Emerging Technologies: So
What? Public Policy Considerations for the Next Generation
The
proliferation of the Internet, decoding of the human genome
and advances in cognitive neuroscience are only launching
points: ongoing and accelerating research could soon yield a
convergence of Nano-Bio-Info-Cogno (NBIC) technologies that
threatens to empower organizations and even individuals to
manipulate life at the most rudimentary scale. The
implications of this impending revolution are further
complicated by the rising tensions wrought by climate
change, globalization and other macro trends such as the
transition to a virtual economy. While many technologies on
the horizon promise new opportunities to improve and manage
our increasingly complex world, they will also usher in
potent threats that must be met by a new brand of rigorous
foresight. Now more than ever, we have the power to shape
our future; thus now is the time for current and future
leaders to initiate and sustain crucial policy discussions
that acknowledge the broad and complex challenges entailed
in emerging technologies.
Who should attend: Anyone
interested in expanding the discussion about emerging
technologies beyond the technology itself. Academics, business
leaders, policy makers, futurists and any citizens concerned
with the public policy challenges of the next century.
What you'll learn: Attendees will receive a distilled
survey of significant technology forecasts, followed by an
extensive overview of the threats they entail and the policy
issues they raise.
How can
this new knowledge be applied:
This discussion aims to
provoke people to more closely consider the implications of
technology and global trends when shaping their opinions on what
should and should not be pursued, and how individuals,
businesses and governments should move forward and prepare to
respond.
Evan M.H. Faber,
student, George
Washington University, Washington, D.C.
Leon S. Fuerth, former national security adviser to Vice
President Al Gore, research professor, Elliott School of
International Affairs, George Washington University, Washington,
D.C.
Jerome C. Glenn, executive director, American
Council/United Nations University, director, WFUNA Millennium
Project, Washington, D.C.
William E. Halal,
professor emeritus, George Washington
University; co-founder and trustee, Institute for Knowledge and
Innovation, president, TechCast LLC, Washington, D.C.
key words:
public policy,
emerging technologies, complexity, governance
issue areas:
Technology and Science,
Governance and Communities, Social and Cultural Trends
Using Futures in
Organizational Strategy
While many futures projects take a blanket
approach to strategic foresight, when applied deliberately,
futures work contributes to organizational strategy and
encourages a coordinated approach to achieving defined
objectives in a number of ways. In this session, panelists will
discuss their experiences and methodologies in using futures to
craft business, non-profit and association strategies from a
number of different perspectives. Topics will include the design
of a forward-looking strategic planning processes, the role of
foresight in larger change management efforts and ways that
futures tools are used to cultivate visionary leadership.
Who should attend: Business,
nonprofit and association leaders and those interested in the
relationship between futures and organizational strategy.
What you will learn: Participants will learn several
methodologies for integrating foresight into the broader pursuit
of organizational objectives.
How can this new knowledge be applied: Attendees will
come away with a better sense of the roles that foresight can
play in an organization’s strategy.
Devin Fidler, futurist, Institute for
Alternative Futures, Alexandria, Virginia
Jonathan Peck, president, Institute for Alternative
Futures, Alexandria, Virginia
William Rowley, senior futurist and COO, Institute for
Alternative Futures, Alexandria, Virginia
key words: organizational strategy,
strategic planning, change leadership
issue areas: Futures Methodologies, Business and Careers
Foresight
Development on the Web: Some Suggested Priorities for Futurists
in the Classroom and Foresight Community
Not only history and current affairs,
but also foresight development (a combination of futures
studies and personal foresight skills practice) should be
required curricula at the undergraduate level in global
universities today and already is at a handful of top
international universities (eg., Tamkang and Fo Guang U’s)
In this session, members of the Global
Futures Network, an online futurist social networking
community, will explore the Facebook and Linked platforms
and how academics, professionals, and laypersons interested
in futures thinking and practice might better use them.
We’ll discuss why we think online social networking has
"tipped" and why it has become the responsibility for
members of the global futurist community to become early
adopters and opinion leaders in the best of these new online
community platforms.
