning. The steady high-pitched buzz saw singing that often is mistaken by those who are uninformed for the sound of electricity passing through wires. On my morning walks these past few weeks with Maya, my red miniature poodle, it has been hard not to notice cicadas.
August 22, 2015 - It is called The Shower of the Future and costs $4,412 U.S. Inspired by NASA but built to work here on Earth, this washing technology from Sweden is a closed loop system that saves 90% on water and 80% on energy.
August 21, 2015 - If we could directly harvest carbon dioxide (CO2) from the air and separate and capture the carbon while converting what's left to oxygen then that would really be a technology breakthrough of consequence in our fight against global warming. Sounds like science fiction? Well it's not.
August 19, 2015 - I am often asked by readers if it is worth putting solar panels on the roof of their homes. Here in Toronto solar powered houses are few and far between. But just because Toronto is in a northern country doesn't mean solar power is not a good alternative to grid-delivered electricity.
August 18, 2015 - It goes by the acronym SALt. It is the invention of a brother and sister from the Philippines. And it is an answer to a long enduring problem in the Developing World, providing light after dark when you have no access to power from a local or national grid.