A magazine of forecasts, trends, and ideas about the future
Related Interviews with:  Tim O'Reilly       Stephen Abram         Douglas Rushkoff       Frank Daniels

July-August 2008 Volume 42, No. 4

 

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Fatal Revolution

            To get a sense of how market trends are affecting publishing, it’s important to understand how those trends break from, but also mirror, those of the past. In the 1700s, when booksellers came to replace the aristocracy as the primary patrons of the literary arts in England, writers such as Henry Fielding and the Irish poet Oliver Goldsmith decried the phenomenon as a “fatal revolution.”

Fielding wrote a dramatic satire on the subject called The Author’s Farce, and Goldsmith railed ceaselessly against book merchants even as he profited by them. To wit: “You cannot but be sensible, gentlemen, that a reformation in literature was never more necessary than at the present juncture, when wit is sold by the yard, and a journeyman-author paid like a journeyman-tailor.” Goldsmith argued that, while booksellers commissioned a greater number of works than did the aristocrats, the quality of writing was deeply compromised by the process of commercialization; literature was suffering a spiritual death as a result.

Today’s fatal revolution takes the opposite form. Publishers are concerned that market forces will hurt their ability to sell carefully edited and packaged material, or compel them to relinquish editorial control to readers—essentially outsourcing their jobs to the masses. According to Sara Nelson of Publishers Weekly, giving up control will be a hard sell. “There’s a lot of snobbery in the book business,” she said. “Book publishers are used to being the people who decide what others get to read. That’s breaking down against their will.”

Recent data shows just how resistant publishers are to today’s trends. While the world of online content is expanding (more content coming from more people all the time), the world of published books is contracting. Book publishers are finding it harder to back first-time authors, authors who aren’t already famous, or even established writers who aren’t selling. In June 2007, U.S. publishers reported a 3% increase in the number of titles released for 2006, but that followed double-digit declines in titles released during 2004 and 2005. Extrapolate those numbers forward and you arrive at a future where the books that are brought to print serve not to bring new authors and ideas to the public but to commemorate the already famous in book form.

Seth Godin, marketing expert and author of Survival Is Not Enough and Free Prize Inside, contends that that future is already here. “The book is a souvenir,” he excitedly told his Monday morning audience. “Once you realize you’re in the souvenir business, you’ll play by different rules.”

To Douglas Rushkoff, best-selling author of Media Virus and Innovation from the Inside Out, the key to book publishing in the future is recognizing that readers are after more than information. They’re seeking an intellectual connection with an author and a community experience organized around an idea. Publishers have to look at what is still scarce, says Rushkoff. “While the book isn’t scarce, I’m scarce. I can only be in so many places. So there are a lot of different experiences that attend the book that [readers] should be participating in, to think about the book as a way to promote a set of ideas. How to work with those ideas is limited.”

Those attendant experiences can include lectures, classes, even parties. The more personal the experience, the more people are willing to pay for it. The book party is hardly a new invention. The trick, said Rushkoff, is to think of the books as marketing materials for the event and the author, not the event as marketing for the book. “Every time I do a big talk, I have to arm wrestle the publisher to help me sell a thousand, five thousand books to the people who want them… They want them at a discount because they want 5,000 copies. In reality, if I’m going to get $5,000 on a talk, my publisher should get half of that money and should help me administrate the talk and get books out.” Frank Daniels, COO of Ingram’s digital group, believes U.S. publishers have a bright future, but only if they think of themselves as purveyors of information packages rather than printers.

“Right now, when you say ‘book’ you’re thinking of 300 pages bound in something, delivered, and consumed in one period of time,” said Daniels. “What is the new metaphor for the book? Is it something that exists more like a TV show? That’s episodic? That’s consumed in one sitting, or later? Or is it something more like a Web site and a Web environment? You both own it and sub scribe to it? As we create a platform where editors can be creative in their thinking process, then we will truly begin to break the metaphor for the book and have an experience for our consumers that they will consume and continue to consume.”

According to Daniels, textbooks (hardly the most glamorous fiefdom in the book kingdom) actually represent the best opportunity to bring a wide variety of talents—audio creation, film, even acting—to bear on the job of publishing, leading to a variety of possible monetary transactions that can occur around a single product or “book.”

“The beauty about the Kindle,” Daniels said of Amazon’s newest handheld e-reader, “isn’t that the device is great. The device is terrible. But the buying experience is wonderful.… We want to make it so that it’s as easy to do digital stuff as it is to buy a book. As we get that done, publishers will say, ‘Yes. There is a market there. I now want to add some video and audio and create a truly different metaphor.’”

O’Reilly agrees that transcending the traditional concept of the book will be essential for publishers in the decades ahead. “A lot of people think of publishing as printing books on paper, paper between covers, those objects in bookstores,” he said. “I always thought that publishing was about, first of all, understanding what matters, figuring out how to gather information, and then gathering readers who that information matters to. There’s a kind of curation process. What the Internet has done is bring us new methods of curation,” meaning, presumably, finding publishable material and refining it. “A lot of publishers are fighting those models instead of saying ‘This is new stuff that helps us do what we do better.’”

The first step for publishers, according to O’Reilly, is to realize that the information coming from readers is as valuable as the information they give to readers in book form. The next step is to involve the reader in the publishing process.

“A really great example,” he said, “is a session here from a company called Logos Bible Software. Who would think of these guys as doing really cool stuff? They basically publish electronic editions of really obscure religious texts or scholarly texts that are used by people in religion. Would you like your Liddell and Scott’s Greek–English Lexicon online? Guess how they do it? They basically have community pricing software where they have people vote on whether or not they would buy the book.… They’re actually harnessing the community to set prices and to tell them which products to publish. That’s cutting edge.”

Stephen Abram, a past president of the Canadian Library Association, took the argument a step further.

Publishers, he said, need to “stop telling and start listening, to start working from the reader’s, the user ’s, the experiencer ’s contact in. Then they can start creating the products that actually match the behaviors of their user base. In many markets, the traditional publishing formats are misaligned with what needs to happen.”

The reading of static text is a poor substitute for a visceral experience and always has been, said Abram. Plain text sufficed because there was no alternative, no superior way to convey complex data. That’s changed. Abram argued that it’s up to publishers to pick among the available media tools—including video clips, audio files, even virtual reality—and pull them together into a package that facilitates learning, not just reading.

“Do you want your cardiac surgeon to walk into your room before he does your surgery and say, ‘I read the article last night’? No, you want him to have had a thousand experiences putting his hand in someone’s chest and know what it feels like. It should be just like an experience a car mechanic has where he can put his hand on the hood of your car and say it’s the manifold because he’s seen it, heard it, smelled it a thousand times.”

The future of the book as conjured by O’Reilly, Abram, and Daniels is one where the end-users (what used to be called “readers”) give specifications to an editor for the product they want—a combination of movie clips, animations, software applications, possibly even games functioning in a multifaceted learning product accessible across platforms.

The question becomes, who does the writing?

 

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