"Driverless Cars" As Dead-Ender Car Culture Apologia
While I do not deny the existence of reasonably working prototypes, I do not expect driverless cars to transform the transportation landscape in the way their boosters claim. Indeed, I am a bit surprised that anyone would consider such transformative claims the least bit more plausible than the patently ridiculous claims once made with comparable fanfare on behalf of Segways. It would seem that advertorial hype, the bread and butter of professional futurism as with its cousin PR disciplines, is the one product citizens socialized as consumers and users simply never can get enough of.
The paradox at the heart of most futurological handwaving about the "driverless car as revolution" is that they are simultaneously premised on the recognition that a radical transformation of car culture is demanded by its total failure -- a monument to extravagant waste, catastrophic pollution, maddening congestion, less walkable and hence less livable cities, horrific accidental deaths, unsustainable and anti-social suburban sprawl -- while engaging at once in a refusal to contemplate the one change without which no transformation could be adequate to the demands of this failure, let alone remotely "revolutionary": the actual relinquishment of car culture itself, the relinquishment of the cars.
I do not agree that driverless cars provide better means of satisfying the needs that trains, buses, and taxis do, and so I simply argue for more reliance on trains, buses, and taxis that actually already do provide for them instead. I do not agree that there is anything about driverless cars that facilitates good practices like car sharing, ride sharing, and collective car ownership and so I simply argue for car sharing, ride sharing, collective ownership arrangements on their actual merits instead.
The futurologically-inclined will no doubt see this as "negative" talk and "backward-looking" thinking. After all, why pooh-pooh putting one more option on the menu for a more sustainable future meal? But I do not agree that there is anything "positive" about enabling denial. I do not agree that there is anything "forward-looking" about efforts to solve problems that are less concerned with actually addressing the problems but with ensuring incumbent interests maintain their positions with the least cost. I happen to have noticed that ubiquitous cars are pretty much all we have on the menu already, and hence a "new option" of ubiquitous driverless cars looks to me a lot more like just the old menu peddled as a new menu.
People want to drive cars and own cars because they want a high level of control over the terms of their personal transportation. This fantasy of autonomy is almost entirely a romance without substance inculcated by a relentless torrent of car culture conceits: road movies in which true friendships are forged and rites of passage in which immature individuals are delivered into sovereign adulthood, mythic car chases in which the action hero in his cyborg shell obliterates all obstacles and achieves escape velocity to a wet-dream of freedom, ads in which sleek curvilinear fetal-metalized space capsules whoosh through cyberspatial freeways surrounded by glimmering skyscrapers, dreamy forests, vast desertscapes bereft of insurmountable barriers and usually bereft even of any other cars, ecstasies of agency as a frictionless "traffic" suffusing car culture no less than digital-utopianism as the prevailing figure of the techno-fetishistic post-WW2 American exceptionalist myth.
It is interesting that the driverless car, to the extent that it were actually used as such, would require a relinquishment of the very romance of autonomy and control without which car culture cannot rationalize itself in the first place. Without the romance of the car as a sort of super-hero costume worn by mass consumers in mass societies trying to impersonate rugged individualists there is nothing beyond the inertial tug of elite-incumbent interest to hold us fast to the catastrophe of car culture. It is for this reason that I personally doubt that the "driverless car" is really anything but a slightly souped-up version of already-available thoroughly non-revolutionary cruise control, to be used as such.
The irrational passions that drive car culture will also circumscribe the uses to which this feature will be put. Driverless cars will not be the revolution that transforms the transportation terrain because almost nobody who really wants such a revolution would want a driverless car in the first place, and almost nobody who actually recognizes the need for such a transformation would spend their time cheerleading driverless cars rather than advocating real solutions like more public transportation investment and changed zoning policies to encourage walkable cities.
As a practical matter very few people would actually be inconvenienced in the least by the necessity of making recourse to sensibly funded and maintained public transportation and the occasional taxi. Indeed, millions of Americans, millions here and now, millions who would not seriously contemplate the possibility for a moment would find their lives enriched and not diminished by the relinquishment of their cars (obviously there are exceptions, but the point remains), even with the dire state of our actually-existing public transportation infrastructure. There is every reason to re-shift our budgetary and policy priorities to facilitate mass transit options and make our cities more walkable, bikable, livable, sustainable.
Those who would shake their heads at the naivete of this claim are free to do so. I believe they are wrong, and I am happy to argue with them on the merits, given our shared economic and ecologic problems, and given the centrality of sustainable cities to so many of the solutions to those problems actually within our collective grasp. But I despair of arguments with people who don't believe in the practical possibility of solutions equal to our problems who will not concede the fact of their disbelief, but instead pretend to be collaborators in the work toward solutions the better to promote pseudo-solutions ("geo-engineering" "driverless cars" "online universities") that distract our intelligence and effort away from that work, and even exacerbate the very problems at hand.
Also published at Amor Mundi.
- About WFS
- Resources
- Interact
- Build
Notice
Essays and comments posted in World Future Society and THE FUTURIST magazine blog portion of this site are the intellectual property of the authors, who retain full responsibility for and rights to their content. For permission to publish, distribute copies, use excerpts, etc., please contact the author. The opinions expressed are those of the author. The World Future Society takes no stand on what the future will or should be like.
Free Email Newsletter
Sign up for Futurist Update, our free monthly email newsletter. Just type your email into the box below and click subscribe.
Blogs
Headlines at 21st Century Tech for May 17, 2013

