Defining Long-Term Strategy Plans for Industry Sectors in Brazil

Governments all over the world hope to make their industry sectors more competitive in the global economy. A sectorial foresight methodology that was created to define long-term strategy plans for six industry sectors in Brazil will be introduced. Each is aligned with an industrial policy that aims to reorganize strategic sectors, enhance their competitiveness in the global market, and increase foreign sales of value-added products. The method is based on the development of strategic and technological road maps and consists of four phases: foresight planning, understanding the present, futuring perspectives, and prospecting future opportunities.

Who should attend: Strategic planners, policy makers, futurists, and industrialists.
What you’ll learn: Attendees will gain knowledge of sectorial foresight methodology created to define long-term strategy plans for specific industry sectors in Brazil, which could be applicable to other emerging markets. In addition, they will learn about the challenges involved in adapting the road-map technique to the broader scope of industrial sectors.
How this new knowledge can be applied: For those involved with planning, this presentation will provide critical insight on how to best position industry sectors, identify a common vision, align expectations within a large set of stakeholders, and define government policies that will lead to competitive programs. 

Claudio Nehme, adviser to the executive director, Center for Strategic Management and Studies of Science, Technology and Innovation, Brasilia, Brazil
Adriano Galvao, technical adviser, Center for Strategic Management and Studies of Science, Technology and Innovation, Brasilia, Brazil

key words: foresight, innovation, industrial sectors
issue area: Governance and Communities, Futures Methodologies

Charrettes, Scenarios, and Synergy: EnVISIONing Annapolis 2060—Using the Future to Build the Present

The future ain’t what it used to be, particularly when it is a tool to guide the present. This presentation is a case study that outlines an emerging strategy for setting the modern course for a growing colonial-era city: Annapolis, Maryland, USA. Teams from Catholic University of America, Morgan State University, University of Maryland College Park, and Virginia Tech participated in the 2060 Annapolis Design Charrette, an intense investigation, creative conceptualization, and design of future scenarios for the city. The project was sponsored and funded by EnVISIONing Annapolis, a nonprofit organization. Citizen feedback was gathered and organized by the Institute for the Future @ Anne Arundel Community College. The charrettes were (and are) utilized in a variety of ways to stimulate thought and promote coherent planning in the city and the region, as well as educate students of architecture and sociology. The presentation (1) outlines the process, (2) highlights the value of the charrette-creation process in enhancing social design and planning, and (3) demonstrates the value of futures thinkers, futuring processes, and the relationship between architecture and futuring in fostering social change.

Who should attend: People particularly focused on transforming communities and dealing with community change and community governance and planning. Community leaders, planners, architects, future methodologists.
What you’ll learn: Participants will acquire new futures thinking and action strategies. They will also find out how to create a powerful synergy between charrette design and futuring.
How this new knowledge can be applied: This session provides a practical way for community citizens to see diverse futures. Attendees will take away new processes and procedures for futures thinking and planning.

Miriam Gusevich, director, Graduate Concentration in Urban Design, The Catholic University of America, School of Architecture and Planning, Washington, D.C.
Garth Rockcastle, professor and dean, School of Architecture, Planning and Preservation, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland
Glenn LaRue Smith, chair, Graduate Landscape Architecture Department, School of Architecture and Planning, Morgan State University, Baltimore, Maryland
Ellen Sullivan, PhD candidate, College of Architecture and Urban Studies Washington Alexandria Architecture Center Virginia Polytechnic Institute, Alexandria, Virginia
Lesley Golenor, PhD candidate, College of Architecture and Urban Studies Washington Alexandria Architecture Center Virginia Polytechnic Institute, Alexandria, Virginia

Organizer: Stephen F. Steele, professor, sociology and Futures Studies; director, Institute for the Future @ Anne Arundel Community College, Arnold, Maryland

key words: city planning, futures, social change
issue areas: Governance and Communities, Futures Methodologies

The Futures of the United States

Graduate students at the University of Houston embarked on a study of the future of the United States. Seven topics that have large, long-term implications for the future of the country were chosen. These include climate change, energy, federal budget, globalization, health insurance, immigration, and infrastructure.

