CHINA'S ECONOMY TO SURPASS U.S.
The growth of the Chinese economy over the
past several years is "no flash in the pan," according to a new report from
the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. It will surpass the U.S.
economy by 2035 and double by mid-century.
Driven by increasing domestic demand rather
than by exports, the Chinese economy will be less susceptible to global
discontinuities, according to the report, "China's Rise—Fact and Fiction,"
by economist Albert Keidel. The Chinese government has also facilitated
economic growth by financing infrastructure and making other public
investments.
The prospect of a China that is more
economically powerful than the United States will have military
implications, Keidel warns. Though China's military is currently only a
fraction of the size of the U.S. military, policy makers should begin
planning today for a very different world in 50 years, the report concludes.
SOURCE:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
DOWNLOAD
"China's Economic Rise—Fact and Fiction"
EUROPEAN WATER WASTERS
A recent poll of western Europeans' shower
habits reveals not only wastefulness but also a lack of concern for the
gels, shampoos, and other contaminants draining into water systems.
Britons are particularly self-indulgent
showerers, with 12% reportedly lingering for 11 to 20 minutes. And of
British men surveyed, only 35% say they think about the contaminants,
compared with nearly two-thirds of Spanish women saying they care about the
stuff going down the drain.
Most European adults shower between two and
five minutes, according to the survey by Ipsos MORI for the Royal Society of
Chemistry.
"We have to take on board the critical
message that water is a precious resource and in the years to come it is
going to become increasingly scarce," says Richard Pike, RSC chief
executive. "We can save water massively by using less when washing, without
compromising hygiene. One should be able to shower thoroughly within a
couple of minutes."
SOURCE:
Royal Society of Chemistry
|
CONFERENCE INFORMATION
CENTRAL
WorldFuture 2008: Seeing the Future
Through New Eyes will bring together a thousand different perspectives to
Washington, D.C., July 26-28.
HOTEL: Hilton Washington, 1919
Connecticut Avenue, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20009. Telephone: 1-202-483-3000
TIP: The hotel entrance is on T
Street and is about halfway between the Woodley Park-Zoo/Adams Morgan and
Dupont Circle (Q Street) Metro stops on the Red line. The walk to the hotel
is a little longer from Woodley Park, but it’s downhill.
LEARN MORE
|
MORE RESEARCH, LESS KNOWLEDGE?
New research about research shows that,
despite growing access to scholarly papers online, fewer publications are
being cited. The result could be a shallower marketplace of ideas.
University of Chicago sociology professor
James Evans reports that the Internet gives researchers instant access to a
wealth of information in academic journals, but most citations are limited
to more-recent articles appearing in the most-prominent journals. The result
may be that only a few new ideas get picked up and others fade away before
they are properly evaluated.
Online search tools like Google factor in
the frequency of hits on individual sites, putting the most-popular pages at
the top of search results. Searchers who hit those sites and include the
links in their own research thus perpetuate their popularity.
“With science and scholarship increasing
online, findings and ideas that don’t receive attention very soon will be
forgotten more quickly than ever before,” warns Evans.
SOURCE:
National Science Foundation
CLICK OF THE MONTH:
FAUXTOGRAPHY
http://www.snopes.com/photos/photos.asp
Many information-age skeptics are already
familiar with the popular myth-busting site Snopes.com. We bring your
attention now to a special section of Snopes devoted to verifying the
veracity of images that may or may not have been altered.
“Numerous photographs and videos circulate
on the Internet. Some are real. Some are fake. Some are real but have been
given false backstories,” according to the site. Fauxtography offers proof
(or disproof) for well-circulated images ranging from spectacular traffic
accidents to astonishing natural phenomena, such as
elaborately striped icebergs.
Photographs about public figures or events
are especially worth cautious observation. For instance, former U.S.
presidential candidate John Kerry was “seen” twice with political activist
and actress Jane Fonda: Sitting at a 1970 antiwar rally (true) and sharing a
podium at another rally (false).
Comment: As image and audio editing
technologies become easier for more people to use, whether for their own
entertainment or to manipulate public perceptions, truth becomes
increasingly elusive. Visual information flows fast, so we need to take time
for critical thinking.
NEWS FROM
THE FUTURIST COMMUNITY
* TWIN OAKS
FOUNDER DIES: Kat Kinkade, the founder of Twin Oaks and several other
secular, egalitarian, intentional communities, passed away peacefully after
a long battle with cancer and was laid to rest on July 4 in the Twin Oaks
cemetery. She was 77.
