Contents for
November-December 2009
Volume 43, No. 6
A magazine of forecasts, trends, and ideas about the future.
Tomorrow in Brief
Making Personal Data Vanish
Cancer Mortality Rates Are Declining
Smart Cane Will Help Visually Impaired
Portable Food Tester
WordBuzz: Complexipacity
Feedback
Consultants and Services
The Dawn of the
Postliterate Age
By Patrick Tucker
Information technology, cybernetics, and artificial intelligence may render
written language “functionally obsolete” by 2050. For the literate elite —
which includes everyone from Barack Obama to this spring’s MFA graduates —
the gnashing of teeth and rending of garments over the demise of reading has
become obligatory theater. Poets, writers, and teachers alike stand over the
remains of a once-proud book culture like a Greek chorus gloomily crowded
around a fallen king. How can it be that, between 1982 and 2007, reading
declined by nearly 20% for the overall U.S. population and 30% for young
adults aged 18–24, or that 40 million Americans read at the lowest literacy
level?
Plus: The Rapid Evolution of "Text"
An Atlantic author looks toward a less-literate future.
By Nicholas Carr
Why the World May Turn to Nuclear Power
By Richard Stieglitz with Rick Docksai
Demand for fossil fuels may decline, but demand for electric
power will soar. Nuclear power, resisted by many, may provide a long-term
solution, and it has come a long way since Three Mile Island and Chernobyl.
PLUS
Second Thoughts on Nuclear Power
By Michael Mariotte
Cancer, toxic spills, and damage to ecosystems from mining might come with
nuclear energy production.
PDF Available.
|
Outlook
2010 |
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Innovation and
Creativity in a Complex World
Visions |
Young scientists entering their fields today will grapple with perplexing questions that their elders have left behind. What’s Next? Dispatches on the Future of Science offers some of their answers. Editor Max Brockman personally scouted out 18 of the most promising new researchers and solicited original articles from them. The resulting compilation promises to be “a representative who’s who of the coming generation of scientists.” Review by Rock Docksai.
U.S. Seeks Greater Role for Unmanned Vehicles
The number of unmanned combat missions has increased 600% in the last six years. The U.S. military hopes to use drones for cargo transportation and refueling.
Society
Closing the Gender Gap in Online Gaming
Computer games can serve as a gateway to the fields of technology and
science. Technology’s more entertaining aspects awaken youth interest and
encourage careers in the field. If the gender gap in these predominantly
male professions is going to close, then gaming may provide a solid means of
boosting computer technology’s appeal among females.
Recession's Impacts on Lifestyles
What people won't give up for love or money. One of the beneficial effects
to society of dealing with a recession is that individuals learn to budget
themselves, their organizations, and their families. Around the world,
people are making painful choices on ways to save money, and in the process
revealing much about their values and priorities.
Demography
Debunking the “Depression Gene”
In 2003, researchers reported to great
excitement that they had identified what could be called a “depression gene”
— a genetic link to the risk of major depression. But new analysis of the
groundbreaking study now disputes this conclusion. A new analysis, conducted
by researchers at the National Institute of Mental Health, finds no strong
association between the gene and risk of depression.
Environment
“Waste Heat” a Potential Threat to the Climate
A new paper argues that cutting greenhouse gas emissions, switching to
nuclear or geothermal power, and even sequestering carbon in the earth won’t
stave off massively disruptive climate change.
Oceans’ Dead Zones on the Rise
A
predicted global increase in food consumption is likely to create an
environmental crisis where it’s least expected. Studies link a rise in
industrial food production to an increase in the already large number of
so-called “dead zones” in coastal waters.
Technology
Coming Soon: A Smarter Internet
Less
Web searching, more Web finding. The founders of a new U.S. start-up called
SemanticV have come up with a new weapon in the war against information
overload: a search engine that actually learns the meaning of words for
which it’s searching.
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November-December 2009
(Volume 43, No. 6)
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