How can we fix the problem of wicked messes?

We usually think about difficult problems of future and alternative strategies for coping with them, but we rarely find effective solutions.

CLA has been offered by Dr. Inayatullah (2004) as a response to such problems, but a problem with CLA is its softness in building shared vision among different researchers who look at the same topic of study through CLA’s glasses. This can be more colorful in social problems, as people have different social perspectives, especially when they reach the CLA’s fourth layer: “Myths & Metaphors”. My social judgment may be different from yours and so yours with others’. Is there a way out of this dead end?

The general perception amongst most futurists is that we can somehow control the future (Lombardo, 2006), says David Hancock (2004), one of the most ill-conceived in terms of risk management.

The problem is how to measure risks in terms of their potential likelihood, their possible consequences, their correlation and the public's perception of them. The situation is further complicated by identifying different categories of problem types; Tame problems (straight-forward simple linear causal relationships and can be solved by analytical methods), and 'messes' which have high levels of system complexity and have interrelated or interdependent problems needing to be considered holistically.

However, when an overriding social theory or social ethic is not shared, we also face with 'wickedness'. Wicked problems are characterized by high levels of behavioral complexity, but what confuses real decision-making is that behavioral and dynamic complexities co-exist and interact in what is known as wicked messes.

Hancock’s book "Tame, Messy and Wicked Risk Leadership" helps professionals understand the limitations of the present project and risk management techniques. It introduces the concepts of societal benefit and behavioral risk, and illustrates why risk has followed a particular path, developing from the basis of engineering, science and mathematics.

Hancock (2004) argues for, and offers, complimentary models from the worlds of sociology, philosophy and politics to be added to the risk toolbox, and provides a framework to understand which particular type of problem (tame, messy, wicked or messy and wicked) may confront us and which tools will provide the greatest potential for successful outcomes.

Finally, he introduces the concept of 'risk leadership' to aid the professional in delivering projects in a world of uncertainty and ambiguity. Anyone who has experienced the pain and blame of projects faced with overruns of time or money, dissatisfied stakeholders of basic failure, will welcome this imaginative reframing of some aspects of risk management. This is an approach that has implications for the risk management processes, culture, and outcomes, of large and complex projects of all kinds.

It seems that we need a pre-CLA step to identify the problems we want to study by this method. We should firstly determine them as Tame or Wicked. CLA is more suitable for the study of ‘Tame’ problems. However, if we are going to use it for ‘Wicked’ ones, we should address wicked messes. We need to master 'risk leadership' before dealing with any kind of wicked problem by CLA method. Hancock (2004) reminds us that the key to the solution of wicked messes lies in the people and the use of discussion and forums to explore these problems and understand the limitations of the solution.

Perhaps, our dear futurist friend Dr. Inayatullah may lead a constructive discussion on improving his CLA method that has served helpfully a wide range of foresight initiatives in recent decade.

References:
Hancock, David (2004). Tame problems & wicked messes: choosing between management and leadership solutions, http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0ITW/is_11_86/ai_n14897554/pg_1/
Inayatullah, S. (2004). The causal layered analysis reader: Theory and case studies of an integrative and transformative methodology. Tamsui, Taiwan: Tamkang.
Lombardo, T. (2006). Contemporary Futurist Thought: Science Fiction, Future Studies, and Theories and Visions of the Future in the Last Century. Bloomington, IN: AuthorHouse.

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Alireza Hejazi is the founding editor of Futures Discovery website (http://www.futuresdiscovery.com/). He is currently an MA student of Strategic Foresight at Regent University School of Global Leadership & Entrepreneurship.