Don't Stop Talking About Tomorrow

December is a natural time of year for both reflecting on the past and looking ahead to the new year.

As I think about the challenge of "futureproofing" an organization, I--like many other futurists--have come to believe in scenario planning as a powerful tool for helping to anticipate, and prepare for, the future. However, I also know that the value of any scenario depends critically on an organization's ability to imagine what the future could be like--to "think outside the box" and beyond the obvious trends.

And organizational imagination in turn depends on the collective wisdom and insights of a large and diverse group of thoughtful individuals who are willing to share their perspectives and to learn from each other. In short, the only way to develop meaningful scenarios of future possibilities is to engage in rich, extended conversations.

Thriving in the future means holding many conversations—with colleagues, with staff, with customers, with shareholders, with suppliers, and with representatives of every outside group that could possibly influence your future (including even competitors when you can get away with it).

Yet very few senior executives in 2012 fully recognize either the importance or the value of open-ended conversation.

In their classic text, "Competing for the Future," Gary Hamel and C.K. Prahalad reported that most senior executives spend less than 40% of their time focused on the world outside their own organization, only about 30% of that time thinking about the next three to five years, and no more than 20% talking with their colleagues about the future in order to build a collective view.

In other words, only about 2.4% of management time (40% x 30% x 20%) is focused on building a corporate view of the future (Gary Hamel and C.K. Prahalad, "Competing for the Future," Harvard Business School Press, 1994, p. 4.).

The most insightful analysis of the role of conversation in organizations that I am aware of was contained in a classic Harvard Business Review article by Alan Webber (former HBR Editor-in-Chief and the founder of Fast Company Magazine) way back in 1993. It is one of the most prescient articles about the formation of the so-called Knowledge Economy that I have ever read.

In "What's So New About the New Economy?" Webber suggested that conversation is at the very core of organizational "work" in the "new," information-based economy. In Webber's words:

"The logic goes like this: the revolution in information and communication technology makes knowledge the new competitive resource. But knowledge only flows through technology; is actually resides in people—in knowledge workers and the organizations they inhabit. In the new economy, then, the manager's job is to create an environment that allows knowledge workers to learn—-from their own experience, from each other, and from customers, suppliers, and business partners."

"The chief management tool that makes that learning happen is conversation. But the work of conversation introduces its own twist: it brings the character of the individual to the foreground of the workplace. If the job of the manager in the new economy is to eliminate fear, foster trust, and facility the working conversations that create new knowledge, then the authenticity, integrity, and identity of the individual turn out to be the most critical managerial assets."

Webber is raising an issue about the roles and responsibilities of management that goes well beyond simply talking about the future. But creating a context of trust, authenticity, integrity, and curiosity about the future is certainly a precondition for having meaningful conversations about the range of possible Tomorrows for an organization.

And what constitutes a meaningful conversation about the future? In my experience, an effective conversation includes:

- a commitment to listening and learning;
- equal attention to the content and the emotions being expressed;
- a willingness to be open, candid, and truthful regarding your intentions and perceptions;
- the avoidance of criticism; identify different perspectives by asking questions, not by making assertions;
- paying attention to the body language and tone of voice of the other participants; and
- a willingness to make commitments to future action based on the current conversation.

The most important thing to remember is that a genuine conversation involves give and take: sharing your own ideas and absorbing those of others. As that great American philosopher Yogi Berra once said, "We couldn't get a conversation going; everyone was talking too much."

Remember too that "talking about tomorrow" is not about "figuring out" the future. Never forget that the future doesn't exist yet; you and all the other people on the planet are creating it, one day at a time.

That said, the vast majority of organizational conversations focus on the present or the past, and on internal issues. But talking about tomorrow involves inquiry into broad, general questions about the unfolding external environment.

In those conversations be sure to pay close attention to the "unknowables," those uncertainties about the future that cannot be resolved today but that you believe could have a major impact on your organization.

If you are paying attention to which uncertainties are becoming less so, you'll know which of the alternative future scenarios are becoming more likely.

Meaningful conversations about the future will, over time, create a trusted community—-a community that includes not only direct employees but external business partners and a broader circle or "ecosystem" of independent thought leaders.

Futureproofing is about sharpening your peripheral vision through meaningful dialogues that leverage the diversity and many insights of your entire ecosystem.

To get started, develop a "map" of your ecosystem; identify existing relationships and interactions, and then work to create the conversations that are not happening but should be. Think through:

- who to have conversations about the future with;
- what to talk about (but leave plenty of room for spontaneity too); and
- what questions to ask (and to keep asking over time).

Finally, a caveat: it's very difficult to build a culture and capability focused on conversations about the future on your own. The most effective future-oriented organizations I know regularly engage with external experts and skilled group facilitators to help them have those conversations and build strategic planning processes that keep them focused on tomorrow. Don't go it alone; form an external Advisory Board of independent thought leaders and futurists.

And keep talking. But most of all, listen!