Changing Our Minds about the Future
Futurists have the prerogative--and the duty--to occasionally change
their minds about the future. For example, when the much-vaunted prediction of a paperless
office in the Information Age didn't come to pass (at least, not yet), futurists set out
to analyze why not.
In this issue of THE FUTURIST, historian and information-society analyst
David J. Staley breaks down our ideas about books, print, information, and ideas,
and examines them in terms of two different economic paradigms: information as a public
commons and information as property. Whether books and print will disappear anytime soon
will be determined by which paradigm wins, he argues. (See "The Future of the Book in
a Digital Age," page 18 of the print edition.)
Economic paradigms are also in transition in the area of food and
agriculture, notes policy analyst Graham T.T. Molitor. In "Food and
Agriculture in the 21st Century: Rethinking Our Paradigms," he describes the myriad
of trends in science, technology, economics, international relations, and other sectors
that are altering the policy landscape. Decisions on whether to subsidize certain farmers
or certain crops have dramatic ripple effects across a range of economic and political
issues, including trade, aid, and consumers' pocketbooks. (See page 40.)
Clearly it is vital to be able to change our minds about the future as
trends evolve, as Staley and Molitor demonstrate. But how do we go about it? One key is to
be aware of the models we are using in our analyses--and to be aware of those models'
limitations, advises consultant Gregory Pashke. He points out that models may be
useful tools, but they can also be mind traps. (See "The Use and Abuse of
Models," page 48.)
One way to help us out of those traps is to look at problems from many
different angles before even attempting to solve them. This will help us to think in ways
we have never thought before. In this issue, creativity consultant Michael Michalko
shows how to develop more-productive creative-thinking skills. (See "Learning New
Ways to Think Creatively," page 52.)
