Technology and Science
(Updated
on a regular basis. Please check back soon!)
Forecasting the Technology Revolution: The Coming Global
Crisis of Maturity
The latest results from the TechCast Project will be
showcased. This project uses a panel of 100 experts to
forecast breakthroughs in energy, the environment, robotics,
information technology, medicine, biogenetics,
transportation and space exploration. The forecasts are then
organized into a series of longitudinal scenarios showing
how these advances are leading to a "global crisis of
maturity" between 2020 and 2030. Other breakthroughs in
artificial intelligence, knowledge, and consciousness and
how they are likely to resolve this looming disaster will be
discussed.
Who should attend:
Almost anyone can benefit from
attending this session as these global changes will affect
business, government, education, and all other sectors of
human activity, around the world.
What you'll learn: Participants will learn the
TechCast online research method, which is an improved form
of the Delphi technique, and forecasts of more than 62
critical technologies. They will also learn how various
innovations and market conditions have led to a "global
crisis of maturity," consisting of energy shortages,
environmental damage, climate change, WMD, cultural conflict
and terrorism, and other threats. Finally, we’ll explore the
global shift in consciousness--made possible by advanced AI,
the spread of knowledge, and "technologies of
consciousness"--that’s already under way.
How can this knowledge be applied:
Participants can
apply this knowledge to the strategic planning of their
organizations and their personal plans.
William E. Halal, professor emeritus, George
Washington University, co-founder and trustee, Institute for
Knowledge and Innovation, president, TechCast LLC,
Washington, D.C.
key words: longitudinal scenarios, artificial
intelligence
issue areas: Technology and Science, Business and
Careers
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Special Event
Emerging Technologies: So
What? Public Policy Considerations for the Next Generation
The
proliferation of the Internet, decoding of the human genome
and advances in cognitive neuroscience are only launching
points: ongoing and accelerating research could soon yield a
convergence of Nano-Bio-Info-Cogno (NBIC) technologies that
threatens to empower organizations and even individuals to
manipulate life at the most rudimentary scale. The
implications of this impending revolution are further
complicated by the rising tensions wrought by climate
change, globalization and other macro trends such as the
transition to a virtual economy. While many technologies on
the horizon promise new opportunities to improve and manage
our increasingly complex world, they will also usher in
potent threats that must be met by a new brand of rigorous
foresight. Now more than ever, we have the power to shape
our future; thus now is the time for current and future
leaders to initiate and sustain crucial policy discussions
that acknowledge the broad and complex challenges entailed
in emerging technologies.
Who should attend: Anyone
interested in expanding the discussion about emerging
technologies beyond the technology itself. Academics, business
leaders, policy makers, futurists and any citizens concerned
with the public policy challenges of the next century.
What
you'll learn:
Attendees will receive a distilled
survey of significant technology forecasts, followed by an
extensive overview of the threats they entail and the policy
issues they raise.
How can
this new knowledge be applied: This discussion aims to
provoke people to more closely consider the implications of
technology and global trends when shaping their opinions on what
should and should not be pursued, and how individuals,
businesses and governments should move forward and prepare to
respond.
Evan M.H. Faber, student, George
Washington University, Washington, D.C.
Leon S. Fuerth, former national security adviser to Vice
President Al Gore, research professor, Elliott School of
International Affairs, George Washington University, Washington,
D.C.
Jerome C. Glenn, executive director, American
Council/United Nations University, director, WFUNA Millennium
Project, Washington, D.C.
William E. Halal, professor emeritus, George Washington
University; co-founder and trustee, Institute for Knowledge and
Innovation, president; TechCast LLC, Washington, D.C.
key words: public policy,
emerging technologies, complexity, governance
issue areas: Technology and Science, Governance and
Communities, Social and Cultural Trends
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Digital Identity:
Managing Your Digital Brand in 2028
More and
more, our corporate and personal identities are being defined by
digital media. If you are like most people, you have multiple
online profiles, or digital identities. In 2028, your
digital identity will need to be managed and protected to ensure
that it represents you well. As a society, we need to start
managing our digital DNA so that it is correct and current.
Who should
attend: Anyone who currently has a digital profile and is
interested in the future of digital identity records management
should attend this session.
What you'll learn: Attendees will learn about the
challenges, tools required, and legal issues regarding personal
and corporate digital identity management in the future.
How can this new knowledge be applied: By understanding
how digital identities are currently being managed, and what
technology will be used in the future, attendees can get a
"jump-start" on controlling how their personal and corporate
records are used.
