A magazine of forecasts, trends, and ideas about the future
Related Interviews with:  Tim O'Reilly       Stephen Abram         Douglas Rushkoff       Frank Daniels

July-August 2008 Volume 42, No. 4

 

Page 3.

The Future Writer

In the 1990s, most news publishers responded to the rise of the Web with the assumption that Web sites could serve as advertisements for newspapers, but weren’t likely to replace papers themselves. Others began tweaking their business models to fit what they saw as the new market conditions—creating more content and giving more of it away, incrementally. A few, like Daniels, who was working at the The News and Observer in Raleigh, North Carolina, in 1993, saw the Internet as a gamechanging technology for journalism.

“When Mosaic came out, we began doing Web sites and publishing on the Internet,” Daniels said. “What we learned was that it’s all around story. It’s about creating the opportunity for consumers to get information in the most effective way possible— what they want, when they want it, at the time they most need it. We began telling [news] stories in multimedia with audio and interactive graphics and video back in 1994.… We sold all our newspapers but one in 1995.”

Across the United States, newspapers and magazines are focusing their resources more and more on their Web sites. In the process, they’re giving voice to an entirely new breed of digital journalist even as they show the door to news department veterans. Many writers are justifiably alarmed by the shift, but, according to Daniels, writers who are willing to view themselves as storytellers first and foremost, who are eager to incorporate new technology into the writing process, have a bright future.

“What’s the biggest thing that held up Hollywood in recent years?” he asked. “The writers went on strike. They’re the ones who put the story together.”

Read differently, in relation to books, this means that the cloistered author—holed up in some wooded cabin to perfect his or her tome—has become an artifact of history. Today, cultivating and communicating with a reader base has become an essential component of building a platform and positioning oneself as viable to publishers, particularly for nonficiton. O’Reilly reported that more than 70% of literary agents advise their clients to blog at least five hours a week.

Beyond blogging, this means that the writers of the future (both fiction and nonfiction) will work with Web designers, software writers, and other professionals to create product.

The more ambitious among them will likely start the process before ever approaching an editor with a manuscript. For many young writers, and writers outside of the United States, that’s already standard practice.

Japanese novelist Yoshi became a cross-continent media sensation when a novel he had first texted into his cell phone became so popular that it went on to sell more than 2 million copies as a printed book. He’s not alone; half of Japan’s top 10 best-selling books last year started out as cell phone–based.

The good news is, you don’t have to be a Tokyo text-novelist to take advantage of technology as a writer. In a conversation last fall, Lewis Lapham, historian and long-time editor of Harper’s magazine, acknowledged that his first response to electronic media was “denunciation.” Lapham’s newest publishing venture, a journal called Lapham’s Quarterly, represents his first foray into multimedia content generation.

“The Web site is not just a translation of the journal onto the Web. They’re different. They’re different media. I’m trying to do an analogous thing, give a sense of the past. But I’m also doing a radio program with the same premise. These are separate media. There are things you can do on radio, on the Web, that you can’t do in print and vice versa.”

To Lapham, the crudeness, silliness, and uncultured quality of today’s Web culture is a symptom of the immaturity of the new medium and the youthfulness of its users. The change will be gradual. “We’re still playing with it like it’s a toy,” he said of the Web. “We don’t yet know how to make art with it. McLuhan points out that the printing press was 1468, it’s a hundred years before you get to Cervantes, to Shakespeare.” 

The Same Language

Shakespeare seems a far cry from where we are today. An unremarked consequence of our new information age—one that will influence readers, writers, and publishers in the future—is that bad writing, chat speak, text, millions of message board posts that come from and lead nowhere, are having a cheapening effect on all written content. As veteran journalist Mitchell Stephens has pointed out: “Editors and news directors today fret about the Internet as their predecessors worried about radio and TV, and all now see the huge threat the Web represents to the way they distribute their product. They have been slower to see the threat it represents to the product itself. In a day when information pours out of digital spigots, stories that package painstakingly gathered facts on current events—what happened, who said what, when—have lost much of their value.”

Consider French management professor Philip M. Parker’s recent invention of a system that can aggregate all the available information on a subject into book form in just minutes. According to the New York Times, Parker has “written” more than 200,000 such books.