Who should attend:
Anyone with an interest in or responsibility for either
futures education or online futures community and social
networking development.
What you will learn: Attendees will learn what is
involved in developing and teaching a foresight course at a
leading technology university. Also, how the Global Futures
Network (http://futuresnetwork. org), was developed.
How can this new knowledge be applied: Ideas will be
shared for better foresight curriculum development at all
educational levels and online community development.
John Smart,
president, Acceleration Studies Foundation, (http://accelerating.org),
Mountain View, California
key worlds:
education, futures studies, foresight development,
forecasting, scenarios
issue areas: Learning and Education, Technology and
Science, Futures Methodologies and Processes
Key Trends and
Uncertainties: Views
from Corporate Foresight
What are the most important trends and uncertainties companies are today
facing in Europe, Asia, and North America? Global warming and the responses to
it, peak oil, nanotechnology, economic challenges, the decline of the U.S.
dollar, the changing role of the U.S., terrorism, social and political trends
toward greater equity, aging, and the rise of living in virtual reality are among
a few. Corporate foresight efforts identify key trends and uncertainty such as
these. After participants in this session consider key trends and areas of
uncertainties across the globe, the speakers will share their perspectives for
the future of Europe, Asia and North America. Then the discussion will explore
the similarities and differences between trends and regions, as well as how
companies are using this kind of information.
Who should attend: Practicing futurists, industry leaders, innovation
experts, and strategists.
What you’ll learn: Participants will learn about key trends and
uncertainties; regional comparisons of these trends in Europe, North America,
and Asia ; and how this corporate foresight is used.
How can this new knowledge be applied: This knowledge can be applied by
anyone
who already works in corporate foresight or wants to enhance their
organization's sense of the future and how to effectively consider its
uncertainties.
Clement Bezold, founder and chairman of the board, Institute for
Alternative Futures, Alexandria, Virginia
Klaus Heinzelbecker, director, Strategic Projects, BASF AG, Ludwigshafen,
Germany
Karlheinz Steinmüller,
scientific
director, Z_punkt GmbH The Foresight Company
key words: nanotechnology, trends
issue area: Business and Careers
Climate Change: A Challenge We Must Address
Combustion of coal, oil, and natural gas is increasing the
concentrations of climate-warming (greenhouse) gases in the
atmosphere since the start of the Industrial Revolution. Past
emissions have initiated warming of about 0.3oF to 0.4oF
per decade over the last few decades, while at the same
time causing melting back of snow cover and Arctic sea ice, more
frequent occurrence of very heavy precipitation, intensifying severe
storms, raising sea levels, and shifting in the natural ranges of
plants and animals. Without limits on emissions, much greater change
will occur during the next hundred years, including setting the world
on a path to sea level rise of many feet over the next few
centuries. To limit the most adverse consequences, society needs to
shift away from energy technologies that release carbon dioxide,
methane, and other greenhouse gases—and do this over the next
several decades.
Who should attend: Everyone interested in the future of the
planet---how we will be affected and the legacy we are leaving to
future generations.
What you’ll learn: The extent to which we are changing the
climate and prospective impacts on the climate and society in the
future if we do not take dramatic action to decrease emissions from
coal, oil, and natural gas--and some discussion of the options for
reducing emissions.
How can this new knowledge be applied: Changing
climate will require that we act early to prepare for the coming
changes to the environment, and understanding the prospective
emissions reductions that will be required will provide insight into
what is likely to be, as former President Clinton said, the driving
force for economic transformation through much of the 21st century.
Michael MacCracken, chief scientist, Climate Change Program,
Washington, D.C.
key words: global warming, climate
issue areas: Resources and Environment, Technology and
Science
Future[s] of Energetics
This presentation explores emerging global energy
problems such as the demise of cheap oil and the advent of atmospheric
warming and how these situations relate to the second law of thermodynamics.
