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 A magazine of forecasts, trends, and ideas about the future. July-August 2000, Vol. 34, No. 4 |
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About
This Issue by Cindy Wagner, Managing Editor Tomorrow's Breakthroughs In a 1997 article for THE FUTURIST, William E. Halal<$> and his colleagues at the George Washington University described the work of a unique, long-term project to examine the component breakthroughs forming the Technology Revolution we are now experiencing. In this issue, Halal updates the GW Forecast of Emerging Technologies project. Among the earlier breakthroughs to be retired from the latest list of "emerging technologies" are holistic health care, which has now entered the mainstream, and personal rapid transit, which the GW panel believes no longer offers the significant impact once expected, according to Halal. The special report "The Top 10 Emerging Technologies" previews the breakthroughs that may have high impacts for the decade ahead--such as portable information devices, fuel-cell cars, precision farming, and technologies that enable "teleliving." In addition, the report provides a glimpse of the top breakthroughs for the years beyond--maglev connections among major cities, genetically designed children, optical computers, cloned and artificial organs, and a Moon base. (See the special report following page 26 in the print edition.) The mission of the GW Forecast is not simply to predict the future but to help us prepare for change and avoid the negative consequences of being surprised. Like technology, the environment is a major area in which changes can and must be monitored over long periods of time. As Worldwatch Institute researcher Chris Bright<$> reports, the process of environmental change is gradual and predictable, but time is running out for correcting the problems that are foreseeable. (See "Environmental Surprises: Planning for the Unexpected," page 41 in the print edition.) Even the ultimate environmental "surprise"--a planet-devastating hit from an asteroid, meteor, or comet--can be monitored and perhaps avoided, writes Charles Frankel,<$> a planetary geologist and author. In "Avoiding Cosmic Catastrophes," he offers an overview of the study of near-Earth objects, their potential impacts, and what we can do to prevent extinction-level events. (See page 23 in the print edition.) To order the print edition of the July-August 2000 issue of THE FUTURIST ($4.95 plus $3 postage and handling) or to become a member of the World Future Society ($39 per year).
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