PREDICTING FUTURE HAPPINESS
Some people are naturally optimistic or pessimistic, but how accurately they
predict the level of satisfaction they may attain in the future depends on a
variety of factors, according to research published in PSYCHOLOGICAL
SCIENCE.
In
a study led by Brandeis University psychologist Margie Lachman, subjects
were surveyed over a nine-year period. In the first survey, in 1995-1996,
participants between the ages of 24 and 74 rated their satisfaction with
life now, with life 10 years earlier, and with how life may be in another 10
years. They were asked the same questions again in 2004.
Lachman and colleagues discovered that there are age-related differences in
how individuals view both the past and the future; those age 65 and older
rated the past and present equally satisfying but predicted that the future
would be less satisfying. Those under age 65 were more optimistic about the
future and believed they would be more satisfied a decade hence.
"These more negative expectations from older adults may be their way of
bracing for an uncertain future, a perspective that can serve a protective
function in the face of losses and that can have positive consequences if
life circumstances turn out to be better than expected," says Lachman.
SOURCE: "Realism and Illusion in Americans' Temporal Views of Their Life
Satisfaction,"
PSYCHOLOGICAL SICENCE (September 2008)
GAMING FOR FORECASTERS
A
new research platform for collaboratively imagining futures scenarios
through games has been launched by the Institute for the Future, an
independent nonprofit research organization based in Palo Alto, California.
The
first game to be launched in the new Massively Multiplayer Forecasting
platform is the Superstruct Game, which asks players to consider solutions
to superthreats such as global food shortages, mass homelessness, and
pandemics. Other games will include earthquake simulations and care giving.
The goals of the games are to "address real-world problems by harnessing the
wisdom of crowds," according to the Institute.
Says IFTF's Howard Rheingold, "Massively multiplayer forecasting games is
not just a new tool for forecasting, but also a continuation of IFTF's
efforts to make forecasting more public, more inclusive, and more
experiential."
Among the IFTF researchers involved in developing the Superstruct Game is
Jamais Cascio, whose article on scenarios for the Singularity will appear in
the November-December 2008 issue of THE FUTURIST (mailed to subscribers
October 5).
SOURCES: Institute for the
Future,
Play the
Superstruct Game game here.
|
 HANDLING
COMPLEXITY WITH INNOVATION AND CREATIVITY
The
theme of the World Future Society's next annual meeting, WorldFuture 2009,
is Innovation and Creativity in a Complex World. Mark your calendars now!
The conference will be held in Chicago at the beautiful Chicago Hilton hotel, July 17-19, 2009.
Among the
forward-thinking experts you'll meet are Ian D. Pearson of Futurizon,
formerly a futurologist for British Telecommunications; bioethicist Arthur
D. Caplan of the University of Pennsylvania; Esther Franklin, executive vice
president and director of cultural identities for Starcom MediaVest Group;
Edward E. Gordon, president of Imperial Consulting; Joseph R. Greene, former
director of ICE, Office of Training and Development; and Mohan K. Tikku,
director of the Centre for Future Studies in Gurgaon, India.
SAVE $250! REGISTER BY OCTOBER 15:
LEARN MORE:
SUBMIT A
SESSION PROPOSAL (Deadline, November 18, 2008):
SUBMIT
A CONFERENCE VOLUME ESSAY (Deadline, March 2, 2009):
-
Early submissions urged! |
GROWING DEMAND FOR COSMETIC SURGERY PRODUCTS
The
demand for cosmetic surgery products in the United States is expected to
swell by 8.4% per year over the next four years, according to the Freedonia
Group.
The
trends contributing to this growth include an aging population, an
increasingly competitive workforce, and greater social acceptance of
cosmetic surgeries and products. Less-invasive surgeries requiring little or
no recovery time will see the fastest growth, the company predicts.