Scott David, partner, K&L Gates LLP,
Seattle, Washington
Kelly
Kuchta, CEO, Forensics Consulting Solutions, Phoenix,
Arizona
(other
speakers TBD)
key words:
digital identity, technology, digital profile, biometrics
issue areas: Technology and Science, Social and Cultural
Trends, Futures Methodologies
Radical
Technologies, Rapid Change, and the Real World
What happens when
science fiction becomes science fact? When rapid change meets
the real world? In the coming collision between radically
powerful new technologies and the messy world of military
conflicts, culture wars, and globalization, who will win and who
will lose? The findings of a Global Task Force on Implications
and Policy, a group that recently produced eight future
scenarios of rapid technological change, will be presented.
Picture the
Washington, D.C., of 1808 suddenly encountering any of today's
highly developed technologiesin
medicine, aerospace, communications, you name itand
imagine the tumult that would result. Now consider that our
world may face the equivalent of two centuries worth of
industrial and technological revolution, all packed into just
the next few years. Are today's institutions prepared for that
level of change? Are you?
Who should attend:
Anyone with an interest in the future of the world over the
next two decades, particularly those concerned with managing
change. Educators, policy makers, and business leaders may find
it especially enlightening.
What you'll learn: They will learn the results
of a unique project bringing together thought leaders from
around the world to craft plausible scenarios of rapid change
over the next 20 years. They'll discover several different
depictions, some pessimistic and some optimistic, but all
believable, all thought-provoking, and all potentially
action-inducing.
How can this new knowledge be applied:
Participants will receive a CD-ROM containing the eight future
scenarios developed by CRN's Global Task Force on Implications
and Policy. Studying, comparing, and contrasting the scenarios
can assist both organizations and individuals to evaluate their
present approach to change and make adjustments for the
revolutionary disruptions that could be triggered by the coming
collision between radical technology and the real world.
Mike Treder,
executive director, Center for Responsible Nanaotechnology,
Brooklyn, New York
key words:
technology, science, culture, globalization
issue areas: Technology and Science, Social and Cultural
Trends
The Future of Virtual
Worlds
When remote connectivity vendor Citrix
snapped up virtualization company XenSource for
$500 million,
many realized for the first time that virtual worlds had become
big business. The evolution of online virtual worlds has, to a
large extent, mirrored the early years of the World Wide Web.
Many enterprises went online in the early Web without fully
understanding what they were getting themselves into. There was
little understanding of the technology, usability issues ,
or potential security risks. But individuals and organizations
that persevered and overcame the initial setbacks eventually
harvested significant returns
as
early innovators in one of the
most significant technological initiatives of our time.
Businesses are discovering that if they
can overcome the potential IT security risks, the access
management and avatar identity issues, then virtual worlds can
profitably be used for internal communications and as a forum
for corporate training. For many younger consumers, online
virtual
worlds are neither strange nor unusual. Being able to
reach this demographic could be a real benefit to companies.
Who should attend:
All individuals and organizations who are curious about
the evolving universe of virtual worlds and that want to know
how they can successfully establish a virtual online presence.
What you’ll learn: Participants will gain a
broad overview of virtual worlds ,
including how to create and
maintain a virtual presence, security issues and how to set up
a
virtual business.
How can this new knowledge be applied: Participants will
learn how to protect themselves from becoming road-kill on the
information super-highway and how they can establish, develop
and profit from a powerful presence in the
virtual
world.
Paul D. Tinari,
director, Pacific Institute for Advanced Study, Coquitlam,
British Columbia, Canada
key words:
technology, internal communication, corporate training
issue areas: Technology and Science,
Business and Careers
A Vision of the
Impact of Advanced Media Technology on Human Consciousness:
Surviving the Virtual-Reality Internet World
Rapidly evolving media technologies embed
ever deeper into how we experience reality. This presentation
explores where media innovation leads, how it disorients us, and
how to recover. Our addiction to new media leads to
indistinguishable merging of
"real"
and
"virtua"l worlds. When
everything is modifiable, only inner values and virtues provide
grounding.
Who should attend:
People interested in media, spirituality, and the power or
vision.
What you’ll learn: A philosophy of medial beyond gadgetry
and how to use technology and new media for positive change.
How can this new knowledge be applied: Preparation for
negative impacts of media technologies; personal and
organizational vision for clarity in a fluid world.