This is my last posting for the next few days. I will be taking my office apart so that we can move to our new apartment downtown next Tuesday. I will be unplugged and disconnected except by tablet. Expect me to be back in the saddle before the end of next week probably in time to provide you with some more headlines. In the interim these are the stories I share with you this week:
Colorado: the Alternative Transportation Mecca?

Today, literally thousands of alternative transportation vehicles are coming out of the woodwork and they nearly all have the same problem – no place to drive them. Most are banned from biking and hiking trails, and they are neither licensed, nor licensable, for use on the streets. I’d like to discuss some new possible solutions and why Colorado is poised to take the lead in the alternative transportation marketplace.
Googlenature
In a recent conference promoting not only their latest gizmos but their company's animating vision as well, Google executives declared they were working toward a future in which technology "disappears," "fades into the background," becomes more "intuitive and anticipatory." Commenting on this apparently "bizarre mission for a tech company," Bianca Bosker warns that their genial and enthusiastic promotional language masks Google's aspiration to omnipresence via invisibility, an effort to render us dependent and uncritical of their prevalence through its marketing as easy, intuitive, companionable.
Backing into Eden: Chapter 2 – The Beasts of the Field

Occasionally during meetings one of my staff – an avid birder – will elbow me and I’ll look up and glimpse a bald eagle. Each time, I am in awe. I live in Washington State, which is home to a plethora of eagles, where pods of Orca ply the waters near the San Juan Islands, and where roads are sometimes blocked by herds of elk.
Energy Update: An Environmental Engineer's 2030 Forecast

In this month's Report on Business Magazine, a supplement that comes with The Globe and Mail, one of Canada's national newspapers, Stanford University's Mark Jacobson provides a best case scenario
Peter Thiel Against Hollywood Against "The Future"
According to The Hollywood Reporter, celebrity tech CEO Peter Thiel is upset that movies like The Matrix and Avatar make technological innovation seem "destructive and dysfunctional."
Crowdsourcing to Hunt for Power Plants

A team of researchers are asking the public to help them locate and count all the sources of CO2 coming from power plants on the planet.
UK Scientists Create A New Wheat Strain Through Embryology Not Genetic Manipulation

Initial results from a selective breeding program at the National Institute of Agricultural Botany based in Cambridge in the UK, indicate the successful creation of a new super wheat.


