ECONOMIC REBOUND FORECAST FOR 2010
The
members of the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) see a
sharp decline in economic activity throughout the first quarter of this year
with continued contraction in the United States through second quarter and a
virtually flat third and fourth quarter. The result will be a net decline of
0.9% in GDP for 2009, according to the February Outlook survey.
"The
good news is that economic activity is expected to turn up in the second
half of the year and 2010 is expected to see modestly above-trend growth of
3.1%” according NABE President Chris Varvares, president of group
Macroeconomic Advisers and a member of the NABE. The NABE Outlook survey
presents the consensus of macroeconomic forecasts from a panel of 47
professional economic forecasters.
Among
the key forecasts of the February 2009 survey:
• The
current downturn will most resemble that of 1973-75.
• Real
government spending will advance 2.8% in 2009.
• The
consumer price index will decline 0.8% in 2009, as already large commodity
price declines pass through to consumer prices.
• The
jobless rate will peak at 9.0% by the end of the year. House prices will
decline 5% during 2009, though the S&P 500 index is expected to rise a solid
8% by December 31, 2009.
SOURCE:
National
Association for Business Economics
LONG-TERM BENEFITS OF RECESSION-PROOFING STRATEGIES
With
more businesses and individual workers seeking ways to “recession-proof”
themselves, could the economy emerge from hard times stronger and more
innovative than ever?
Recession-proofing workers might focus on becoming more fearless and
innovative. Take your ideas to the boss rather than allow uncertainties to
back you into your cubicle, urges Robin Fisher Roffer, author of THE
FEARLESS FISH OUT OF WATER (Wiley, 2009). “It may seem scary to make such a
bold move in tenuous times,” she says, “but leaders will appreciate any
innovation that will get business moving right now.”
Businesses, too, are encouraged to be fearlessly proactive rather than
cautious and reactive. Hard times are the time for action, suggests
consultant Suzanne Caplan, because inaction “spawns a pattern of
victimization, and pins us down into a habit of only reacting to the bad,
instead of planning for the better.”
SOURCES:
Robin Fisher Roffer, author of FEARLESS FISH OUT OF WATER
Suzanne Caplan, founder and chief blogger,
www.womenetcetera.com
|
2009 CONFERENCE NEWS !!
 Plans are moving
quickly for WorldFuture 2009: Innovation and Creativity in a Complex World,
to be held July 17-19 in Chicago. Here are the links you need now!
DOWNLOAD LATEST
BROCHURE:
MAKE YOUR RESERVATION
AT THE HILTON CHICAGO:
DEADLINE FOR
CONFERENCE VOLUME SUBMISSIONS IS MARCH 2, 2009!
Submission guidelines:
VOLUNTEER OPPORTUNITY,
VIDEOGRAPHERS: We are looking for a person with an eye—and a videocamera—for
the future to capture featured sessions at the World Future Society’s
upcoming conference in Chicago. In exchange for providing video coverage of
the conference, you will receive a complimentary pass to all general
sessions of the two-and-a-half-day meeting (excludes courses, tour,
luncheons, and Professional Members’ Forum). Please contact Susan Echard,
vice president for membership and conference operations, at
mailto:sechard@wfs.org or 301-656-8274.
WHY CHICAGO? Watch
"Chicago: Greatest Admirers," our tribute to a great city
REGISTER BY FEBRUARY
27 AND SAVE $150 off the on-site registration fee.
MORE AT 2009
CONFERENCE HEADQUARTERS: Get details on confirmed speakers, such as
keynoters Edward Gordon, Kevin Fickenscher, James L. Koch, Arthur Caplan,
Barry Kellman, John Challenger, and more!
|
ALASKA YOUTH
SUCCESS STORIES
Why do some
teenagers make successful transitions into young adulthood (avoiding
substance abuse, suicide, and other problems), while others do not? A
research project following the lives of Inuit youths in Alaska will help
answer this vital question.
Spearheaded by
health educator Lisa Wexler of the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, the
research will survey 120 young-adult Inuit who have avoided these problems
and successfully created balance in their lives between modern and
traditional cultures.
By focusing on the
young people’s resilience, and not just on risk factors, the study aims to
identify and nurture strengths among youth of all different cultures.
SOURCE:
University
of Massachusetts, Amherst
ANTARCTICA’S
ACCELERATED WARMING
Long thought to be
cooling while the rest of the globe warms, Antarctica may be warming at
comparable rates, according to new research by Eric Steig, a University of
Washington professor of earth and space sciences.
The vast East
Antarctica has indeed been cooling, but new satellite data shows that West
Antarctica, with its large ice sheet, has been warming over the past 50
years to levels that offset the east’s cooling.
Steig notes that
the continent is extremely complex and that rates of cooling and warming
vary everywhere, but “the evidence shows the continent as a whole is getting
warmer.” One of the side effects of repairing the hole in the ozone layer
over the Antarctica is that all of Antarctica could begin warming at the
same rate as the rest of the world.
SOURCE: University
of Washington
CLICK OF THE MONTH:
TeacherTube
www.teachertube.com
Helpful and
inspiring multimedia resources for K-12 teachers are just a click away.
