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Visit Other Web Forums Emerging Technologies: So What? Policies for Resolving the Global Crisis of Maturity By William E. Halal   NOTICE: Essays and comments posted on World Future Society Web Forums are the intellectual property of the authors, who retain full responsibility for and rights to their content. For permission to publish, distribute copies, use excerpts, etc., please contact the author. As technological development surges, the ability of institutions to handle change is stifled by outmoded social systems. To survive the technological revolution in the midst of global crisis, a social revolution is also needed that will bring institutions and civilization to a higher stage of maturity. This essay reflects on the latest findings of the TechCast Project, a long-term Delphi survey of prospective technological developments and their impacts. Longitudinal Study of Forecasts It’s clear now that a technology revolution is under way as ever more sophisticated information systems create unprecedented gains in knowledge, leading to breakthroughs everywhere. The latest forecasts from the TechCast Project are presented here to show that modern societies can realistically envision renewable energy replacing oil, medical control over the genetic process of life, computer power becoming cheap and infinite, mobile communications at lightning speeds, robots serving as helpers and caregivers, and much more to come. Forecasters and futurists are especially excited over the accelerating pace of this progress; the unique power of the infotech, biotech, and nanotech fields; and artificial intelligence becoming good enough to spread smart machines throughout the nooks and crannies of life. The buzz over this wave of breakthroughs is growing at such a fevered pace, however, that it also presents the normal extravagant claims and the inevitable unforeseen consequences. Corn-based ethanol looked so promising that the U.S. Congress supported the industry with tax breaks—only to create a global food crisis while actually harming the environment and raising energy costs. Some claims are so grandiose that they seem reminiscent of the dot-com boom. The Singularity and transhumanist movements, for instance, expect to achieve immortality through nanotech medicine, to upload and download the mind, and to see humans eclipsed by intelligent machines. Pioneering computer scientist Vernor Vinge has said that intelligent machines “would use [people] the way we’ve used oxen and donkeys.” Is it possible to sort out exaggerations from realistic forecasts? Previous claims of the “paperless office,” “nuclear energy too cheap to meter,” and “excessive leisure with nothing to do” come to mind. This article presents an authoritative forecast of technology breakthroughs, showing that relentless advances are driving a creative transformation of business, society, the global order, and even what it means to be human. First I briefly outline the TechCast research method, which pools the knowledge of 100 experts online. Then I integrate the forecasts into longitudinal scenarios that “macro-forecast” the most likely path civilization will follow over the next 20 years—a virtual trip through time. The major conclusion from this analysis is that the world is facing a global crisis of maturity, the most salient example being the near-collapse of the global banking system in October 2008. Warnings of massive transformations have been anticipated for decades by the Club of Rome and many others. Today, however, the acceleration of change seems to be producing a mounting series of severe global disruptions—energy shortages as oil supplies peak, impending climate change and environmental decline in general, spreading of weapons of mass destruction, continuing terrorism, and other yet unforeseen threats as globalization inexorably strains old systems to the breaking point. Threats of this magnitude are hard to grasp within existing worldviews, so I draw on previous studies to suggest that the crisis of maturity can be best understood as part of a “life cycle of evolution.” The path of global development has been driven by successive waves of increasingly powerful technology frontiers—agriculture, mass production, services, information, and now knowledge. This broader analysis reveals a life cycle of the entire planet, similar to but vastly larger than the life cycle of all organisms, culminating in a phase of maturity that transcends early stages. From this perspective, the world seems poised at the cusp of a great discontinuity, much like the life of a teenager when thrust into the passage to adulthood. As with a teen, common sense is not very useful because the world is likely to change abruptly and dramatically. As I hope to show, the tantalizing prospect of global maturity offers bold ideas and thought-provoking policies for making a historic passage to a world that works. Hardly a perfect world, of course, but a functioning global order. A Virtual Trip through Time The TechCast Project at George Washington University has developed a sophisticated Web site (www.TechCast.org) that surveys 100 high-tech executives, scientists and engineers, academics, consultants, futurists, and other experts around the world to forecast breakthroughs in all fields of science and technology.       