The class created a Web site, and their materials were posted for use by teachers and other citizens: http://thefuturesoftheus.wetpaint.com

This session will be a brief summary of what the students discovered about the future of issues, with a special emphasis on the expected and alternative future scenarios.

Who should attend: Anyone interested in the long-term future of the United States, particularly given the events of the first six months of the new administration.
What you’ll learn: Participants will learn how long-term issues will affect their lives, and the lives of their children and grandchildren, to the year 2028.
How this new knowledge can be applied: Participants will be able to see how futurists view these long-term issues compared with how politicians and the media view them.

Peter Bishop, associate professor of strategic foresight, coordinator of the graduate program in Futures Studies, University of Houston, Houston, Texas

Students from University of Houston Futures Program

key words: scenarios, long-term implications, futures
issue areas: Governance and Communities, Futures Methodologies

Developing Creative Public Safety Leaders to Cope With a Complex Multinational World

For many years, progressive instructors in leadership development in the public safety field have included material on creative, holistic, futuristic thinking in their programs. The skills/mind-set learned from such an approach are ever more critical as crime and crime control become increasingly multinational—e.g., cybercrime, biotech crime, and terrorism. The issues and methods of coping with these global shifts are discussed. Is it time for creative thinking to replace or supplement standard operating procedures in agencies around the world? Can this proactive methodology be perfected and adopted globally?

Who should attend: Anyone interested in public safety, leadership, and a multinational world.
What you’ll learn: Participants will learn how to apply futures methodologies and creativity to a specific field (public safety), the challenges associated with dealing with multinational crime, and the challenges to community governance posed by public safety demands.
How this new knowledge can be applied: The attendee can return home as an activist for a multinational focus for local, state, and national public safety agencies. Civic and governmental leaders will be armed with new ideas to move forward with streamlining public safety for the twenty-first century.

Gene Stephens, professor emeritus, University of South Carolina; charter member, Police Futurists International.; member, FBI Futures Working Group, Columbia, South Carolina
Al Youngs, esq, consultant, DynCorp International, Member FBI Futures Working Group, former president Police Futurist Int., Retired Division Chief Lakewood, Colorado. Police Department, Adjunct Professor Rio Salado, Ottawa University, University of Colorado.
Bud Levin, head, Psychology Department, Blue Ridge Community College; commander, Policy and Planning Bureau, Waynesboro Police Department, Weyers Cave, Virginia

key words: creativity, leadership, multinational, public safety
issue areas: Governance and Communities, Learning and Education, Futures Methodologies and Processes

Special Event Building on BRICs The emerging economic powerhouses—Brazil, Russia, India, and China, known as the BRIC economies—are increasingly challenging Western economic dominance. Their importance is already well established. The key question for the future is: Who will be next? Where will the new important economies come from? Will they arise along the New Silk Road between East Asia and the Middle East and Africa? Will we see the rise to prominence of such countries as the Emirate States, Iran, Nigeria, Argentina, and Indonesia? After brief presentations by an international panel, audience members will be asked for their knowledge, experience, and ideas concerning this critical aspect of the global economy.  Who should attend: All participants interested in the future of economics and development, including those with business and regulatory responsibilities, should attend. What you’ll learn: Attendees will learn about emerging economic powerhouses. How this new knowledge can be applied: Participants can use the new information in their businesses and organizations to help when dealing with these four powerful countries. Arnold Brown, chairman, Weiner, Edrich, Brown, Inc.; co-author, FutureThink: How to Think Clearly in a Time of Change, New York, New York.  José Cordeiro, founder, Venezuela Chapter of the World Future Society; former director, World Transhumanist Association, Chiba, Japan. Ian Pearson, independent futurologist, Futurizon; formerly futurologist, British Telecommunications, Ipswich, United Kingdom. Erica Orange, associate,  Weiner, Edrich, Brown, Inc., New York, New York. key words:  economy, Brazil, Russia, India issue areas: Governance and Communities, Business and Careers