The idea that the practice and craft of writing can simply retool itself for the digital age overlooks the fact that the Web is giving rise to totally unique forms of expression, a writing that is different from the kind traditionally found in books. YouTube clips, animations, and other video applications account for more than 60% of Internet traffic today. The proportion is growing rapidly.  While very little of this visual content has any monetary value (the most ad revenue a YouTube clip has made has been $25,000), there is a seemingly ceaseless supply of it, as well as numerous vehicles for distribution.

What does Web 2.0 portend for the written word itself? O’Reilly has an opinion on that, too. In addition to being a Web enthusiast, he is himself a bibliophile. He graduated from Harvard, won a grant from the National Endowment for the Arts to translate Greek fables in 1976, and later wrote a biography of Dune author Frank Herbert. He disagrees with the notion that the Internet is spurring us toward something like a postliterate age, but he acknowledges that technology inevitably changes that which it comes in contact with, including forms of communication.

“Look at Notre-Dame de Paris,” he said. “The novel is not about the hunchback so much as it is about the church, and the idea of sculpture as a way of communicating stories. In the preliterate era they told the stories through these churches.… Victor Hugo was lamenting the loss of that stone literacy, where people would look up at the church and know what it was about. Yes, something was lost. But we gained a lot. I remember a conversation I had at our open source convention with Freeman Dyson, the physicist. He said something wonderful; someone asked him what do you think about the fact that we were losing something or other, and he said, ‘We have to forget, otherwise there would be no room for new things.’ That’s an important thing to take.… Be accepting of the losses and the gains.”

 “Reading isn’t going to go away,” agreed Abram, “but it’s only one aspect. Probably, it will be some combination of reading, visual conversations, and lessons. What you’re authoring is contributing to a corpus that is significantly larger than it is now, electronically. Most of the important stuff will have been converted 20 years from now. We can convert the entire Library of Congress for $9 billion right now, which, in terms of national priorities, is only five weeks of Iraqi conflict. It’s doable. It used to be undoable. The corpus, the ability to create cultural context, is going to change the nature of how culture is expressed.”

Lapham was likewise dismissive of the notion that IT is bringing us to the brink of postliteracy, but he acknowledged that written material will likely never regain the cultural primacy it enjoyed in earlier centuries. “The written word will survive because there are things you can do with the written word that you simply cannot do with film or with radio. I don’t know if it will be a mass medium,” said Lapham. “The large majority of mankind is passive. The change comes from the active minority. Those people will continue to read. Books will continue to be read. Maybe the more popular forms of writing will be taken over by video games. But it’s up to members of your generation to teach young people how to read and what the difference is between reading literature and sifting data.”

Rushkoff sees new kinds of information systems springing to life next to writing, and sees this as part of a grand evolution in human communication. “Just because things became written down, we didn’t lose oral culture,” said Rushkoff. “Read Walter Ong [author of Orality and Literacy: The Technologizing of the Word]. We changed, but we still talk to each other, dance for each other. We do them in different situations. The written word is cool. It’s for a certain kind of thing. The more media we have to exchange, the better we understand what the biases are. The written word is abstract, contractual. It launched monotheism, ethics; it launched evolution. It was really important for a lot of things, and that will remain. But visual media will lead to other kinds of insights.”

For lovers of literary writing, who are now watching the marketplace and Internet erode the remains of nineteenth-century print culture, these assurances may not be particularly consoling. We have no choice but to accept them. Arguing against the forces of digitalization is as much a losing battle as cursing the coming of the evening tide. But before we invest ourselves too deeply in this future, consider this: If new technologies expose the biases inherent in print and text, so the converse is true as well; that the written word is uniquely suitable for revealing the myopias of our digital age. If poor old Oliver Goldsmith were alive today, he might argue that critical reading abilities, cultural literacy, and traditional literacy were never more vital than the present, when Linux writers are regarded as the modern incarnation of holy monks and the newest Facebook application is treated with the deference of an illuminated manuscript. Coding skills are highly marketable in the twenty-first century. We, as a civilization, are duty-bound to encourage technological know-how. However, before we make the mistake of convincing ourselves that a knack for writing software is more valuable than the ability to simply write well, we might consider looking anew at the souvenir that is the book. One day, computer programs—these objects of our fascination and frustration—will learn to write themselves. And we’ll be left with our ideas, however grand or shallow. #

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