Think of it as an online research system, a scientific version of Wikipedia, social networks, and endless other participative Web 2.0 sites that are raising global awareness dramatically. Our studies show that technological advances, their adoption patterns, and social impacts follow well-defined cycles that can be forecast rather accurately. The TechCast Project strives to be the most complete forecasting system available, covering the entire span of technological innovation and updated constantly. Figure 1 summarizes the results, showing forecasts for roughly 70 technologies organized into seven fields identified by the site’s color code. The broader social and policy implications will be discussed in a moment, but first let’s define the longitudinal scenarios noted in Figure 1 to highlight how these dramatic advances are likely to transform our lives. Although scenarios are most commonly used to pose alternative situations, here I use a sequence of scenarios to define the most likely path ahead. The crucial point is that the world is heading toward what we define as a global crisis of maturity. Technology is creating an electronically unified world that is largely industrialized but that also faces unprecedented challenges in energy, climate change, the environment, weapons of mass destruction, terrorism, and other threats that require sophisticated responses unimaginable by present standards. World GDP should double by 2020 and almost quadruple by 2030, producing commensurate increases in all of the threats noted above. In global power politics, the system of MAD (mutually assured destruction) that successfully restrained the United States and Soviet Union from unleashing their nuclear arsenals is unlikely to hold up with a dozen or more nations going nuclear. And a way has yet to be found to block the destructive power of terrorism. This megacrisis seems insurmountable because the present world order is not sustainable. Some new form of global order is needed to avert disaster. There’s no assurance we will make such a transition, of course, but it is reasonable to hope for some sort of successful passage in a decade or so. Box 2 defines three possible paths through the crisis of maturity: “Pessimistic,” “Optimistic,” and “Most Likely.” Although “paths” are similar to scenarios, scenarios differ in representing one possible outcome. Paths define an entire string of outcomes as evolution unfolds. Unless one thinks civilization is far more likely to collapse, this analysis suggests there’s a good chance of making passage to the other side, possibly soon and in good shape. This is also supported by TechCast data and current trends. Scenarios for the Technology Revolution Let’s now do a little macro-forecasting to outline how the world is likely to evolve decade by decade over the foreseeable future. Three longitudinal scenarios are presented below to explain how this natural cycle of the planet is likely to pass through the crisis of maturity. We don’t hope to get the details right, of course, and there is a margin of uncertainty surrounding each forecast. But I think these scenarios identify the dominant themes of each period and thereby lay a pretty solid foundation for understanding the emerging global order. • Scenario 2010: The World Online. The waning first decade of the twenty-first century should continue to see powerful advances in information systems and e-commerce. The cluster of white and yellow bubbles surrounding 2010 in Figure 1 show that the world is almost certain to be smarter, faster, and fully wired, setting the stage for the breakthroughs to come. About 2014, for example, it should be common for most people around the world to interact via intelligent PCs, the Internet, TV, smart phones, and global media, translated automatically. Even with the turmoil that is sure to follow, this will mark the serious beginning of a unified global intelligence, what some have forecast as the emergence of a “global brain”—a fine web of conscious thought directing life on the planet. • Scenario 2020: High Tech Arrives. This decisive period should see major technological breakthroughs. The forecasts in Figure 1 show that green business, alternative energy, and other ecological practices are likely to foster sustainability. Good artificial intelligence should begin to permeate life, and the next generation of quantum, optical, and biological computing will permit huge advances in telemedicine, virtual education, and e-government. Biotech should provide personalized medicine, genetic therapy, cancer cures, and other advanced health care. Although technological powers will be vast and progress will likely be made, the normal level of social resistance and political stalemate is likely to oppose change. Thus, it may take an occasional environmental collapse, global wars and terrorism, or yet unknown calamities to force the move to global consciousness. Industrialization will reach most developing nations at this point, with as many as 5 billion people living at modern levels of consumption toward the end of the decade, escalating all the crises we have focused on by a factor of threefold to fourfold, possibly