Public Sector Foresight: Challenges and Opportunities

While new opportunities exist for foresight to inform government decision making, challenges may be posed by complexity or fast-paced change characterizing some emerging trends and developments. Examples of challenges posed by fast-paced technology include trends relevant to highway safety. How “reasoning by analogy” can inform decision making at the federal level in order to address the complex issues of disaster recovery will be discussed. Audience members will be encouraged to provide their own examples identifying opportunities and challenges for foresight in public-sector work and how these can be addressed.

Who should attend: Those with a special interest in understanding opportunities and challenges to applying foresight to public-sector issues.
What you’ll learn: What opportunities and challenges to foresight exist for foresight in the United States and abroad, as well as selected approaches for addressing foresight issues. 
How this new knowledge can be applied:  By foresight practitioners working within or in collaboration with the public sector.

Peter Bishop, associate professor of strategic foresight, coordinator of the graduate program in Futures Studies, University of Houston, Houston, Texas.|
Catherine Cosgrove, policy advisor, Premier's Cabinet Office, Government of Quebec; Montreal, Quebec, Canada
Nancy Donovan, senior analyst in GAO's Applied Research and Methods Group, Washington, D.C.
Peter Del Toro, assistant director, Strategic Issues Team, GAO, Washington, D.C.

key words:  foresight, government, disaster recovery
issue area: Governance and Communities

Special Event GrrRANK!  The World’s Largest Economy Shifts Gears Because the 2008 financial crash will ultimately eliminate between $10 and  $20 trillion from the world’s capital supply, both commercial and consumer credit will be costlier—and harder to get—for the foreseeable future. Even after we recover from the current recession in 2011, levels of consumer spending will remain restrained. To offset the effects of the recession, the U.S. government will enact a universal, single-payer health insurance system, while directing tens of billions of federal investment to infrastructure improvements—especially urban water systems, mass transit, renewable energy research and production, and greenhouse-gas reduction. The speaker will describe how a confluence of long-term demographic trends and the singular economic and political events of 2008 have already begun to change life in the United States. Americans will be spending less on housing, cars, and designer clothing, and spending more on infrastructure, health care, and home entertainment. Spreading suburban sprawl will grind to a halt, and most new residences will be built in high-density, mixed-use in-fill developments, clustered around rail transit stations throughout an increasingly car-free, urbanized America. The coming building boom in energy-efficient urban villages will mark the nation’s return to middle-class lifestyles that are both ecologically and economically sustainable. Who should attend: Business and urban planners, economic property developers, local government, marketing professionals, environmental activists, investors. What you’ll learn: Changing make-up of U.S. households, emerging trends in consumer behavior, changing patterns in urban land use and transportation. How this new knowledge can be applied: To guide local land use and transportation planning; to improve local economic development strategies; to better inform the invention and design of new consumer products and services.  David Pearce Snyder, principal partner, The Synder Family Enterprise, Bethesda, Maryland; contributing editor, The Futurist, Trend Letter, On the Horizon, and Innovate. key words:  economy, land use, infrastructure, lifestyles, transportation issue areas: Governance and Communities, Social and Cultural Trends

The Futures of China

From 1949 to 1969, China stood up, vied for leadership of international communism, and launched a cultural revolution. From 1969 to 1989, it bid farewell to its leader, liberalized its economy, and crushed a popular demonstration. From 1989 to 2009, it joined the WTO, emerged as a world power, and hosted the 2008 Olympics that do the next two decades have in store for China? What forces will play the greatest role in determining China’s future? What role will China play vis-à-vis the rest of the world? 