Advances in silicone implants and other cosmetic technologies also reassure
nervous customer-patients about the safety of procedures. And the
introduction of Botox in the 1990s as a quick wrinkle reducer also helped
accelerate growth in the injectables sector.
One
potential negative factor in the U.S. cosmetic-surgery market is the impact
of current economic hard times. Consumers seeking more affordable treatments
may increasingly go overseas, limiting growth in the United States,
Freedonia's report warns.
SOURCE: "Cosmetic Surgery Products" (2008, 261 pages, $4,600), The Freedonia
Group Inc., 767 Beta Drive, Cleveland, Ohio 44143. Web site
www.freedoniagroup.com
PICKING THE NEXT U.S. PRESIDENT
Research by two separate futures organizations offer help for Americans
going to the polls in November to pick a new president.
In
COMPARING CANDIDATES, the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation
offers a side-by-side comparison of the technology policy platforms of U.S.
presidential candidates senators John McCain (Republican) and Barack Obama
(Democrat). "Innovation drives long-term national economic growth and has in
fact been responsible for 80% of the growth in the U.S. economy since World
War II," according to ITIF. "This places technology and innovation squarely
at the center of the issue—the economy—that voters have identified as the
most important in the 2008 Presidential election."
DETAILS:
ITIF,
And, in PICKING A PRESIDENT: CHARISMA OR COMPETENCE? an article
available for download from his Web site, business consultant and futurist
Karl Albrecht summarizes a research project that sheds light on the way
Americans choose their presidents.
According to Albrecht, the electorate needs a better way to choose its
leaders than asking questions like, Does the candidate have sufficient
experience?–a weak predictor of success, according to many historians. A
better question, he believes, would focus on the necessary traits of
character and competence the candidate possesses.
DETAILS:
|
FUTURE SURVEY MINI-GUIDE: METHODOLOGIES
The latest issue of
FUTURE SURVEY (August 2008) is a 40-page mini-guide to nearly a hundred key
books and reports focusing on futures methodologies. This special report
should be of great interest to futurists and can serve as a valuable
introduction to the tools of the trade.
"Many Methods and
Mentors: Thinking About Change and Shaping Futures," assembled by FS editor
Michael Marien, is the fourth in a series of mini-guides to significant
futures subjects (previous mini-guides have collected abstracts on global
warming and energy, democracy, and security and peace).
Marien organized
the many methodologies covered by "5 P's and a Q": i.e., "Probable Futures,
Possible Futures, Preferred Futures, Present Trends, Panoramic Views, and
Questioning/Critiquing all of the above all of the time."
ORDER NOW: |
CLICK OF THE MONTH:
Live
Tech Support at CNET's "Editors' Office"
http://cnettv.cnet.com/editors-office-hours
The
popular online consumer electronics site CNET, a division of CBS
Interactive, has launched a new live show, "Editor's Office Hours." The live
daily 30-minute show will feature a CNET editor offering advice on popular
high-tech gadgets, trends, troubleshooting, and more.
"Our editors receive hundreds of e-mails from users who want answers to
their burning tech questions, from specific tech product recommendations to
learning more about how to get the most of their tech gadgets," says CNET
content VP Scott Ard.
The
program streams Monday through Friday from 11:30 a.m. to noon Pacific time.
|
 Postage,
paper, and other cost increases have forced the Society to raise dues
effective October 15. But you can join or extend your membership now at the
old rates. Visit
http://www.wfs.org today!
|
FUTURIST UPDATE: News &
Previews from the World Future Society is an e-mail newsletter published
monthly as a supplement to THE FUTURIST magazine. Copyright © 2008,
World Future Society, 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450, Bethesda, MD
20814, USA. Telephone 1-301-656-8274; e-mail
mailto: info@wfs.org ; Web
site http://www.wfs.org .
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mailto:cwagner@wfs.org
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Tucker, mailto:ptucker@wfs.org
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Submit feedback: to
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The WORLD FUTURE SOCIETY is
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