We will discuss overviews of emerging energy solutions such as halophytes
for biofuels, brackish/seawater irrigation, solar energy capture and
storage, the processing of atmospheric CO2 into CO, high efficiency
thermo-electrics, and "wild cards" such as LENRs and long-term positron
storage. We’ll also look at evolving opportunities in energy storage and
conservation and mega-engineering approaches to mitigating global warming.
The presentation will suggest "Ways Forward;" including a look at four energy
sources that could quickly and cheaply replace fossil carbon fuels.
Who should attend:
Citizens of the planet concerned about the increasingly apparent and
devastating impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Those curious
concerning the spectrum of potential technical ways
forward.
What you’ll learn: Attendees will learn about the "Frontiers of the
Responsibly Imaginable" regarding the near[er] and far[ther] term technical
opportunities in energy generation, storage, transmission and conservation.
How can this new knowledge be applied: This new knowledge will indicate
those approaches that have the capacity to replace fossil carbon fuels and
provide an indication of pragmatic investment directions. We will also
cover the emerging energy-related "wild cards."
Dennis M. Bushnell,
chief scientist, NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, Virginia
key words: energy
storage, biofuels, conservation
issue areas: Resources and Environment, Technology and Science
The Aging Tsunami: Adapting to Life on Higher Ground
America is on the cusp of a demographic transformation
that will usher in fundamental and lasting changes to the social contract. These
changes will have large implications for labor and capital markets as well as
household expectations with respect to retirement and health provision. At risk
will be the "American dream" that every new generation will grow up enjoying
greater prosperity than its predecessors.
During the years of 1990-2006,
U.S. population grew by an
average of 5.8 people in the traditional working ages for every additional
senior citizen. Soon this trend will reverse. We will add 1.7 new seniors for
every new potential worker in the 2010s and 8.4 seniors for every new worker in
the 2020s. If health costs continue rising as projected, honoring benefit
promises to baby boomers could send the living standards of working households
spiraling downward by 2025. How the U.S. copes with this challenge will have
ramifications far beyond its borders.
Who should attend:
Economists, financial analysts, social policy advocates, health providers,
retirement planners, everyone interested in a sound and secure retirement.
What you’ll learn: Attendees will gain insight to the domestic and global
dimensions of the aging challenge, the proposed remedies and their likely
tradeoffs at the household level, and the broader implications of these policy
choices for capital, labor and product markets.
How can this new knowledge be applied: Planning at every level—from the
household to the largest business—should make provision for the large scale
rebalancing these trends imply.
Paul Hewitt, executive
director, Americans for Generational Equity, Washington, D.C.
key words: demographics,
health care, retirement, strategic planning
issue areas: Social and Cultural Trends, Governance and Communities,
Health and Wellness Futures
The Future Evolution of Humanity, Consciousness, and the
Human Mind
The future evolution of humanity in general, and of the human
mind, human psychology, and consciousness in particular, are immense and complex
topics. Many factors will impact the future evolution of humanity—in the short,
medium, and far future, including: Negative trends and potential dangers,
positive breakthroughs and opportunities, and unexpected events and wild cards;
increasingly diverse and complex systems; the exploration, industrialization,
settlement, and militarization of space; the extinction of species and dramatic
ecological change; contact with intelligent extraterrestrial life and the
evolution of our solar system and the universe; and finally, the evolution of
human consciousness.
From a psychological perspective, the human mind, our mental
capacities, and our sense of self-identity will likely be impacted, transformed,
and enhanced by developments in biotechnology, the science of psychology, brain
research, computer technology, nanotechnology, education, the study of
consciousness and spirituality, human society and culture, and even space
travel.
Further, given the various challenges and opportunities
facing humanity today, new modes of thinking and consciousness, more in tune
with an evolving world and the future, seem needed for humans to survive and
flourish in the world of tomorrow. Preferred directions for the future evolution
of humanity and the continued development of consciousness, enlightenment, and
wisdom will be highlighted.
Who should attend: Anyone from business, government, consulting,
academia, community organizations, or any individuals who are interested in the
near, middle range, far, and far, far future factors that will impact human
evolution as well as the human mind, and thereby all our lives. Also educators,
psychologists, human service workers, philosophers, and anyone interested in the
human side of the future.