Who should attend: Anyone interested in putting China’s recent economic growth in a longer-term perspective and considering the key forces that will shape China’s future.  Attendees might include those with interests in business, politics, economics, important global issues such as climate change, and consumer trends.
What you’ll learn: In addition to seeing futures methods in practice, attendees will gain a new perspective—if not three—on the future of China. Panelists will provide several forecasts on key challenges facing China, and attendees can practice their own futures skills by joining in the discussion.
How this new knowledge can be applied: Thinking about a civilization that is 5,000 years old requires a long-term view. The perspectives provided by this panel will be of great value to strategic-planning processes, strategic thinking, and overall consideration of where the world is headed, since China will likely play a significant role in any scenario.

Eric Meade, futurist, Institute for Alternative Futures, Alexandria, Virginia
John Cashman, futurist, Social Technologies, Shanghai, China
Ting Xu, senior project manager, Global Project, Bertelsmann Foundation, Washington, D.C.

key words:  China, Asia, business, economics, politics, consumer trends
issue areas: Governance and Communities, Business and Careers, Social and Cultural Trends

Assuring the Future of Our Infrastructure

At the conclusion of the 2007 WFS conference in Minneapolis, a number of delegates on their way to the airport nearly went down with the collapse of the interstate 35W bridge over the Mississippi River. This uncomfortably close call succeeded in driving home the point that the condition of a significant amount of North America’s infrastructure is at the cusp of a major crisis.

More than 30% of the bridges in West Virginia are considered structurally deficient. The average age of the power plants in Michigan now exceeds 50 years and their continued reliability is in doubt. More than three dozen levees in California are in danger of immediate collapse, and a 90-year-old steam pipe recently ruptured in downtown Manhattan. The U.S. Department of Transportation has noted that more than 100,000 bridges have serious structural problems. According to the American Society of Civil Engineers, it will cost close to $2 trillion over the next half decade to bring the infrastructure in the United States up to an acceptably safe condition. 

The problem is that democratic governments are notoriously inefficient at maintaining infrastructure. For years the expansion of the road and transportation infrastructure has failed to keep pace with the rising volume of traffic, so existing infrastructure has to sustain ever greater stresses. Politicians find it far more politically rewarding to subsidize farmers or hand out baby bonuses. Real sustained infrastructure renewal requires both more money and radically new thinking. Unfortunately, both of these are usually in short supply when annual budgets are set to deal with decaying infrastructure. What can be done?

Who should attend: Anyone interested in gaining an understanding of the state of North American infrastructure and who want to learn about new technologies and approaches that will facilitate the remediation of existing infrastructure and permit the construction of twenty-first-century infrastructure that is far more durable, reliable, and economical.
What you’ll learn: Participants will gain a broad overview of the magnitude of the present problems and liabilities associated with infrastructure in the United States, how new maintenance procedures can reduce the risk of structural failure, how new technologies will permit the remote monitoring of structures, and how structures will soon gain a degree of intelligence sufficient to allow them to diagnose and fix their own problems.
How this new knowledge can be applied: Participants will learn about more efficient infrastructure maintenance procedures and systems that can be implemented in their workplaces, how the risks associated with potential structural failure can be managed, and how local, regional, and national authorities can significantly reduce the costs associated with infrastructure maintenance.

Paul D. Tinari, director, Pacific Institute for Advanced Study, Coquitlam, British Columbia, Canada

key words:  infrastructure, intelligent structures, failure analysis & prevention, systems thinking.
issue areas: Governance and Communities

Making the Impossible Possible in Foreign Affairs

A systems approach to peace and the role of NGOs in applying the concepts and principles of Track Two and multi-track diplomacy in reducing intrastate conflicts in the developing world will be discussed. These principles will apply to all future conflicts around the globe.

How these principles were utilized to solve conflicts in divided Cyprus, divided Kashmir, and divided Punjab (India/Pakistan) will be described. The role of NGOs in post-conflict Angola will also be discussed.

In every example, critics said that the goals of these projects were impossible to achieve. In every case, they were proven wrong.