Michael Aschenbach,
director, Institute for Human Transformation; president,
Emerging Vision Media, LLC; author, Vision 3000: The
Transformation of Humanity in the New Millennium. Website:
www.emergingvisionmedia.com, East Fallowfield,
Pennsylvania
key words:
vision, media, values, disaster recovery
issue areas: Technology and Science, Values and
Spirituality, Social and Cultural Trends
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Special Event
The Future of
AI Lies in Virtual Worlds
Online virtual worlds provide a powerful
environment for the education of AI systems, in particular for
AI systems demonstrating “artificial general intelligence” (AGI)
rather than narrowly specialized, task-specific intelligence. In
this presentation, the speaker will review the state of the art
in virtual world technology, including online games and
open-ended virtual worlds like OpenSim and Second Life, and its
strengths and weaknesses from an AI-education perspective. Also
covered will be the state of the art in AGI technology, with a
focus on AGI architectures that have already been used to
control agents in virtual worlds. Brief animated films will be
shown illustrating some of these AI systems in action. It will
be argued that powerful AGI at the human level and beyond may
potentially be achieved via leveraging the virtual-world-using
online-game-playing masses to teach a large number of artificial
agents that share knowledge via a collective memory while also
maintaining individualized personalities.
Who should attend: Anyone interested
in the futures of AI, online gaming, or virtual worlds.
What you’ll learn:
The state of the art in AI, in virtual
worlds technology, and in the fusion of the twomost
importantly, a vision of future technologies involving highly
powerful AIs living and learning in virtual world and the
implications of these technologies for society among humans and
beyond.|
How this new knowledge can be applied: The ideas presented
in the talk will be directly relevant to anyone using AI or
virtual worlds in their business or research. It may also be
relevant to others insofar as they may be able to get involved
with entertainment oriented virtual worlds or games involving
AI’s, in the next few years.
Ben Goertzel, director of research,
SIAI; CEO, Novamente LLC and Biomind LLC, Washington, D.C.
key words: artificial intelligence,
virtual worlds
issue areas: Technology and Science, Social and Cultural
Trends
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The Future of Intelligent Systems
Technology and How It Can Change the World
A
national program focused on the “science of the mind” could launch
the next technological “long wave,” with impacts for the national
interests in science, medicine, security, and economic growth. The
sharp edges of this future are already emerging. Panel members will
outline the cost and composition of such a program, describe current
and future applications of intelligent systems, and discuss methods
for assessing the economic implications of future advances in
intelligent systems. The dimensions of a national R&D thrust capable
of delivering truly autonomous systems and some radical implications
for transforming the distribution of wealth based on widespread
ownership of capital assets will be discussed. The current
capabilities and future promise of autonomous vehicles for military
applications will be described. The FIATECH consortium’s efforts to
organize intelligent machine technology for applications in the
construction industry will be highlighted. Economic estimates that
suggest that a national “science of the mind” thrust is warranted
will also be discussed.
Who should attend:
Policy makers, citizens, government officials, scientists and engineers,
futurist professionals, high-tech industry professionals, and
national-security professionals
What you’ll learn:
How close we are to a future of truly intelligent systems. What are
those systems capable of today, and what could they be capable of in
the wake of a concerted national program of research and
development? What are the economic implications of future
capabilities? For professional futurists, how can economic analysis
techniques and futures forecasting techniques support the investment
planning process?
How can this new knowledge
be applied: Attendees will
grasp the potential of truly intelligent systems for all manner of
applications and begin to see the radical implications for their
life and work. Professional futurists will see how standard economic
frameworks can be used to justify investments in technologies whose
payoffs are beyond the corporate strategic planning horizon.
James S. Albus,
senior fellow at the
National Institute of Standards and Technology; co-author of
Engineering of Mind; and author of “Peoples Capitalism: A Plan
for Prosperity and Economic Justice,”
Global Business & Economics Anthology.
Chuck Shoemaker,
director of research, General Dynamics Robotic Systems; formerly
with the Army Research Lab’s Development and Engineering Command.
Richard Jackson, director of FIATECH, a not-for-profit consortium focused on the
deployment of technologies for application in the capital projects
segment of the construction industry; formerly the director of
NIST’s Manufacturing Engineering Laboratory (MEL).
David Leech,
senior analyst, TASC Inc., a Northrop Grumman company; co-author,
Intelligent Machine Technology and Productivity Growth.
keywords:
technology, science, intelligent
system
issues areas: Science and
Technology, Futures Methodologies and Processes, Social and Cultural
Trends
For more information contact: World Future
Society, 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite
450, Bethesda, Maryland 20814;
Tel: 1-800-989-8274 or 1-301-656-8274; Fax: 1-301-951-0394;
Web Site:
www.wfs.org; E-mail:
sechard@wfs.org. |