Special Report: Wild Cards in Our Future

A Wild Card Sampler

An overview of commonly cited wild cards offers a gloomy view of the future, with a few positive possibilities.

By Brian Pomeroy

In response to the query about potential "wild card" future events, I have mulled a few over and have come up with the usual grim list (pandemics, terror attacks, natural disasters, oil prices, wars, etc.). Because they've been considered before, they're not really true wild cards, but here are a few that truly stand out in my mind:

• A catastrophic weather event rivaling or surpassing Hurricane Katrina. In addition to the widespread death, destruction, and disruption that such an event would cause, it would refocus attention on climate change, perhaps enabling even more assertive steps to combat global warming.

• A dramatic political shift to the far left. Since the 2008 U.S. presidential election, pundits have been debating whether the United States is shifting leftward or remaining a "center-right" nation. With the economic climate remaining sour, combined with the new priorities of the Obama administration, many conservative policies are being tossed overboard at a stunningly rapid rate. The riots in Europe in late 2008 illustrate how economic and political unrest is going global. If the worldwide economy remains weak, we may see a leftward shift in global politics so dramatic that socialism or even communism becomes attractive (especially to a generation too young to remember the Soviet Union and the Cold War).

Of course, a massive shift to the right is possible as well, especially if Obama and liberal policies are perceived as having failed to arrest the current economic crisis.

• Political upheaval in China. The weakening economy may cause the political system in China to buckle, ushering in upheaval and chaos that could further destabilize the global economy. Likewise, falling energy prices could cause flashpoints in Russia and the Middle East that would demand U.S. intervention, including military options.

• A worldwide backlash against fundamentalist religions. Not that this would be an anti-religious movement, but believers will choose spiritual paths that would better reconcile faith with science and reason. A backlash would also signal a rejection of terror, repression and the other hallmarks of extreme religious and political movements.

• Widespread illness and death from tainted food (either accidental or deliberate). Health concerns over pet foods, produce, and peanut butter may only be a preview of coming threats to the global food supply. With so much food produced in centralized facilities and with lax oversight, pandemic-level sickness and death from food poisoning is always a risk. Such a disaster would force a top-to-bottom review of the food supply chain, revolutionize our dietary habits (reorienting us toward vegetarianism or home-grown produce), or even cause mass starvation in areas where food is scarce. [Ed. note: See also “The Disappearance of Food: The Next Global Wild Card?” by John Rockefeller.]

• A surprisingly rapid economic recovery. The experts tell us that the United States may be mired in recession for many months, perhaps years. However, the economy could reignite more rapidly than forecast, due to government stimulus, market forces, or some unforeseen event. While surely a positive development, this wild card invites speculation over the recovery’s political impacts and the potential loss of the recession’s silver-lining benefits, such as greater social awareness and sustainable living.

• The disabling of the Internet. This could happen either for technical reasons (a virus that crashes virtually every node on the network) or by human intervention (a powerful individual or group effectively shutting it down). In our increasingly wired society, losing the Internet would be catastrophic on many levels—from the economic and social to the individual and psychological. More likely might be a subtle but widespread rejection of Internet use by those who feel it has become too intrusive in their daily lives.

• A disruptive new business model on the scale of the Web when it emerged in the mid-1990s. Such a model may or may not be technology-driven, but it would generate an economic boom as well as upheaval as it challenged and destroyed established industries, reweaving the fabric of our daily lives.

• The incapacitation of President Obama, through scandal, illness, or assassination. This is by far the most frightening wild card, because Americans (and much of the rest of the world) have hung so much hope on one man at a critical time. A scandal would disillusion a generation of voters, who might never become politically active again. An assassination would tear the nation apart, causing an eruption of grief and anger that would dwarf anything we have ever experienced.

About the Author

Brian Pomeroy is senior solutions consultant, Web Center–Information Systems, at the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. E-mail pomeroy@email.chop.edu .