Who should attend: Government, military, business, and global strategists; security experts; educators; students; and all those interested in peace studies. What you’ll learn: Attendees will learn that through the application of the concept of Track Two and multi-track diplomacy, peaceful transformations in conflicted areas can be achieved on local, national, and international levels.
How this new knowledge can be applied:   The principles of multi-track diplomacy can be applied on all levels, from the interpersonal to business to government and in all settings around the world. 

Ambassador John W. McDonald, president of the Institute of Multi-Track Diplomacy, former diplomat, Arlington, Virginia
Freitas Guerra, executive director of SHAREcircle, Evanston, Illinois

key words: government, peace, security, democracy, strategies, conflict prevention
issue areas: Governance and Communities, Social and Cultural Trends, Learning and Education

Policing a Complex World:  Challenges of Stability in the Context of Differing Threats

This presentation is a timely discussion of how law enforcement roles and missions are changing globally and locally. Police forces have and will continue to be forced, if not expected, to change the way they currently do business. Cooperation among a variety of government bodies will be necessary to ensure continued stability even within the United States. Improved cooperation, intelligence gathering and sharing, broadening awareness, in addition to good community policing continue to be important issues in stemming this tide. How the optimum situations will be attained remains the essential question. How law enforcement members fulfill their roles at home by enhancing positive relationships and minimizing negative interactions within our communities, our nation, and the world is essential to both homeland security and national security interests.

Who should attend: public safety officials, government officials, national security professionals.

What you’ll learn: Prospectives on the future of law enforcement, both domestically and internationally.

How this new knowledge can be applied: Attendees will be able to talk with local and community officials about ways in which cooperation can enhance intra organization relationships.

John Jarvis, senior scientist, Federal Bureau of Investigation, Behavioral Science Unit, Quantico, Virginia
Bud Levin, head, Psychology Department, Blue Ridge Community College; commander, Policy and Planning Bureau, Waynesboro Police Department, Weyers Cave, Virginia
Robert Bunker, CEO, counter-OPFOR Corporation, Claremont, California
Michael J. Murchison, major, SOCOM Center for Knowledge and Futures, United States Marines, MacDill Air Force Base, Florida

key words:  stability, change, law enforcement
issue areas: Governance and Communities, Social and Cultural Trends

The Emerging Creative Molecular/Open Source Economy

We live in a tumultuous time of global economic crisis. It is quickly becoming apparent that we are in unchartered economic territory that is influenced by the impact of emerging trends and weak signals in all parts of our society. For the first time in history we are having to deal with three different types of economies: (1) the last stages of the Industrial Economy, (2) a transition stage until 2020–2025 called the Knowledge Economy, and (3) the early stages of a completely new economic structure some call the Creative Molecular Economy.

This session will discuss the concept of a Creative Molecular Economy and how it can be integrated with the idea of an Open Source Economy as a way for local areas to adapt to the current financial and emerging economic crisis. A key focus will be to present new strategies, methods, and ongoing examples for developing capacities for this new type of emerging economy.

Who should attend: Economic developers, community leaders, educators, elected officials, and anyone interested in how to prepare communities for a different kind of economic future.
What you’ll learn: Participants will learn (1) why communities and citizens will need to rethink how to develop a vital and sustainable economy, and (2) concepts and methods of seeding capacities for a Creative Molecular/Open Source Economy that will help transform ways communities prepare for a different kind of economic future.
How this new knowledge can be applied: Communities, organizations, and individuals can use this information to prepare for a different kind of economic future.

Rick Smyre, president, Center for Communities of the Future, Gastonia, North Carolina
Robert D. Atkinson, founder and president, Information Technology and Innovation Foundation; formerly project director, Congressional Office of Technology Assessment, Washington, D.C. 

key words: economy, community
issue areas: Governance and Communities

FOR MORE INFORMATION CONTACT:
World Future Society Headquarters
7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450
Bethesda, Maryland 20814
Web site: www.wfs.org.
Telephone: 800-989-8274 or 301-656-8274; fax: 301-951-0394