even fivefold. About this very time when the planet teeters between calamity and salvation, the TechCast Project forecasts also suggest that routine human thought should increasingly be automated by far more sophisticated IT networks, a second generation of more powerful computers, smart robots that think and talk, and other forms of artificial intelligence that approach human skills. For example, the advent of GPS navigation systems means that the problem of getting from point A to point B has been solved. The Information Age should mature by about 2020, leading to an era focusing our attention beyond knowledge. As even better machine intelligence takes over common mental tasks, we will move up another level on the evolutionary hierarchy to address the global challenges that seem overwhelming. In the years ahead, artificial intelligence is likely to automate routine knowledge work, relieving us of the details, so global attention will shift to seriously address the global crisis of maturity. • Scenario 2030: Global Consciousness. Advances in information technology pave the way for an emerging global consciousness, which rises mainly out of the necessity to tackle this global crisis of maturity. It’s impossible to really grasp the reality of a different era, but something like a global consciousness is likely to emerge, focusing on higher-level understanding, productive compromise, and on working out together the tough existential choices needed to survive. It might be called a “Global Era,” “Unified World,” “Global Community,” etc. Whatever the terms, the fact is that strategic planning, dialogue, collaborative problem-solving, diplomacy, conflict resolution, ceremonies, mediation, prayer, and other yet unknown “technologies of consciousness” may offer the next logical step in this evolutionary process. As General David Petraeus explained to the Washington Post about gaining the support of 70,000 Sunni leaders in Iraq: “We cannot kill our way to victory. Tribal engagement and local reconciliation work.” Likewise, averting an ecological calamity will require agreement among nations to curb climate change, to collaborate on developing advanced energy technologies, and to become responsible stewards of nature. These are heroic challenges requiring existential courage and enlightened self-interest beyond what is normally possible. North Korea, Iraq, and Iran show that containing nuclear proliferation and terrorism cannot be achieved with military force alone, but will require collaboration to bring radical states into the modern world where conflict is transcended. The development of new approaches for such conflict resolution may be viewed as advanced social technologies, as Futuring author Edward Cornish has termed them. Things look especially bleak because that’s the normal situation facing any system struggling through maturity—a teenager, a nation, or an entire civilization. It’s obvious that global consciousness seems foolhardy in a world that celebrates today’s culture of ruthless capitalism, power politics, money, glamour, consumerism, and “me.” The 2008 financial crisis, however, is widely understood to mark an end to that era, and the outpouring of support around the world for the Obama presidency signals the possibility of global unity. Beneath the surface, deep rivers of fresh thought are bubbling up. In his latest book, The Way We’ll Be, professional pollster John Zogby has analyzed his data over the past 20 years to conclude that “we are in the midst of a fundamental reorientation of the American character … away from wanton consumption and toward a new global citizenry in an age of limited resources.” It is especially noteworthy that young people lead in embracing this global view, despite the common image of disheveled youngsters oblivious to all but their cell phones and iPods. Zogby finds that young adults 18 to 29 years old constitute the “First Globals.” This “digital generation” accepts all races, sexual orientations, national cultures, and other differences equally, and they are intent on living sustainable lives in a unified world. Other prescient voices are advocating global unity. Strobe Talbott—former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, deputy secretary of state in the Clinton administration, and now president of the Brookings Institution—thinks global governance is coming. In his recent book, The Great Experiment, he writes, “Individual states will increasingly see it in their interest to form an international system.” And the Millennium Project’s 2008 State of the Future notes: “Ours is the first generation with the means for many to know the world as a whole … and seek to improve global systems.