In much the same way that we now expect every child’s toy to talk, in the future, we will expect virtually everything we own to be connected to the Internet.
Our mushrooming “Internet of Things” is growing exponentially, and estimates of its progression vary tremendously. GSMA estimates connecting 24 billion devices by 2020, while Cisco and Ericsson think we will hit 50 billion.
Depending on a few key breakthroughs, these estimates may all be on low end, and here’s why.
Telecom carriers are primarily concerned about devices that connect directly to the Internet, but a rapidly growing category of peripheral devices are designed to connect indirectly through smartphones, home or office Wi-Fi, or other smart devices.
Here are some of the innovations that could make this whole industry go viral.
Internet of Things – A Brief History
In a recent report by Cisco, the writers determined the Internet of Things was officially born between 2008-2009. This was the point where the number of devices exceeded the number of people on earth.
The number of connected devices per person reached 1.84 in 2010.
For some of us geeks, that number may seem low. This is because Cisco’s calculations were based on the population of the entire world, much of which is not yet connected to the Internet. By reducing the population sample to people actually connected to the Internet, the number of connected devices per person rises dramatically.
Since approximately 2 billion people use the Internet today, the number of connected devices per person in 2010 jumps to 6.25 instead of 1.84.
Internet of Things Ecosystem
From Beecham Research, the diagram above represents the Internet of Things ecosystem in different industry sectors like energy, healthcare, science, transportation, retail and others.
A 2011 study by Machina Research projected a sevenfold increase in revenues by 2020, creating a $1.2 trillion market opportunity for the wireless industry.
So where exactly are these opportunities? The study projected the following breakdown:
- Consumer electronics – $445 billion
- Automotive – $202 billion
- Health – $69 billion
- Utilities – $36 billion
“We are moving into a new era in connectivity where we will see the proliferation of billions of connected devices in the world. Most of that growth is coming from machine-to-machine: a new market for communications service providers, and with new dynamics,” says Jim Morrish, Director at Machina Research. “The way that mobile operators, device vendors, service providers and others in the value chain react to this opportunity will have important implications for their future success. Right now, the mobile industry has a clear opportunity to play a central role in the Connected Life.”
While most of the world is focused on adding intelligence to high dollar items such as cars, refrigerators, washer & driers, and lawnmowers the true connectedness revolution will happen with inexpensive low-end devices that only cost pennies to manufacture.
As pricing drops, manufacturers will routinely add everything from identification chips to freshness sensors as a part of nearly all of their packaging. Here are a few examples:
GPS Locator Devices: Creating simple GPS trackers that could be applied as a sticker would be an instant hit. These micro-tracking devices would make everything from purses, to cellphones, to car keys, to wallets instantly findable. Each person would have their own sphere of objects they could track and find instantly.
The Billion-Cam Video Network: If someone invented a simple, inexpensive solar or RF powered video camera that could easily be connected to a home or office Wi-Fi, there would be a mad rush to purchase them as an instant video security system. So what would it take to get people to connect 1 billion video cameras to the Internet? We may soon find out.
Personal Food Network: Most people have a hard time keeping track of all the food they have in their house at any given time. If the food industry started adding smart tags to all their packaging, simple apps could be created that monitor freshness, inventory, recommend possible meals, and creates grocery lists for the next time someone goes shopping.
Single Use Sensors: As soon as the iPhone was introduced with motion sensor technology, creative people around the world began asking the very simple question, “What other things can we do with motion sensors?” And the answers that app developers have come up with are more than a little ingenious.
So without waiting for smartphone companies to incorporate features into the smartphone itself, remote sensors with wireless signaling can open up opportunities in a spectacular fashion. To stir your thinking a bit, here are a few sensors that come to mind:
- Pressure Sensors: Anything that our physical body comes into contact with such as shoes, football helmets, pillows, chairs, and mattresses will be prime candidates for pressure sensors.
- Chemical Sensors: Are oxygen levels too high or too low? Why did this lotion burn my skin? Are there signs of mold and mildew in the carpet?
- Reflectivity: Will this paint cause my house to heat up or cool down? Do these windows let light in or reflect most of it away?
- Heat Sensors: These sensors will give us an understanding of all the micro-environments we exist in showing temperature variations inside and outside of clothing, above and below blankets, and in houses along pipes, windows, and any external walls.
- Moisture: Are these plants too wet or too dry? Is there a moisture leak in the ceiling? Does the diaper need changing?
- Vibration: Any piece of machinery that starts vibrating in an unusual manner is giving signs that something is wrong.