Like us on Facebook
Comments
Seconded...
... albeit with the caveat that there's one industry where the driverless vehicle is going to engage in some serious disruption, and that's long-distance haulage. All those truck drivers lobbying against fuel price increases would be better off thinking about retraining and planning their exit strategy from an industry where human limitations and comfort have always been a serious impediment to profit.
The issue with your argument,
The issue with your argument, which was well put, is not the correctness of your alternative, rather the feasibility...
How many decades do we need to spend arguing for transit before it actually gets built? Another 10?
The fact of the matter is this - public transit has lost the fight - in America at least. One can't simpy 'build' walkable cities as if on a whim - all Western nations haOve more or less completed urbanization and any changes to them will be mere fiddling at the edges.
I used to advocate for publicH transport, until self driving cars arrived as a concept.
In my opinion, they are clearly more viable as an option, as they are a natural evolution of our current 'old menu' and build upon existing infrastructure without requiring anything new to be built, which of course is the greatest problem to face any aspiring transport revolution.
I would suggest that the greatest impact will not necessarily be in human transportation - although this will be massive - rather in logistics. To be able to transport goods without a driver, MOST especially over the last mile, will completely change retail. It will make the current retail environment for physical retailers unsustainable and probably cause most to shut down.
The major bonus for manufacturers is that they don't have to convince governments to spend money which means that the largest barrier for public transport isn't even a small hurdle for auto companies.
Mat.
Eyes on the Prize
public transit has lost the fight - in America
The prospects for public transport haven't been this bright in a generation, cities are starting to invest in and augment their systems, California is starting its supertrain, the minute Dems overcome the obstructionist neofeudal GOP infrastructure and stimulus would fund still more. Reform is a long slog, keep your eyes on the Prize.
self driving cars arrived as a concept
It's an ad for souped up cruise control hyped as revolution. When the "concept" doesn't pan out in revolution (which is not to deny the idea may be adopted by plenty enough folks to make it profitable) I do hope you will return to advocacy for public transit, which will still be there being as right and as plausible as ever.
This is a salient point : the
This is a salient point : the Prize. The Prize, in my view, is sustainability.
Cars are now inches away from sustainability. No public money needs to be spent, except on regulation, and not only this but the private sector is pouring money into it. It's a perfect storm - a genuine solution, to be supported by the market and very little political will required! To this point both Dems and the GOP can't get enough of it!
Teachable Moment
Cars are now inches away from sustainability. No public money needs to be spent... a genuine solution, to be supported by the market and very little political will required!
Later, and not so very long from now, when you see how flabbergastingly wrong you were to think this, I want you not to forget it, not to drop it, not to move on to comparable handwaving, but to remember this and how you felt and what made you so sure and actually learn from it. But I ain't mad atcha, since I agree sustainability is the Prize.
Agree mostly, but
I agree: more public transport is certainly the solution. Many places in Europe are already implementing this idea with much success, so I don't find it far-fetched or naive. It is just a natural extension of what we already have.
On the other hand, I do feel driverless cars would be a good alternative to taxis. First, they would be cheaper (no driver fees); second, you wouldn't be subject to taxi drivers. Even though most of them are perfectly professional people, there are still enough examples of drivers who will try to cheat you, who will smoke in their car or who will be rude or politically incorrect for me to want to ditch them in favour of a less personal, more aseptic experience. Though maybe that's just where I live (Spain and China) and does not apply elsewhere. Getting a taxi in Beijing is downright unpleasant.
So, not a revolution but an improvement on a segment of public transport.
No buts about it...
not a revolution but an improvement on a segment of public transport
That's more like it.
Why I want a driverless car
I already cannot drive at night, and I'm only 55. I hate driving a car, but I hate having to accomadate myself to mass transit's schedule and locations. I want to go where I want to, when I want to, from where I am, and not worry about driving there.
If Wishes And Buts Were Clusters of Nuts...
...we'd all have a bowl of granola.
If more people used mass
If more people used mass transit and fewer people drove cars, then mass transit would be a lot more efficient. Trains/buses could be run more frequently and fares would be cheaper. Car use results in a feedback loop. Widespread car use leads to adaptations in the urban environment which further encourages car use and discourages other modes of transportation by making them less efficient.
Word!
I say again: Word.
Testosterone
Your arguments are not based on gray matter but on testosterone. In >1/2 of humanity the name of the game is estrogen, much less pedal-happy. However, even in T-half of humanity less of half is of T-ruled age, of which less than half have more gonads than brains. Go on the road and start counting practically designed cars against glitzy designed ones to see my point. The shark-fins age is over, if it ever was; to most people driving is just another chore.
Post new comment