… This does not mean world government; it means world governance.” Today’s emerging global order seems to possess a life cycle all its own that is unfolding rapidly, provoking a series of mental shifts to address this crisis. The obstacles are enormous, but it is precisely because so many people are so deeply concerned that a change in consciousness is under way. We have accepted women in power, transformed planned economies into free markets, and begun to protect the environment. The tough challenge of shaping global consciousness lies ahead. Implications for Business and Government Obviously, things are not likely to work out so neatly, but that’s beside the point. This mental exercise of virtual time travel through progressive longitudinal scenarios is not intended to get the details right but to grasp the trajectory of technology in advancing civilization through higher levels of development. The specific facts can’t be known, but the broad arc of this path through a crisis of maturity and its resolution is rather clearly marked. I realize this runs counter to much prevailing pessimism; however, Arthur C. Clarke noted that a failure of imagination can easily obscure our vision, and a lack of courage can prevent accepting new realities that are quite apparent. At this point, readers are asked to make a shift in consciousness themselves. The previous discussion focused on a science-based, objective view in order to forecast how the crisis is likely to be resolved. While this may be accurate in the abstract, countless people must take very difficult actions based on commitment, values, and tough choices at the personal level to make forecasts a reality. From this personal or strategic view, we now address what can be done to avert calamity and encourage successful passage through the crisis of maturity. Here’s my best thinking about the policy implications for energy and the environment, business, government, and health care. Solving the Energy and Environment Crisis Despite the present mess in energy and environment policy, there is great opportunity for sustainable, unifying growth. The financial crisis of 2008 is likely to leave a long and painful legacy, but this downturn could draw entrepreneurs and governments to direct unused labor, capital, and knowledge toward the crucial challenge of sustainability and even pull the global economy out of recession. Not only is the energy and environment issue an opportunity in disguise, but also the intertwined problems facing corporations and governments encourage the type of collaboration badly needed today. There is a unifying purpose to serving this higher calling of protecting the Earth, and the prospects are so great that they justify a Green Manhattan Project. Figure 1 shows that we expect business to create an economic boom as green practices move into the mainstream over the next five years or so. The decade of the 2010s should prove critical to address global warming, which would also help in the transition to alternative energy by about 2020. These forecasts suggest the move to sustainability is beginning, and we have a rough timetable of how and when it will occur, although with the normal level of doubt that accompanies historic change. Modern economies are adapting to new realities with a wave of innovative energy sources, many tucked into the interstices of society: hybrid cars, solar panels on roofs, windmills on a farm, ethanol plants in Iowa, and nuclear power plants where they are wanted. Sustainable practices promise to become one of the most crucial sectors of the economy. In Earth in the Balance, Al Gore noted that pollution control was a $500 billion market in 2000 and is expected to reach $10 trillion in 2020, larger than auto, health care, and defense. The U.S. government could invite major corporations and other governments to work together on improving environmental management, alternative energy, and other sustainable technologies. These same groups should agree on a system of carbon taxes or caps to internalize the costs of producing greenhouse gases and allow the market to solve environmental problems more efficiently. We also need to encourage innovative solutions, like sequestering carbon dioxide, planting trees, and using industrial ecology. With hard work and good leadership, the world could realize the benefits of ecologically safe living during the next 10 to 20 years. A rising interest in protecting the environment is starting to integrate industries, energy systems, farming, homes, and offices into a living tapestry that sustains life. Authors Paul Hawken, Amory Lovins, and L. Hunter Lovins call it a “natural capitalism,” in which the environment is recognized as a valuable asset that produces $33 trillion of economic benefits annually. The challenges are enormous but are being resolved, and the path ahead is fairly clear. Now we need to improve the technology, implement it widely, and find the political will. Shifting the Structures of Society One of the great dilemmas posed by the crisis of maturity is to reform institutions for this different world. Trends noted in my book, Technology’s Promise, suggest possibilities for transforming social institutions using a combination of enterprise and community. For example, that’s how the United States might improve health care and relieve its mounting costs, which are approaching 20% of GDP. While the political right argues for letting the free market solve the complex dilemma and the political left wants a government-paid system, a solution seems to be emerging that synthesizes government support and market forces. Here is a quick outline of the new consensus on U.S. health care: • Universal insurance coverage. The federal government would require all to have basic health-care insurance, and it might organize “exchanges” through which people can select among competing plans. The poor would be offered free vouchers good for basic health coverage, while the rich may be able to opt out by being self-insured. • Employers relieved of responsibility. Corporations and other employers would be freed of the responsibility for health care. Business could then become more competitive by avoiding the $500 billion they now spent annually on health insurance. • Providers evaluated on results. One of the great flaws in the present system is that there is little or no information to help make sound decisions. But plans are under way to require hospitals and physicians to be evaluated for providing results. Patients could then make wiser choices and thereby allow market forces to improve the system. • Minimal added cost or bureaucracy. This solution would simply shift costs from employers to individuals, resulting in little added cost or federal programs. The costs of vouchers for the poor could be offset by higher tax revenue as corporations are better able to drive robust growth and as market forces improve efficiency of the entire system. The West Should Fight Terrorism While Encouraging Islamic Development I am of Arabic descent (Lebanese Christian), so I know something about the crisis in the Middle East. A reasonable solution to quelling terrorism requires two major programs that support one another—improve world wide efforts to stop terrorists while also supporting the economic development of Moslem nations. It remains paramount to seek out terrorists using all intelligence possible and bring them to justice. Calling this a “war” unduly inflames reactions, however, so we should instead strengthen police efforts and improve coordination around the world. Support from indigenous Moslems will be crucial for success, which leads to the second part of this strategy. The root cause of Islamic terrorism is that this is an ancient, distinguished civilization in decline and it badly needs to rejuvenate itself for a new world. The West could play a useful role by supporting the economic/social development of Moslem nations. Economic alliances, capital investment by Western corporations, favorable trade agreements, and even monetary subsidies come to mind.  Middle East terrorism follows a long tradition of revolutionary movements fomented by the felt need for social justice, as seen in the Black Panthers, the IRA, the fight to create Israel, and even the U.S. War of Independence. Modern terrorism is hideous, but peace in the Middle East will come by assisting Muslims in improving themselves as they think best while also holding them accountable for violence. Rogue nations like Iran present different problems, of course, and nobody thinks this will be without formidable costs and even failures. The West is being challenged to redefine its institutions to survive the crisis of maturity, and so too is the Middle East challenged to redefine its institutions. Time to Grow Up or Perish Technological, economic, and political projections make it clear that the world must mature if it is to survive. The crisis of maturity may not prove catastrophic if acted on in time, but a major turning point seems inevitable as the multiple threats of worldwide industrialization, energy shortages, climate change, environment collapse, nuclear holocaust, spreading terrorism, global conflict, and other unknown crises reach critical levels about 2020. The transition could happen anytime, but it is hard to conceive of a future in which today’s systems could survive much beyond 2020, let alone 2030. This may seem too heroic, but recall our discussion of how technological evolution drives a life cycle of the planet, much like the life cycle of any organism but infinitely larger. Whether a teenager shedding the baggage of youth to become a responsible adult or a civilization facing the crisis of maturity, the imperative is much the same: Grow up or perish. One case that bears scrutiny is General Motors. After losing its dominance of auto markets steadily over the past 30 years to Toyota, GM engineers rallied around the goal of introducing the world’s first plug-in hybrid car with advanced lithium-ion batteries. GM could still fail, obviously, but Maryann Keller, a long-time analyst of the company, thinks it’s “a generational change.” Historic transitions on the scale of the technology revolution are hard to grasp because they lead to a more sophisticated way of life that has never existed before. Understanding the evolutionary forces at work—both in hard technologies and in social systems—helps us see that the world is undergoing a natural process of maturity, with global intelligence and awareness increasing dramatically. Our great challenge now is to assure that social institutions evolve and mature along with the material technologies. It will be necessary to replace today’s cumbersome social systems, religious dogmas, heated emotions, partisan ideologies, and other commonly outmoded forms of thought and consciousness that now form the major obstacles to progress. The TechCast Project’s Research Method The TechCast Project’s scientific approach is empirical in nature, gathering the best background data available and organizing it into a careful analysis of