Stephen Aguilar-Millan's blog

“If you were advising your twenty-something children about investing in a pension, where would you advise them to invest?”

We have received a number of requests to clarify and expand upon a point made in our last update. In it we said that “the US stock of debt has a half life of just over 4 years and a coupon of just under 6%, which suggests a very pressing issue for the 2016 US Presidential Election”. We have been asked to explain exactly what that means and what chain of events might be triggered out to 2016.

It sometimes helps to view the future as a very large and very complex jig-saw puzzle where, in the present, we have most of the pieces to the jig-saw. The skill of the futurist is to fit those pieces together in a way that allows us to view the future usefully.

In a previous post we highlighted the plight of the three Baltic States (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania – see post). We see the recent events in the Baltic States as the European example of the Icarus Effect – economies that have flown high and which have now hit the ground with a hard landing. As this has happened, there has been a political price to pay, and we now need to address what that price might be.

Keeping with the July/ August 2009 issue of Foreign Affairs, there is an interesting article by Andrew F. Krepinevich Jr. on ‘The Pentagon’s Wasting Assets’, which is more appropriately subtitled ‘The Eroding Foundations of American Power’. In many ways, this develops the thinking touched upon in the past two posts. First, we asked the question ‘When Is China not China’ to start to think about the expansion of Chinese territorial limits (see post).

This is an interesting article because of what it doesn’t tell us rather than what it does tell us. It would appear that the GDP figures for the first quarter of 2009 have been revised downwards from –1.9% to –2.4%. We can accept that the official figures may be subject to periodic revision, and that the revisions can be quite substantial at times (the GDP figure was revised by about a quarter). However, it doesn’t really convey a great deal of information about where we are now, and, more importantly, where we are headed in the future.