TeacherTube offers samples of student projects as well as master-instructor
tutorials on any subject in the curriculum.
One noteworthy
channel focusing on classroom inspiration is The Futures Channel, featuring
well-known teachers like Jaime Escalante and Kay Toliver. Searching videos
with key words like “futures” and “scenarios” yields such interesting
resources as interviews with global educators on “what will school look like
in 15-20 years time” and a series exploring the future of various careers.
Membership is free
and open to anyone over age 18 but geared toward teachers. Members may
upload their own videos, participate in discussion forums, create playlists,
and get tips on integrating multimedia into classroom projects.
|
OUTLOOK 2009
More sex, fewer antidepressants. More religious influence in China, less
religious influence in the Middle East and the United States. More truth and
transparency online, but a totally recorded real life.
These are just a few
of the forecasts in the latest edition of the World Future Society’s annual
Outlook report. Order your own copy, or buy several to distribute to your
colleagues, clients, students, and friends!
ORDER PDF or print copies:
READ the Top 10 Forecasts:
WATCH video preview: |
NEWS
FOR THE FUTURIST COMMUNITY
* WORLD FUTURE
REVIEW’S FIRST ISSUE! Pardon our bias, but the biggest news for the futurist
community right now is the publication of the first issue of WORLD FUTURE
REVIEW, the Society’s professional “Journal of Strategic Foresight.” This
exciting first issue features an interview with 2009 conference keynote
speaker Don Tapscott and a review of his latest book, GROWN UP DIGITAL.
As the successor of
two of the Society’s esteemed journals, FUTURES RESEARCH QUARTERLY and
FUTURE SURVEY, WFR offers an array of original and insightful papers. In the
first issue are “Towards a Future of Global Science” by Elisabet Sahtouris,
“Ensuring Strategic Direction” by Robert E. Neilson, “Ethnography in
Robotics” by Gerardo del Cerro Santamaria, and “The Future Evolution of the
Ecology of Mind” by Tom Lombardo. In addition, WFR has enlisted a stable of
excellent futurist writers to provide abstracts of the latest significant
future-oriented writing, covering books, articles, blogs, and other original
sources.
WFR is included in
Professional Membership of the World Future Society, but for a limited time
only, nonmembers may order this first edition for just $25.
ORDER or LEARN
MORE.
SUBMISSIONS to WFR
should be addressed to Tim Mack, mailto:tmack@wfs.org
* FUTURES STUDIES
ON PERSIAN BBC: Futurist Vahid V. Motlagh was recently interviewed on BBC
Persian Television, offering Persian speakers in Iran and its neighbors a
concise overview of the principles and goals of futures studies. His message
was that studying the future helps inspire us to look to tomorrow with more
hope and creativity.
http://www.vahidthinktank.com/
****************************************************
!! WHAT’S HOT
@WFS.ORG !!
* If the economic
downturn has you down, read what FINANCIAL TIMES columnist Martin Wolf has
to say on what we need to do to turn things around.
Read THE FUTURIST’s
exclusive interview with Wolf “Repairing the World Financial System,”
* Learning the
principles of foresight and the skills of futuring will help you keep a
steady hand on the forces altering our world. Sign up for a free 10-part
e-mail course, “Fundamentals of Foresight,” from WFS president Tim Mack.
ENROLL now:
* Deadline for
high-school-student essay contest submissions is March 31! What are the
challenges you see before you as you look beyond high school? How do you
expect to meet those challenges as you think about college and the future
workplace? The World Future Society is seeking essays on how you are using
futuring skills to take charge of your future. First-prize winner will
receive a three-year membership in the World Future Society and free
admission to WorldFuture 2009, the Society’s annual meeting, to be held in
Chicago July 17-19.
DETAILS:
FUTURIST UPDATE: News & Previews from the World Future Society is an e-mail
newsletter published monthly as a supplement to THE FUTURIST magazine.
Copyright © 2008, World Future Society, 7910 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450,
Bethesda, MD 20814, USA. Telephone 1-301-656-8274; e-mail mailto:info@wfs.org
Web site www.wfs.org
mailto: info@wfs.org ; Web
site http://www.wfs.org .
Editor: Cindy Wagner,
mailto:cwagner@wfs.org
Senior Editor: Patrick
Tucker, mailto:ptucker@wfs.org
Network Administrator: Jeff
Cornish, mailto:jcornish@wfs.org
Vice President,
Membership/Conference Operations: Susan Echard,
mailto: sechard@wfs.org
To subscribe, enter your
e-mail at
http://www.wfs.org/futuristupdate.htm
To unsubscribe or change
your e-mail address, send an e-mail to
jcornish@wfs.org with "unsubscribe" or "change
address" in the subject line.
Submit feedback: to
cwagner@wfs.org
The WORLD FUTURE SOCIETY is a nonprofit, nonpartisan scientific and
educational association with a global membership. Regular membership in the
Society, including a subscription to THE FUTURIST, is $59 per year, or $20
for full-time students under age 25. Professional and Institutional
membership programs are also offered; contact Society headquarters for
details: http://www.wfs.org .
