What’s New in Future Methodology and in the State of the Future?

The speaker will discuss both updates on futures research methodologies and global prospects for humanity. Version 2.0 of Futures Research Methodology has been updated and additional methods have been added for a total of more than 40 chapters in the new Version 3.0. An overview and observations about futures methodology will be presented. The speaker will also share updates on the global challenges we face, such as new research on human rights, environmental investments, water scenarios, and other global issues.

Who should attend: Future consultants, policy makers in governments, international organizations and businesses, and teachers of future studies and global issues.
What you’ll learn: Participants will gain a more complete spectrum of futures methods, how to use Futures Research Methodology Version 3.0, and an executive overview of the global challenges as a framework for thinking about the global future.
How this new knowledge can be applied:

Jerome C. Glenn, director, Millennium Project, World Federation of UN Associations; co-editor, Futures Research Methodology Version 3.0; co-author, 2009 State of the Future, Washington, D.C.

key words: futures, methodologies
issue area: Futures Methodologies

Constructing Alternative Futures: From Techniques to Processes

This panel is attempting to share a comprehensive overview of a variety of methods in predicting the futures. We are currently building an extensive Futures Studies and Methodologies Database encompassing the methodologies and results of major future projects around the world. This session aims to help understand and analyze major trends for future changes. General foresight tools and processes often need to be adapted to analyze different aspects of country-specific problems and visions. We hope that our experience with a wide range of futures techniques and tools including, causal layered analysis, scenario building, and so on, will stimulate further practical ideas of future foresight. This session offers an opportunity to engage with contemporary thinking and interactive debates about futures-studies methodologies.

Who should attend: Anyone interested in methodologies, techniques, and processes in futures studies. Policy makers who are responsible for foresight and strategic planning are particularly encouraged to attend.
What you’ll learn: Participants will get practical advice on which methods to choose and how to use them in practice in order to create preferred futures for their own contexts. Attendees will learn ideas, visions, and roles of how to use foresight approaches, including processes and techniques.
How this new knowledge can be applied: Participants can use the knowledge and skills to make informed decisions to apply a range of futures methods to their countries and the specific challenges they face. The knowledge is the final puzzle piece in completing the larger picture of the global world with various perspectives from diverse regions.

Seung Hoon Lee, professor, National Research Council for Economics, Humanities, and Social Sciences (NRCS), Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea
Young Chul Chang, chief, Presidential Council of Future and Vision, Executive Office of Future Planning, Seoul, Korea
Hie Shin Hwang, research fellow, Korea Institute of Public Administration, Seoul, Korea
Jaeho Lee, research fellow, Korea Institute of Public Administration, Seoul, Korea
Kyoungdon Park, associate research fellow, Korea Institute of Public Administration, Seoul, Korea
Yongseok Seo, associate research fellow, Korea Institute of Public Administration, Seoul, Korea

key words: methodologies, future studies, database
issue areas: Futures Methodologies, Social and Cultural Trends

Anticipating the Future: Guidelines for Prognostication in an Unpredicatable World

This presentation begins with historical examples of how planners and others using conventional techniques—such as surveys, focus groups, stochastic forecasting, and the Delphi technique—have had limited success predicting important developments. Observers inaccurately forecast public response to a vast number of technologies, including radio, the telephone, the automobile, and the airplane. Automakers dramatically underestimated the broad appeal of SUVs and more recently hybrid vehicles. Business leaders and government officials seem surprised at recent economic developments such as the mortgage meltdown, the housing price slump, and the impact of higher energy prices on the global economy. 

Several guidelines are suggested that can improve our ability to anticipate the future. These include the importance of intuition, the need to separate hype from reality, the limits of Internet-based information, and the need for planners and researchers to read outside their field and specialty. Importantly, we must listen to what the data is really telling us. For example, economists ignored the looming economic impact of the recent oil spike, despite historical precedent for such an eventuality. The speaker also discusses the need to look at the present from the perspective of those living in the future. 

Market planners should not assume that the public attitude toward or awareness of a technology at its initial introduction is a valid predictor of that product’s ultimate acceptance. The public at large was not aware of the need for home computers or CDs until these technologies actually entered the market. On the other hand, sometimes the public is well ahead of industry and inventors regarding the ultimate use of certain technologies. Such is the case of the Internet, whose evolution is largely being directed by the public user. The cell phone revolution and the texting craze are also demand-driven phenomena.

