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A magazine of forecasts, trends, and ideas about the future
March-April 2010


 
 

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Overcoming the “Desk Potato” Syndrome

The information age has created an epidemic of slothful office workers, increasing risk of cardiovascular disease and other health problems. One solution is to create a more physically demanding work environment that does not detract from knowledge workers’ productivity. The Active Desk aims to do just that by giving workers a treadmill instead of a chair and by elevating the desktop to facilitate both work and workout. Designed by University of California, San Diego, researcher Ernesto Ramirez, the Active Desk is being tested by employees at the university’s California Institute for Telecommunications and Information Technology.

Source: University of California, San Diego, http://ucsdnews.ucsd.edu .

Aeronautic Engineers Help Capture Ocean Energy

The same engineering principles that go into keeping planes in the air may also help us collect more energy from ocean waves. The goal is to develop systems that are durable and extremely efficient at any depth. U.S. Air Force Academy researchers took a “lift” rather than “drag” approach to design propeller blades, giving them a vertical orientation to interact directly with the cyclic, up and down motion of waves. With individual controls for each of the blades, they can be maneuvered to maximize the waves’ energy output..

Source: National Science Foundation, www.nsf.gov

 

Carbon Dioxide’s Long-Term Impacts on Plants

Rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide is both good news and bad news for the plants of the world, according to researchers with the U.S. Department of Agriculture. For instance, both genetically modified soybeans and the weeds that they’ve been modified to resist could be stimulated by increased COO2 levels. Some species, such as the longleaf pine, would also get a boost in water-use efficiency, thus becoming more tolerant of droughts. But the pines’ fitness may threaten the growth and survival of the plants lying below their canopy, as well as the insects and microbes on the forest floor, warn the researchers. Moreover, fast-growing invasive weeds could become even more troublesome as CO2 levels increase to a predicted 550 parts per million by 2050.

Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service, www.ars.usda.gov .

Retirement Planning Trends

Decisions about retirement increasingly include such issues as managing health-care costs, developing an income-withdrawal strategy, and even—for the recently retired—“;unretiring.” About 40% of financial-planning clients who are in or near retirement are asking for help in making lifestyle changes, reports the Financial Planning Association. Fear of outliving one’s income has become a growing concern, especially as the forces of a weak economy and soaring health-care costs converge. Demand for personalized approaches to planning has grown: Nearly half of the planners surveyed reported gaining between four and 10 new retirement income clients in the last year.

Source: Financial Planning Association, www.fpanet.org  .

WordBuzz: Anarconomy

The era of open-source, Wiki-style information gathering and sharing has produced an “anarconomy”—a cooperative, communal mind-set that has turned competitive-model economics on its head, according to the Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies..

We may soon see the principles of anarconomy extend beyond the Internet into the material world, as the technologies of 3-D printing become more sophisticated and cheaper, the Institute predicts in a recent report.

Source: Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies, www.cifs.dk/en/anarconomy.asp#. Download Members’ Report 03/2009: www.cifs.dk/doc/medlemsrapporter/MR0309UK.pdf

Trends in Brief

An Index for Climate Change

Data sets on four key climate indicators are being used to create the world’s first climate-change index, so that the complexity of the planet’s systems can be distilled to a number that everyone can follow, like the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

The International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme, a research network of 10,000 scientists, is focusing on sea levels, global temperature, Arctic sea ice, and atmospheric CO2 levels.

The index is intended to provide an annual snapshot of the planet’s systems, giving policy makers and other nonscientists an accessible overview of the complex interactions of these variables.

Source: International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme, www.igbp.net .

Deaths from Liver Disease May Rise

Treatment rates for the hepatitis C virus are declining in the United States. If the trend continues, the result could be an increase in deaths from liver diseases such as cirrhosis and liver cancer, warns a study from the University of Michigan.

Hepatitis C is a common, blood-borne viral infection that damages the liver. It can be treated with antiviral medications, but only half of patients know they are infected and therefore do not receive treatment, according to the study.

Incidence of new infections has declined, but deaths could increase fourfold in the next 20 years due to longstanding untreated infections.

Source: “The Public Health Impact of Antiviral Therapy for Hepatitis C in the United States” by Michael L. Volk et al., Hepatology (December 2009), a journal of the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases, www.interscience.wiley.com .

Record Number of Doctorate Degrees

The number of doctorate degrees awarded in the United States has risen for six straight years, reaching a record 48,802 in 2008, according to the National Science Foundation’s Survey of Earned Doctorates. One-third of these degrees (33.1%) went to temporary visa holders, up from 23.3% in 1998.

Science and engineering doctorates have increased by more than 20% in the past decade and by 3.2% from 2007 to 2008. Computer science had the largest rate of increase (7.9% in 2007–2008 and nearly double in the past decade).

In contrast, doctorates in non-science and engineering fields have declined, particularly the humanities (down 7.1%). One exception is education, which awarded 2.1% more doctorates in 2008 than in 2007.

Source: National Science Foundation, www.nsf.gov .

 

Calorie Restriction and Healthy Aging

Antiaging researchers have long recognized the role of calorie restriction on increasing life spans, but such diets have negative side effects, such as reduced fertility.

The key to overcoming this problem may be to reduce consumption of specific nutrients rather than simply consuming fewer calories, according to researchers at University College London Institute of Healthy Ageing and Max Planck Institute the Institute for Biology of Ageing.

In their studies with female fruit flies, the scientists found that varying the types and amounts amino acids could affect longevity and fertility, while altering vitamins and lipids had little impact. One particular amino acid, methionine, was found to be crucial to increasing life span without decreasing fertility.

Since there are many similarities between fruit flies and humans on a genetic level, the scientists are optimistic that finding the right balance of amino acid consumption could extend life spans without compromising fertility or sacrificing our favorite foods.

Source: Max Planck Society, www.mpg.de/english. “Amino-Acid Imbalance Explains Extension of Lifespan by Dietary Restriction in Drosophila” by Richard C. Grandison, Mathew D. W. Piper, and Linda Partridge, Nature (December 3, 2009), www.nature.com.

U.S. Companies Optimistic about China

An overwhelming majority (90%) of American companies doing business in China are “optimistic” or “slightly optimistic” about the five-year outlook for China’s growing domestic market, according to the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai (AmCham).

What makes China a bright spot on an otherwise bleak business landscape is, simply, its population of consumers. Companies in China that are focused on producing goods for the Chinese market, rather than exporting Chinese goods back to the United States, were less likely to be impacted by the global downturn.

Of the American companies surveyed, 74% ranked China as a top-three investment priority, and nearly 20% ranked it number one, AmCham reports.

Source: The American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai, www.amcham-shanghai.org/AmchamPortal .

Personalities Predict Successful Medical Students

Conscientiousness will stand a student in good stead at the beginning of medical school, while extraverts are at a disadvantage, according to a study of Belgian medical students, led by University of Minnesota psychology professor Deniz Ones.

However, extraverts (assertive and warm) and those scoring high on agreeableness and altruism tend to excel later as they go through the seven-year curriculum, facing the challenges of interacting with patients and performing as interns.

“Personality traits predict the acquisition of knowledge, persistence on tasks, and performance in patient interactions, and thus should also be considered in medical school admissions,” says Ones. This process could thus help schools identify individuals most likely to thrive not only as students, but also as doctors.

Source: University of Minnesota, www.umn.edu.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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