each technology. Experts are taken through these analyses online and instructed to estimate the most likely year when each technology will enter mainstream use, the potential size of the economic market when it matures, and their confidence in the forecast. To keep the analysis honest, TechCast includes opposing trends that hinder technology, such as political obstacles, social resistance, or other barriers. More than snapshots in time, the technology forecasts are a continuous tracking process that improves as technologies arrive. Comments from the experts and new data are also used to update the analyses periodically. The project has used this method for 15 years, and the average variance of all forecasts is plus or minus three years. Some technologies vary widely because they are controversial, while others show little variance because they are well understood. We have also recorded arrivals of several technologies roughly within this error band of three years. The results are more compelling when considering the fact that the expert panel changed over this time, as did the prospects for various technologies and other conditions. “Prediction markets” have demonstrated remarkable accuracy recently using the same method, according to the Journal of Economic Perspectives. It is often thought that methods like this are subjective, whereas quantitative methods are precise. However, quantitative methods also involve uncertainty because they require underlying assumptions that often are doubtful. This approach subsumes quantitative forecasts into the background data and allows the judgment of experts to resolve the uncertainty that remains. Experts may have their own bias, naturally, but it is usually distributed normally, washing out in the aggregate results. If the present level of uncertainty is defined as 100%, we have found that this process reduces uncertainty to about 20%–30%. Good enough to get you in the right ballpark.  Alternative Paths through the Crisis of Maturity • Pessimistic. If the world reacts slowly or half-heartedly, the result will likely prove disastrous. Climate change could destroy life as we know it, energy shortages would render societies impotent, ecological systems might collapse, and declining law and order could encourage war, crime, and other conflict. While this is a serious possibility, trends presented a bit later will show that change is occurring and could easily accelerate. Ultimately, pessimism is not a viable option but a failure of civilization, and muddling through is not likely. The TechCast Project rates the probability of this path at 20%–30%. • Optimistic. Conversely, if the world were to react quickly and strongly, this transition could be made smoothly in a decade or two. In this happy state of affairs, serious energy shortages, climate change, eruptions of global conflict through WMD, etc., are largely avoided, and the world enters global maturity unscathed about 2020–2030. This is comparable to Al Gore’s proposals for energy and climate change. Given the enormity of the challenges and the natural inclination to procrastinate, TechCast rates this alternative as quite unlikely, about 10%–20% probability or less. • Most Likely. With a 20%–30% probability of global disaster and a 10%–20% probability of a smooth transition, the remaining 50%–80% describes the “Most Likely Path” forward. Action may start slowly in this case, but the threats are so massive that they spur continued efforts, and far more powerful technical capabilities are available. The sense of urgency builds as threats increase, pushing humanity to find solutions, as we are struggling to do even now. There may be minor disasters along the way but little that is catastrophic, making the transition in the nick of time at about 2030. About the Author William E. Halal is professor emeritus of science, technology, and innovation at George Washington University, Washington, D.C., co-founder of the Institute for Knowledge & Innovation, and President of TechCast LLC. He may be contacted at Halal@gwu.edu. Portions of this article are adapted from his book Technology’s Promise: Expert Knowledge on the Transformation of Business and Society (Palgrave Macmillan, 2008). The author gratefully acknowledges the constructive critiques of Evan Faber, a graduate student in the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University. For Further Reading • Jerome C. Glenn, Theodore J. Gordon, and Elizabeth Florescu, 2008 State of the Future (Millennium Project/World Federation of UN Associations, 2008). • William E. Halal, “The Life Cycle of Evolution: A Macro-Technological Analysis of Civilization’s Progress,” Journal of Future Studies (August 2004) Vol. 9, No. 1, pp. 59-74. • William E. Halal, Technology’s Promise: Expert Knowledge on the Transformation of Business and Society (Palgrave Macmillan, 2008). • Paul Hawken, Amory Lovins, and L. Hunter Lovins, Natural Capitalism: Creating the Next Industrial Revolution (Little, Brown and Company, 1999). • Strobe Talbott, The Great Experiment: The Story of Ancient Empires, Modern States, and the Quest for a Global Nation (Simon & Schuster, 2008). • John Zogby, The Way We’ll Be: A Zogby Report on the Transformation of the American Dream (Random House, 2008).