A Cold War May Be Brewing Over the Arctic, A Futurist
Warns
Bethesda--8.1.07-- The combination of
intense climate change and growing demand for natural
resources could turn the mineral-rich Arctic into some
of the most contested real-estate on the globe, futurist
Lawson W. Brigham writes in “Thinking About the Arctic’s
Future: Scenarios for 2040,” part of the
September-October issue of THE FUTURIST magazine, on
store shelves now.
www.wfs.org. The Arctic could soon become an
integral part of the global economic system, says
Brigham, and continued competition among the five Arctic
coastal states (Canada, Denmark and Greenland, Norway,
Russia, and the United States) for the natural resources
trapped in the Arctic Ocean seabed could emerge as a
major driver of regional geopolitics in the years ahead.
“Significant environmental changes in the region include
retreating sea ice, melting glaciers, thawing
permafrost, increasing coastal erosion, and shifting
vegetation zones. The Arctic Ocean could even be
temporarily ice-free during summer 2040. These changes
have profound consequences for the indigenous people,
for all Arctic species and ecosystems, and for any
anticipated economic development. The Arctic is also
understood to be a large storehouse of yet-untapped
natural resources, a situation that is changing rapidly
as exploration and development accelerate in places like
the Russian Arctic,” writes Brigham.
The author also notes that expanded exploration of the
polar region, and the harvesting of the region’s
resources, could give rise to as-yet unexamined
phenomena. For instance, “future ships voyaging into the
Arctic Ocean could bring alien species in their ballast
water and increase air emissions into the cooler surface
atmosphere of the Arctic.”
According to Brigham, the fact that the Arctic will
change dramatically in the years ahead is all but
certain; what that change will mean for the people of
the region and global economy is up to the actors that
are, today, shaping the region’s future.
“There can be little doubt that extraordinary change is
coming to the entire region and its people. These four
scenarios of the Arctic in 2040 are designed to be
provocative but plausible. Hopefully, they might
stimulate strategic thought and rational discussion
about how the Arctic region should evolve throughout the
twenty-first century,” he writes.
Purchase a PDF of the article directly from the World
Future Society at
www.wfs.org. Or pick up the September-October issue
of THE FUTURIST for $4.95 at bookstores and newsstands,
or write the World Future Society, 7910 Woodmont Ave.,
Suite 450, Bethesda, MD 20814.
THE FUTURIST is a bimonthly magazine focused on
innovation, creative thinking, and emerging social,
economic, environmental, and technological trends.
Among the thinkers and experts who have contributed to
THE FUTURIST are Gene Roddenberry, Al Gore, Newt
Gingrich, Richard Lamm, Alvin and Heidi Toffler,
Buckminster Fuller, Frederik Pohl, Isaac Asimov, Vaclav
Havel, Hazel Henderson, Margaret Mead, Robert McNamara,
Betty Friedan, Nicholas Negroponte, Helena Norberg-Hodge,
Lester R. Brown, Arthur C. Clarke, Douglas Rushkoff,
Joel Garreau, William J. Mitchell, and U.S. Comptroller
David M. Walker.
Editors: To request a review copy of THE FUTURIST
magazine, contact director of communications Patrick
Tucker, 301-656-8274 (ext. 116), or
ptucker@wfs.org.
More information about the World Future Society may be
obtained from the Society’s Web site,
www.wfs.org
CONTACT INFORMATION
Patrick Tucker
World Future Society
ptucker@wfs.org
301-656-8274 |
