Why
a Web Log
February 2007
© 2007
World Future Society
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February 2007,
No. 1
Profile Why a web log?
It seems like everyone with much or even little to
say is entering the ‘blogosphere’ these days, resulting in a good
deal of white noise. However, issues relating to foresight, futuring
or just the study of the future are not often given the attention
they deserve. And where more appropriate to remedy this than on the
Web site of the World Future Society? Not only do we see a good deal
of the new material in the futures field, but our worldwide network
(80 countries and growing) brings together a unique group of
experienced, knowledgeable and dare I say committed people who are
passionate about issues and information relating to the future. It
is my hope that this Blog will become a Dialogue, not only with me,
but with each other…..about what the Society is doing and what it
could be in the future.
I was appearing on a US Public Broadcasting System listener
call-in radio show recently and one of the questions that came up
from a caller was "Is everybody a futurist now?"
Listen to the interview. With expanding
access to information and resources, a better understanding of the
wisdom of crowds and a growing global interconnection, it is clear
that everybody could be a futurist, given the right tools, if they
wanted to be. And that possibility seems as good as any to increase
the involvement of WFS members and interested persons in exploring
questions that appear worth exploring. As with the conferences,
getting together with people of similar interests is always
stimulating, but doesn’t happen nearly often enough for me….so I
thought I would begin a dialogue in the New Year, starting with a
few big, broad questions but focusing in on whenever it seems to
make sense.
It is clear that the future is a pretty big place, and there is a
great deal to talk about, but here is how I would like to
start….posing a few questions I think are worth asking, and taking a
first stab at my own answers, but then throwing open the doors. Not
only about my answers but the questions in the first place….were
they the right ones or completely off the mark. Not only will I see
feedback but so will you, and the discussion might move toward the
answers, new questions, etc. Each week, I commit to a short summary
of what I got out of last week and some new questions and answers. I
love to talk, so I am not likely to run out of things to say, but
that is part of my job description. I am much more interested in
what you have to say, and I would guess the same is true of the WFS
membership, or we wouldn’t have so many people show up at
conferences. I am starting wide, with four possible questions, but
we can see what stirs the most interest and go with that, or follow
suggestions that arise. So, off we go!
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Where is the Future Going? |
Questions:
- What is the study of the future all about? What are its goals?
- Who is a futurist? Someone who has a degree from a college
program or anyone who cares about the future and has opinions about
what, where and how it will unfold?
- What is happening to the Study of the Future? Is it getting
easier or harder to understand change and all its nuances?
- What is the most important change we are witnessing today?
What will be the most important change in five to ten years?
My Own Answers:
- As accurately predicting the future appears a scientific
impossibility (i.e. consistent accuracy versus lucky shots), it
seems that creating a productive process and mindset might be a more
reasonable and reachable goal. That would involve where to look, how
to look, what to look for and perhaps what to do with what you find.
- From the beginning, I have believed that anyone who takes a
thoughtful look at tomorrow is a futurist, regardless of what they
call themselves or whether they have formal training in a foresight
process. But I would throw in a couple of personal caveats – First,
I believe a futurist would be a person who looks across the silos we
usually encounter (for example, technology, economics, politics,
marketing, culture) with an eye to seeing how as many of these as
possible influence the others …because that seems to be how the
world actually works. Second, I would imagine that a futurist is
someone who considers the meaning of the future, or the ‘So What?’
How might this change affect, for example, people’s lifestyles,
regional political stability or the success or failure of a
business. And third, I would hope a futurist would not hold out one
specific future as ‘The One’ but might in contrast offer ways to
assess a range of possibilities as to their probability, relevance
and impact.
As you might imagine, I did not even begin to scratch the surface
of ‘What does a futurist look and act like and why should we have
them?’
- Actually, this is a very exciting question, as I think we are
now at a turning point in the study of the future. The comparison
that comes to mind is physics (although physics is only one of the
many disciplines that have to be included in a futures mindset)
which started a good while ago as a straight-forward, cause-effect
matter, but evolved with observation theory, quantum mechanics and
now dark matter into a much more complex and nuanced field. Avoiding
the question of what category (field, discipline etc.) to put the
study of the future into, there seems to be little question that as
the world grows more complex, dynamic and perhaps even difficult to
understand, the tools of forecasting and foresight need to evolve as
well. It is my belief that is happening, in modeling, in data
analysis and in methodology, with additional innovation on the
horizon…What’s your sense?
- This final question is the most interesting one, and I am
going to invoke author’s privilege….I promise to answer it, but not
immediately. I am very sure that I do not need to jump start that
conversation but I will say that the last time someone asked I
answered two words…"Converging Technologies"…..How about you?
Let us hear from you.
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Just because I will be putting up new questions each week does
not mean these basic ones would disappear, so feel free to jump back
to a old questions with new ideas or information…that’s how I work
on articles, so let’s give it a try and see how it goes. We can
start out talking about a broad range of subjects, but if some area
or question seems like it get a large share of attention, then we
might peel it off to its own forum….I’m interested in ideas about
how this dialog might work as well as what we should cover. Your
turn!
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