- Frequency: The sound and noise environments that we exist in play an important role in our health. An ability to map and trace frequencies throughout our day will give us amazing insight into both the audible and non-audible communities of sounds we find ourselves in.
- Smell and Odor: Should I enter that perfume shop or will it make me sick? Where is that odor coming from? Is this food fresh or stale?
- Spectrometer: Does this soil have the right kind of fertilizer? What kinds of chemicals are present in this makeup? Is there a chance carbon monoxide may be present?
- Speed: How fast is that horse running? How fast is that bird flying? At this pace, how long will it take for this snail to work its way over to the window?
In the 1990s, Kris Pister, a researcher at UC Berkley dreamed up the idea of sprinkling the Earth with countless tiny sensors, no larger than grains of rice.
These “smart dust” particles, as he called them, could be used to monitor everything. Acting like electronic nerve endings for the planet and fitted with computer processors, sensing equipment, wireless radios, and extended life batteries, smart dust would have the capabilities of providing huge volumes of real-time data about people, cities and our natural environment.
Future designs for smart dust will have them detecting everything from moisture content, to soil temperature, to chemical composition.
Farmer’s fields will be glowing with information. Whereas most have had the option in the past of selling “rights” associated with the land – water rights, mineral rights, and now wind rights – future farmers will also have the option of selling information rights.
Information gleaned from smart dust will be far more granular and instantaneous than any current information gathering technologies.
Data streams coming from these plants give them a “voice” that will help us better understand the idiosyncrasies of the world around us.
The topics I‘ve mentioned are only scratching the surface.
The number of linked sensors, cameras, and complex peripheral devices are already exploding around us, and ingenious people will figure out new and unusual ways to blend these streams of information into a cohesive intelligence layer that we can interact with in our daily lives.
As you might imagine, attempts to improve the sphere of knowability for purposes of convenience and safety will be confronted with serious resistance from those wishing to maintain a distinct layer of privacy for our protection. These will be tough decisions to wrestle through and the resulting public policy decisions will have far-reaching implications.
In the mean time, vast fortunes will be won and lost, as the Internet of Things becomes part and parcel to our daily lives.
About the author:
Thomas Frey is the innovation editor of THE FUTURIST magazine. This piece was originally posted on his Website, Futuristspeaker.com
Essays and comments posted in World Future Society and THE FUTURIST magazine blog portion of this site are the intellectual property of the authors, who retain full responsibility for and rights to their content. For permission to publish, distribute copies, use excerpts, etc., please contact the author. The opinions expressed are those of the author. The World Future Society takes no stand on what the future will or should be like.
Free Email Newsletter
To sign up for Futurist Update, our free monthly email newsletter, enter your email in the box below and click Save.
When my wife and I downsized we left our satellite dish and satellite TV behind and went back to cable because that's what was available in the building where we have our apartment. We are not alone in abandoning this technology. Homes that were early adopters of satellite TV can have enormous dishes sitting in backyards or rigged on to poles projected above the roof line of their homes.
I don't know about you but I've been wearing prescription glasses since I was seven years old. I've tried contact lenses several times and given up on them. I've contemplated laser vision correction but have been told that my astigmatism would make it less than effective.
The dot-com bubble caused a market crash in 2000, a housing bubble almost brought down the global economy in 2008, and today's gushing excitement over new US oil and gas discoveries could also prove to be a bubble that is likely to collapse about 2015 – a "carbon bubble."
Climate change is threatening the credit rating of nations. Standard & Poor's has indicated that the credit ratings of 128 nations are at risk. S&P sees climate change as a more challenging problem than the changing demographics of our human population from aging in the Developed World to surging population in Developing Nations.
Without the ocean Earth would be a pretty inhospitable place even though we lie within our Sun's Goldilocks Zone. Those of you who live by the ocean can probably figure out why that is the case. You see the ocean is a temperature moderator and a heat transport mechanism that evens out the climate across the planet.
The horror of 298 lives snuffed out by a missile is reverberating around the planet this week after last Thursday's downing of a Malaysian Airlines Boeing 777. How could missile technology meant to shoot down warplanes get used to destroy a civilian aircraft?
I remain skeptical about the economics of industrial technologies for carbon capture. Almost every project started has been heavily subsidized by government. But for the operators without government subsidy there seems to be no return on investment. First of all, all existing industrial carbon capture technologies are expensive to implement.
On a recent driving trip, my wife and I became immersed in the audio version of one of Tom Clancy’s last novels, titled “Threat Vector.” Without giving away too much of the plot, a Chinese super-geek villain has hatched a plan to hack into our most secure networks and blackmail people with their darkest secrets to subversively cause chaos and disruption for the American government.