Monday, July 20, 2009
9:00 a.m. - 5:00 p.m.
AGENDA
8:30–9:00 a.m. Coffee and Light Continental Breakfast
9:00–9:10 a.m. Review of Day
9:10 a.m.–12:10 p.m.Outlooks from Abroad
The Future of China (9:10–9:55 a.m.)
Paul Tinari, director, Pacific Institute of Advanced Studies, Coquitlam, British Columbia, Canada
This trends assessment focuses on the long-term sustainability of China’s present course. China has cornered the market for many products around the world and has managed to generate more wealth faster than any other society in history; it is therefore soon expected to overtake the United States as the world’s largest economy. But the fact is that China remains a repressive one-party state. The Chinese cultural preference for male offspring means that by the year 2020 there will be more than 30 million more males than females in China. If present trends continue, China by the mid-twenty-first century will be facing a collapsing birthrate with a rapidly aging population. China will be the first nation in history to get old before it gets rich.
Futures Studies in Iran: Learning through Trial and Error (9:55–10:40 a.m.)
Ali Paya, associate professor of philosophy, National Research Institute for Science Policy, Tehran, Iran; visiting professor, Centre for the Study of Democracy, University of Westminster, London, United Kingdom
Hamid-Reza Baradaran Shoraka, associate professor of economics and head of the Department of Futures Studies, Institute for Management and Planning Studies, Tehran, Iran
Futures Studies as a research discipline—which aims at becoming a proper scientific field and a set of methodologies, methods, and techniques for obtaining appropriate data and information and interpreting them in appropriate ways—is a recent edition to the academic and intellectual/policy making life in Iran. Our goal is to present an in-depth analysis of an ongoing and comprehensive project in the field of Futures Studies, whose objective is to provide top Iranian decision makers with a set of scenarios with regard to the future developments in a number of areas, including science and technology, population, economy, and the energy sector until 2025.
10:40–10:50 a.m. Break
India 2025 (10:50–11:30 a.m.)
Moshen Tikku, director, Centre for Future Studies, Guragon, India
The speaker will present the critical nature of the relationship among three D’s—Democracy, Demography, and Disparities—in the Indian context. Changes or absence of changes in the profile of demography and disparities shall hugely impact the conduct of the democratic processes and institutions in the next decade.
What happens when the democratic dividend of a predominantly youthful population begins to taper off in the next decade and how should India deal with it? Continuing modernization shall introduce new strains in a traditional society in which considerable numbers still remain outside the process.
South Asia may continue as a potentially unstable/fragilely stable region, with poor performances in social development and beset with religions fundamentalism, of which Jehadi terrorism is just one manifestation. What will be the impact on India, and how will India deal with it?
The economic and institutional reforms process in India and India’s status in this process will be discussed. The critical issue is whether the current high growth rates are sustainable to 2025. Alternative scenarios will be examined.
Four Possible Futures for New Zealand (11:30 a.m.–12:10 p.m.)
Wendy McGuinness, chief executive and editor, Sustainable Future, Wellington, New Zealand
Mapping the future of a country within the context of the global landscape is a challenging task. Initiated in late 2006, Project 2058 is a three-year program of Sustainable Future. Its aim is to explore New Zealand’s long-term future through creating scenarios that investigate the next fifty years.
Four possible futures were mapped, using two overarching tensions: How New Zealand manages itself, and how the world manages itself. This approach created four different and opposing futures, which became Scenarios One through Four.
Scenario One is the well-managed, desirable future. Scenario Two would deliver New Zealanders an isolationist and vulnerable nation in a hostile world. Scenario Three would likely deliver the end of New Zealand’s autonomy, and the country would be unrecognizable to New Zealanders of today. Scenario Four could deliver the end of humanity within the next century.
It becomes apparent that New Zealand has a very strong vested interest in ensuring that the world does manage itself well. If it does not, this country cannot survive in the long term. The findings have implications for other small countries, for countries with agriculture-based economies and for powerful countries looking to partner with small countries.12:15–1:15 p.m. Lunch (Normandie Lounge)
1:15–2:15 p.m.
Future Studies for Graduate Students: A European Perspective
Nathalie Riond, founding partner, Planext; lecturer at HEC, Paris, France
Karim Medjad, aw professor, co-head, Alternative Management track at HEC, Paris, France
At HEC Paris we have developed a specialized track entitled Alternative Management. One-third of the total curriculum (more than 100 hours) is devoted to future studies, including the design of actual scenarios on various economic or sociological issues. From a pedagogical standpoint, this option has proven remarkably successful in a number of dimensions. No other discipline puts students in a situation where they have to routinely combine rigor, critical judgment, and creativity. Also, a program aiming at presenting alternative management options inevitably entails a number of courses ranging from history and comparative law to anthropology and economics, thus creating a complex patchwork of knowledge whose interrelation is sometimes difficult to grasp. Finally, the scenarios are actually publishable material that is posted on the school’s Web site.
2:15–3:00 p.m.
Population and Food: Future Challenges
Godfrey Roberts, clinical professor of science, New York University, New York, New York
The world population at 6.7 billion presents a major global challenge, especially because one billion humans are hungry and poor while another billion are over consuming and affluent. In spite of the recent declines in birthrates in many less-developed countries, all of the growth of population in the next few decades will be among the poorest countries. In a world with increasing economic problems, the prevalence of HIV/AIDS, poverty, hunger, and terrorism in many of the poorest nations presents a major global challenge. A pressing question now is the ethical and moral responsibility of the affluent nations of the world to respond to these challenges.
3:00–3:15 p.m. Break
3:15–4:15 p.m.
Professional Futures Perspective
Terry Grim, futurist, strategist, Social Technologies, Seabrook, Texas
Peter Bishop, associate professor of strategic foresight, co-coordinator of the graduate program in Futures Studies, University of Houston, Houston, Texas
This session looks toward the future of the futures profession. As with good forecasts, the history and a current scan of the field sets the context for the discussion. The future will be presented as the result of trends, uncertainties, and issues, framed as a set of multiple plausible scenarios. The audience will also be engaged in selecting their preferred future.
4:15–4:45 p.m. Summary and Analysis
FOR MORE INFORMATION CONTACT:
World Future Society
Headquarters
7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450
Bethesda, Maryland 20814
Web site: www.wfs.org
Telephone: 800-989-8274 or 301-656-8274; fax: 301-951-039