“I'm grateful that
I was fortunate enough to have had the opportunity to get to know her over
the past few years, and I remember her with fondness and respect,” says
FUTURIST editorial assistant Aaron M. Cohen. “She was an amazing woman, to
say the least. A true visionary and pioneering spirit—and the primary
architect of what is now, after 41 years, the oldest and arguably the most
successful secular communal living experiment in U.S. history.”
DETAILS:
Twin Oaks
* BILLIONAIRE, PHILANTHROPIST, INVESTOR
IN IDEAS: Sir John Templeton, founder of the Templeton Growth Fund and
the Templeton Prize for Progress in Religion, died of pneumonia in the
Bahamas. He was 95 years old. The Templeton Prize honors achievements that
advance human understanding of the spiritual domain, fearlessly exploring
“big questions” like whether science makes belief in God obsolete. The prize
has been awarded to individuals ranging from Mother Teresa to physicist
Freeman Dyson. DETAILS:
John Templeton Foundation
* “BRIC” TOUR, PART 3: Having
already visited China and India, Social Technologies is preparing for the
third leg of its Futures Expedition through the BRIC countries—Brazil,
Russia, India, and China. The expedition to Moscow will be September 25-30,
and will explore trends in the robust, petro-dollar-fueled “New Russia.”
DETAILS:
Social Technologies or contact
Natalie Ambrose, leader, Futures Expeditions.
* FUTURE ORGANIZATIONS, FOOD CRISIS:
The Tomorrow Network is hosting two special events in London this fall. “The
Future of Organisations,” on September 8, examines the forces that will
change tomorrow’s institutions and in what directions they may evolve. “The
Future of the Food Crisis,” November 25, features speakers from Oxfam and
Chatham House discussing the current food prices crisis. For more
information or to join the Tomorrow Network (free), contact:
Richard Worsley, director, the Tomorrow Project, or visit
here.
* 2008 STATE OF THE FUTURE: The
annual report of the Millennium Project will be available in August and is
already generating positive buzz. An overview of the report’s findings
appeared in the July 13 edition of THE INDEPENDENT, “We
Have Seen the Future—And We May Not Be Doomed.” The report comprises a
softcover overview and a CD-ROM containing approximately 6,300 pages of
research and analysis. DETAILS: Jerome C. Glenn, director,
the Millennium Project, World Federation of UN Associations.
* ANTICIPATING FUTURE SCHOOLS:
Sociologist and educator Arthur Shostak’s 33rd book will be published in
September by
Rowman & Littlefield. ANTICIPATE THE
SCHOOL YOU WANT: FUTURIZING K-12 EDUCATION focuses attention on what Shostak
calls “the” critical weakness of contemporary public education: its neglect
of providing young people with vital futuring skills. The book offers “an
affordable, pragmatic, and user-friendly program of school reform—one likely
to appeal to students, parents, teachers, and educational administrators
alike,” he says.
DETAILS and PRE-ORDER
FUTURIST UPDATE: News &
Previews from the World Future Society is an e-mail newsletter published
monthly as a supplement to THE FUTURIST magazine. Copyright © 2008,
World Future Society, 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450, Bethesda, MD
20814, USA. Telephone 1-301-656-8274; e-mail
mailto: info@wfs.org ; Web
site http://www.wfs.org .
Editor: Cindy Wagner,
mailto:cwagner@wfs.org
Senior Editor: Patrick
Tucker, mailto:ptucker@wfs.org
Network Administrator: Jeff
Cornish, mailto:jcornish@wfs.org
Vice President,
Membership/Conference Operations: Susan Echard,
mailto: sechard@wfs.org
To subscribe, enter your
e-mail at
http://www.wfs.org/futuristupdate.htm
To unsubscribe or change
your e-mail address, send an e-mail to
jcornish@wfs.org with "unsubscribe" or "change
address" in the subject line.
Submit feedback: to
cwagner@wfs.org
The WORLD FUTURE SOCIETY is
a nonprofit, nonpartisan scientific and educational association with a
global membership. Regular membership in the Society, including a
subscription to THE FUTURIST, is $49 per year, or $20 for full-time students
under age 25. Professional and Institutional membership programs are also
offered; contact Society headquarters for details:
http://www.wfs.org.
