Futures Thinking: Mapping the Possibilities, and Writing Scenarios

(tap tap... this thing on? There's dust and cobwebs all over the place.)
A Cold War Over Warming

What happens if global efforts to set and abide by strong carbon emissions cuts fail?
The standard answer to a question like this is that "we all suffer." While that's probably true, it misses the point -- we may all suffer, but we don't all suffer equally. Some nations will be hit harder by storms or droughts than others; some nations will have the resources and technologies to adapt better than others. And therein lies the potential for what may end up as a nasty tool of international competition.
If I Can't Dance, I Don't Want to be Part of Your Singularity -- the Video

The talk I gave at the New York Future Salon is now available!
Resilience Fail

Quick question: where does this URL go to?
How about this one?
Would you have guessed that the first goes to a Computerworld article about business-appropriate avatars, and the second goes to the previous post on Open the Future?
Kindle and Orwell and Clouds

New Fast Company essay is now up: Head in the Clouds looks at cloud computing in light of Amazon's nuking of purchased Kindle copies of 1984 and Animal Farm.:
That's Impossible: Real Terminators

Okay, managed to put together a collection of the scenes I'm in from the July 14 "That's Impossible" episode.
The Dark Side of Twittering a Revolution

The emergence of Twitter as a heroic enabling technology for the pro-democracy demonstrators in Iran this past week has been a thrilling reminder of the power of distributed communication tools. I'm impressed at how useful this simple application has been shown to be, and at the clever hacks the Iran-based commentators have employed to stay online. As so many tech pundits have said, this has been a golden moment for social networking technologies.
And, I have to admit, it's scared the hell out of me.
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