Who should attend: Members of the business and community, educators, government policy planners, futurists, academics, social scientists, and anyone interested in the global future.
What you’ll learn: Attendees will gain a broader understanding of the planning and prognostication process, as well as the obstacles encountered in this process. They will also be exposed to guidelines they can use in the planning process. In addition, they will learn about some breakthrough innovations that could soon become major factors in the global economy.
How this new knowledge can be applied: Anyone involved in the planning on the professional level in government, industry, and education could benefit from exposure to the guidelines. In addition, attendees can apply this information to their careers and their personal lives. After all, this lecture deals with the issue of planning and predicting, skills everyone needs to succeed. 

Michael G. Zey, professor, Montclair State University, Morristown, New Jersey.

key words: technology, planning demographics, future, prediction
issue area: Futures Methodologies

Driving Creativity and Innovation with Futuring

This talk examines the use of futuring tools and methods in the course of an advanced concept development process. A brief description of relevant futuring practices will include an overview of psychology theory that relates to their use in practical settings. A case study in developing advanced human–machine interface (HMI) solutions for the vehicle environment will offer a practical demonstration of that application.

Who should attend: Those interested in learning how futuring tools and methods can drive the design and development of successful new products and systems.
What you’ll learn: Participants will attain an overview of common design processes, with examples of how futuring tools and methods can add value to these processes.
How this new knowledge can be applied: For those involved in design, this session provides an introduction to integrating futuring tools and methods in the design process. For those involved in futuring, it offers a case study of how futuring tools made a practical contribution to product design.

Michael Tschirhart, manager of human–machine interface design, Visteon Corporation, Van Buren Township, Michigan.

key words:  product design, innovation, creativity
issue areas: Futures Methodologies, Technology and Science, Business and Careers

Bridging the Futures: An East Asian Perspective

This session is an arena bridging the futures in East Asia and the rest of the world. The Korea Institute of Public Administration, a government-funded research institute under the Office of the Prime Minister, is currently conducting a comprehensive future study project in collaboration with the Presidential Council for Future and Vision. We have been conducting a vast future research since last year, deriving various scenarios of East Asia in the context of globalization. Possible demands and policy issues in the future are explored and narrowed by experts in five major fields (society, technology, environment/ resources, economy, and politics), and Q-methodology is utilized to draw up a list of priorities among those issues. Governance systems in the future are explored. 

Who should attend: All futurists and individuals interested in the future of East Asia and the Pacific region, as well as those who are interested in globalization, global security, and governance in the future.
What you’ll learn: Participants will learn how specific foresight tools are actually applied in practice. They will also gain knowledge and insights into various fields of the future of East Asia and Korea. The future reunification between South Korea and North Korea will be one of the themes in this session.
How this new knowledge can be applied: Those attending the session will obtain practical and applicable knowledge about foresight techniques and methods. The session will also help practitioners, educators, and academics become informed about various future trends in East Asia, thus helping them imagine and cope with global futures.

Yong-Duck Jung, president, Korea Institute of Public Administration, Seoul, Korea
Dongwook Kim, professor, Seoul National University, Graduate School of Public Administration, Seoul, Korea
Hie Shin Hwang, director,  Korea Institute of Public Administration, Seoul, Korea
Hyeon-Suk Lyu, research fellow, Korea Institute of Public Administration, Seoul, Korea
Ho Jin Choi, research fellow, Korea Institute of Public Administration, Seoul, Korea

key words:  East Asia, Korea, governance
issue areas: Futures Methodologies, Governance and Communities, Social and Cultural Trends

Success Concepts Based on Alternative Market Scenarios for China

Scenario approach is a method within the field of futures research. The quality of scenarios is not measured by the ability to reveal the future outcomes, but by the ability to affect the decisions that are made. Scenarios are a part of the strategic planning process. In this session, scenarios are applied to the alternative development paths for China from the viewpoint of companies operating in China 

Who should attend: strategic planners, business leaders, futurists and anyone interested in operating in the China market.
What you’ll learn: Attendees will learn new tools to create scenarios, developing visionary business concepts and future business models for the China market.
How this new knowledge can be applied: Preparing more flexible strategies, developing visionary business concepts and using new tools will help your businesses and organizations work within the China market.

Tarja Meristo,  corporate futurist and research director, Corporate Foresight Group CoFi at Abo Akademi University, Turku, Finland
Hanna Lehtimaki, executive manager, Life Works Consulting Ltd; adjunct professor, University of Tampere, Tampere, Finland
Jyrki Kettunen, corporate futurist, Da Wo Ltd, Kirjala, Finland
Johanna Kujala, professor, University of Tampere, Department of Management Studies, Tampere, Finland

 key words:  scenario planning, China
issue areas: Futures Methodologies, Business and Careers, Governance and Communities

FOR MORE INFORMATION CONTACT:
World Future Society Headquarters
7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450
Bethesda, Maryland 20814
Web site: www.wfs.org.
Telephone: 800-989-8274 or 301-656-8274; fax: 301-951-0394