Futuring Fact and Fiction

Futuring isn’t science fiction, and WorldFuture 2012 isn’t a gathering of science-fiction enthusiasts. However, the imaginative thought process that generates compelling science-fiction stories is the same one that futurists rely on when crafting “real-world” scenarios and forecasts.

“I think envisioning the future is very much at the root of what we do as science-fiction writers,” said Steve Wilson, author of the SF science-fiction audio series The Arbiter Chronicles. “We look at the world today and pick our own piece of it—say, technology—and what it will do Earth, or to society, or to us as humans.”

Wilson said this in an interview at Balticon, an annual science-fiction and fantasy convention that took place Memorial Day weekend at the Marriott Inn in Hunt Valley, Maryland. Thousands of fans and authors gathered for book discussions, writing workshops, art expos, film showings, and other fun and festivities.

Attendees of all ages had fun at last weekend's Balticon. (photo credit: misternizz.wordpress.com)

Amid the fiction-centered entertainment, however, were workshops that looked at humanity’s real future. Authors speculated on how present-day technological and societal trends would keep evolving and shape our ways of living.

In one panel, “Liberty and Other Inalienable Rights,” Wilson and five other speakers—Michael Ventrella, criminal defense attorney; and authors Tad Daley, Danny Birt, D.H. Aire, and James Maxey—discussed how human rights may change. Wilson, for example, said that he anticipates increasing advocacy for a right to Internet and telecommunications access.

“I think it’s going to develop as a right, in that you can’t function on planet Earth without access to these resources anymore,” Wilson said.

Aire voiced concern that Web technology and pressures on governments to cut spending might weaken demands for schooling. People might presume Web-based education to be a convenient substitute.

“Budget constraints might lead us to saying that we’re not going to offer education after 12th grade any more, not when you can get it for free on the Internet,” he said.

Ventrella warned that privacy rights are also in trouble. Governments and corporations will use surveillance systems to pry further and further into our lives.

“They know what you’re watching on TV, and we’re accepting that. My concern is we’ll end up in a future where we’re just accepting that we have no privacy,” he said.

On a brighter note, though, he sees more hope for animal rights. The advent of intelligent machines might broaden awareness that non-human beings have thoughts and feelings, too.

The right to have children could be downsized, though, according to Daley. He envisions resource scarcities pushing future governments to restrict the numbers of children that their citizens have—and they might not all play fair.

“I fear that it will be pretty involuntary. It might be rich people allowed to reproduce instead of poor people, white people instead of black people, all kinds of pernicious prescriptions could come up,” he said, though he added that positive measures, such as expanding education, could lead to more adults voluntarily having few or no children.

Another panel, “Introduction to Astrosociology,” was a primer on the emerging field of astrosociology, which studies the connections between space-related activities and human society. Simone Caroti, director of education and outreach for the Astrosociology Research Institute, spoke of the need for humanity to recognize Earth as a space-faring body, and humans as residents of space, before it can take on space travel in earnest.

“Only a race that is capable of understanding its place in a larger context than the Earth would be capable of devising the technologies to go out into space,” said Caroti. “The tools for us to go out into space will be ready for us to develop once we are ready psychologically to go out into space.”

A third panel, “How to Get to Other Stars—If We Can,” looked at the prospects for sending humans to other star systems. Nine authors—Maxey, Daley, Caroti, John Wright, Ian Strock, Eric Kotani, David Batchelor, Chuck Gannon, and Jody Lynn Nye—debated whether, when, and how humanity would take up interstellar travel.

“I think we’ll be the ones to colonize the Moon. The next generation will colonize Mars. Those people after them will reach the end of the solar system, and that following generation will travel to the stars,” said Batchelor, who cautioned that we will first need to figure out how to install onto the starship all the necessary industries, such as medical care, food production, and spacesuit fabrication.

The world community will also need to find a way to unite around the long-term goal, according to Strock. He said that humanity’s track record on long-term goals thus far is disappointing.

“There is no way that we’ll be able to build what we’re talking about—which won’t deliver a return on investment for a century or more—in a society where people have the option of putting their money into something that will make them richer in six months to a year,’” said Strock, who added that we will also need to develop techniques to biologically enhance the crew to withstand the voyage’s extreme mental and physical demands and, if possible, survive on reduced food, water, and oxygen.

Several panelists expressed concern about cosmic radiation, which is ubiquitous in deep space. The starship will need to shield the crew from it. According to Gannon, it could use one natural resource that appears to block cosmic rays: water.

Gannon also asked whether crews might hibernate during the voyage. Hospitals are already using cryogenics today to extend surgery times.

It’s been said that today’s science fiction is tomorrow’s science fact. Look at the technology around us—all products of modern science—and you’ll find multiple items that were tropes of science fiction a century ago. Clearly, scientists and science-fiction writers walk a common ground.

So do science-fiction writers and futurists. Both, indisputably, are enthusiasts of the future. And what is thinking creatively about the future, à la science fiction, but an initial step toward making a desirable future scenario happen?