That long hemlines accompany a bad economy is an old saying in the fashion industry. Today, most experts regard hemline theory as fanciful, but a number of social theorists agree that trends in fashion, movies, or music do reflect public sentiment, which can influence stock market direction. Theoretically at least, new fads could point to shifting economic conditions. But finding the exact correlation between changing music tastes and economic performance is anything but easy.
William Higham, author of The Next Big Thing: Spotting and Forecasting Consumer Trends for Profit (Kogan Page, 2009), argues that the down economy and grumpy public sentiment forecasts an angry music wave in the coming year. However, economics is not the sole cause, says Higham. The next music fad will take more than one form, he believes.
“Consumers’ current mood, which blends confused, afraid, angry, and determined, is due to a mix of financial hardship, anger at being let down by politicians and big business, continuing fear of world events, the speed of technological/social change, and a reassessment of work/life priorities,” Higham told THE FUTURIST.
Jon P. Avlon, author of Independent Nation (Three Rivers Press, 2005), agrees that the public mood is bad and getting worse, and mainstream media will only exacerbate the grumpiness. The angry rhetoric rocking the airwaves and cable channels across the United States, the protestor clashes outside the Copenhagen Summit on Climate Change, and the Tea Party rallies that have lately sprung up in Washington, D.C., are a “reflection of a larger trend, the fragmentation of modern media, which has had an ironic effect on the way we get our information,” he wrote to THE FUTURIST. “The best ratings are achieved by [TV and radio] hosts who cultivate narrow but intense niche audiences. This has helped pump up the hate and hyper-partisanship we see today.”
Higham argues that previous eras of socioeconomic flux had two distinct and separate effects on pop culture. Mainstream music (which appeals more to baby boomers) became more quiet, subdued, and quaint, whereas “alternative” music, marketed primarily to younger people, became louder and more primal.
“Socioeconomic problems drove rock in the 1960s, heavy rock and punk in the 1970s, gangsta rap in the late 1980s, and grunge in the 1990s. So the new consumer mood will, I believe, drive a rise in both more aggressively patriotic mainstream roots music (the soundtrack to Tea Party anger) and more angry, dissonant Alternative music (the soundtrack to environmental protest),” he said.
Visible changes in fashion, television, movies, and particularly pop music can not only reflect a nation’s economic circumstances, but predict them as well, according to scholars with the Socionomics Institute.
In the October 2009 issue of The Socionomist, authors Matt Lampert and Euan Wilson claim that the commercial success of particular types of popular culture items — the music, movies, and TV shows that big-name clothiers and studios market to the public — can indicate stock market changes. When the public’s “social mood” and popular culture are both good, then upbeat or even vapid entertainment fare becomes the rage and the economy is likely in or about to enter a bullish cycle. Teen or tween pop acts such as the Jonas Brothers, Miley Cyrus, and High School Musical epitomized the bull market for stocks following the 2002 recession, say Lampert and Wilson. Supporting their theory, they point to the commercial success of 1980s bubblegum pop musicians such as Michael Jackson and Cyndi Lauper during a period of economic growth.
When both popular culture and social mood are down, movies, television, and music will trend toward the dark, gritty, dissatisfied, and potentially innovative; in a word, bearish. Lampert and Wilson attribute the rise of Seattle grunge aesthetic during the early 1990s to the recession that began in 1987, and the rise of punk rock in the mid-1970s to falling affluence and economic stagnation of that decade, particularly the 1970 to 1973 period.
A diminished stock market, high unemployment, and unprecedented government intervention that characterized the 2008 and 2009 economic environment portends terribly for social mood going forward. Recent poll numbers indicate as much. Some 55% of Americans think the country is on the wrong track, and 66% say that they aren’t confident that their children’s lives will be better than their own (as opposed to 27% who are confident), according to a Wall Street Journal/NBC poll from December. Yet, popular music in the United States remained “planted in bull territory” during this time. The disconnect suggests a pop culture lag. Forecast: Expect further stock market losses and a downbeat music wave.
“The continued reign of light popular music is an indicator that stocks are high, not low,” write Lampert and Wilson. “Coincident socioeconomic indicators convey compatible messages, and we can use one to validate the other.... At minimum, when social mood turns negative, lyrical themes will become dark and melody will diminish. Many performers who play discordant, experimental styles will find an audience. A genre even more aggressive than punk will ultimately emerge.”
Whether music is becoming angrier, lighter, more primal, or more quaint is no easy determination in an environment where cultural trends can be measured using an ever-wider array of metrics. And music fads will remain an imprecise (at best) indicator of stock market performance into the foreseeable future, according to other sociologists.
“I think there might be a correlation,” says Higham, “but it would be a brave man to bet [his] portfolio on a number one hit album.” — Patrick Tucker
Sources: The Socionomist (October 2009), www.socionomics.net.
The Next Big Thing: Spotting and Forecasting Consumer Trends for Profit by William Highham. Kogan Page, 2009. 261 pages. $29.95.
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