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by Cindy Wagner, Managing Editor

The Singularity Is Coming. Or Not

Technological progress and the amount of complexity it produces may be approaching a "Singularity," when old models of reality will need to be thrown out and new rules invented. Beyond the Singularity, life will have evolved to the point where no distinction exists between technology and nature, maintains environmental writer James John Bell. At that point, life as we know it will be extinct. (See "Exploring the 'Singularity' " page 18 of the print version.)

But not so fast, says physicist and strategic analyst Theodore Modis. While it is true that technology and complexity have increased at an exponential rate, they may soon slow down, just as natural competition slows down the proliferation of rabbits in a fenced meadow. (See "The Limits of Complexity and Change," page 26 of the print version.)

Who is right, Bell or Modis? We won't have to wait long to learn whether the Singularity will happen or not: It's predicted to occur in about 35 years. THE FUTURIST will continue to follow the developments and the debate, so send evidence, essays--and advice--to us.

Better yet, why not join a thousand of your fellow futurists at the World Future Society's annual meeting in San Francisco in July to discuss the Singularity and other hot topics?

While you're there, you'll be able to meet many of the authors contributing to THE FUTURIST, including Gene Stephens, professor emeritus of criminal justice at the University of South Carolina; consulting futurist Joseph F. Coates; and Vladimir Mironov, a surgeon and tissue engineer whose work in cell printing made headlines recently.

For more details on the conference, "WorldFuture 2003: 21st Century Opportunities and Challenges," click here.

Order the  May-June 2003  issue or  join the World Future Society for $45 per year and receive THE FUTURIST, Futurist Update, Future Times, and many other benefits.

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