May-June 2008 FUTURIST article Executive Summaries

 

Draining Our Future: The Growing Shortage of Freshwater

by Lester R. Brown [president, Earth Policy Institute; author, Plan B, 3.0: Mobilizing to Save Society (W.W. Norton, 2008)]

            SUMMARY: Global demand for water has tripled in the past half century. Water is a food, energy, and political issue as well as a resource issue. Since most of the water we consume comes in the form of food (70% of water use is for agricultural irrigation), the competition for water between rural and urban areas will impact future food supplies. Moreover, as water tables fall, more energy is required to dig deeper and pump it out; meanwhile, diversion of water for hydroelectric power is draining many rivers dry. The basic strategy for solving these problems involves both stabilizing population growth to reduce demand and improving water efficiency to increase supply.

            PLUS: The Desalination Solution by McKinley Conway [engineer, founder of Conway Data Inc.], on the growing need to increase freshwater resources locally through desalination projects.

 

Bioviolence: A Growing Threat

by Barry Kellman [author of Bioviolence: Preventing Biological Terror and Crime (Cambridge University Press, 2008); director of International Weapons Control Center and professor of international law, DePaul University College of Law]

            SUMMARY: The nuclear threat has been the nightmare scenario for more than a half century, but an even more frightening possibility is the deliberate spread of fatal diseases such as Ebola, smallpox, or anthrax. Bioviolence is about the destruction of living organisms, and, unlike nuclear or even traditional bombs, its destruction can be executed quietly and anonymously, making its prevention even more challenging. As yet there is no single international authority tracking or preventing the use of bioweapons, and this "nobody-in-charge" situation could prove disastrous to humanity. The author, director of the International Weapons Control Center at DePaul University, offers several strategies, including the establishment of an international Bioviolence Prevention Office.

            PLUS: Germ Warfare Under the Microscope (interview with Jeanne Guillemin, author of Biological Weapons) on what governments should do to reduce the worldwide threat of bioviolence.

            PLUS: Nanopollution: The Invisible Fog of Future Wars by research scientists Antonietta Gatti [Laboratory of Biomaterials of the University of Modena and Reggio Emilia] and Stefano Montanari [Nanodiagnostics], on the environmental and health impacts of nanodust resulting from the use of high-tech weaponry.

 

Discovering the Future

by Paul Crabtree [retired U.S. government analyst, policy adviser, and information resources manager]

            SUMMARY: The author of future-oriented fiction works like The Time Machine and nonfiction works like Anticipations was uniquely able to draw trends together from across a spectrum of human activity and imagine scenarios that are both vivid and plausible. And uncannily accurate. What were the building blocks of Wells's predictive technique? He explained the basic principles behind his methodology in an address to the Royal Society in 1902:

(1) a "clockwork universe" assumption (cause and effect);
(2) inductive thinking (building up understanding of the past to infer the future);
(3) law of large numbers (use of statistical probabilities);
(4) science as predictive discipline (expanding and joining together predictions of science from the various disciplines);
(5) future-oriented mind-set (understanding the past does not mean assuming the past will continue unchanged);
(6) change drivers (the assumption that scientific and technological progress is inexorable);
(7) disciplined web of implications (imagining plausible details is nearly impossible but vital to creating successful future-oriented scenarios, whether fiction or nonfiction.  

Trends Shaping Tomorrow's World: Forecasts and Implications for Business, Government, and Consumers (Part Two) by Marvin J. Cetron [president, Forecasting International Ltd.] and Owen Davies [science writer and researcher]

            SUMMARY: This special report (second of two parts) updates the major trends that have been tracked in a four-decade research project by Forecasting International. Trends covered in part 2 include the ongoing dominant role that technological change plays in the economy and society; the continuing rapid growth of the service sector; the disappearance of "retirement," or at least a meaningful "retirement age"; the growth of entrepreneurialism; the loss of multiple management levels; and the growing risk of exposure to terrorism among increasingly international organizations. The authors summarize the implications of each trend.