What you’ll learn: Participants will gain a wide understanding of the
many factors, including dangers and opportunities, that could impact future
human evolution, in general, and the psychological evolution of humans, in
particular, and how broader environmental factors interact with psychological
and consciousness factors in the short, medium, and far future.
Participants will also learn about different theories regarding where human
evolution and human psychology could be heading in future.
How can this new knowledge be applied: Better understanding of the many
factors that will impact future human evolution, including the dangers and
opportunities that these pose for individuals, groups, nations, and the planet,
will help people in general, and policy makers in particular, better anticipate
and prepare for change in proactive rather than reactive ways. Participants can
also incorporate ideas and principles from theories of preferred psychological
futures into their lives and the operations of their organizations, enabling
them to more thoughtfully anticipate and prepare for possible new developments
in the behavior and thinking of people in future human society.
Linda Groff, director, Global Options Consulting; professor of political
science and future studiers; coordinator, Behavioral Science Undergraduate
program, California State UniversityDominguez
Hills, Carson, California
Tom Lombardo,
professor, psychology and philosophy, Rio
Salado College, Tempe, Arizona; author; co-founder, Center for Future
Consciousness, Scottsdale, Arizona
key words: psychology, social trends, science
issue areas: Values and Spirituality, Learning and Education, Social and
Cultural Trends
Twenty-first Century Foresight Tools, Trends, and
Projections for National Security, International Stability
and Governance
This professional futures and forecasting
expert panel will discuss foresight processes and trends that
promise to improve U.S. security and governance by
increasing awareness, reducing myopia, and expanding decision
space. This will serve also to help build citizen constituencies
more invested in understanding and shaping the future. We will
discuss the groundbreaking work and progress with the Forward
Engagement Project and how Forward Engagement can improve
foresight for the U.S. Executive and Congressional branches of
government and recent pilot projects with citizen groups.
Advanced technology trends and evolving technical analysis
infrastructure that will be available to support governance
foresight and decision analysis for improved decision making
will also be presented. These technologies are beginning to
contribute to current decision-making and futures capabilities
and hold greater promise to affect information collection and
decision analysis.
Who should attend:
Government officials, citizens, futurist professionals,
nonprofit representatives, policy makers, defense industry,
businesspeople who rely on governance and international
stability, and all professions related to national security,
international stability, and governance.
What you’ll learn: Leading edge thinking among leaders in
terms of proposed and ongoing futures analysis and processes,
recent trials and experiments to apply forecasting and futures
techniques in a robust manner to increase foresight related to
US governance, national security and international stability;
projections regarding advanced technologies that may be
available to support future analytics, forecasting, and
governance options development.
How can this new knowledge be applied: The concepts and
processes will aid WFS members in understanding how national
security decision making could be improved and will aid the
general public in becoming better citizens more forwardly
engaged in issues related to the future, national security, and
international stability. Business and nonprofit representatives
will come to better understand tools used for governance and how
greater international stability can affect global business and
nonprofit activities. All will better understand emerging
forecasting and shaping tools and processes.
James E. Burke,
manager, Futures, Forecasting, and Change Management, Northrop
Grumman, Arlington, Virginia
Leon Fuerth, former national security adviser to Vice
President Al Gore, research professor, Elliott School of
International Affairs, The George Washington University,
Washington, D.C.
John F. Meagher, project manager, TASC Futures Group,
Northrop Grumman, Arlington, Virginia
Sheila R. Ronis, director, MBA/MSSL Program, associate
professor, Walsh College, Troy, Michigan
key words:
national security, futures forecasting, environment, government
issue areas: Governance and Communities, Futures
Methodologies, Resources and Environment
The Great
Challenges, Today and Tomorrow
Let’s focus on the essentials.
What are the greatest challenges of the early 21st
century?
How have they changed from the
late 20th Century? How are they likely to change in the
next decades, both in time and space? How can we
contribute to their mitigation as individuals and as
members of our communities
The challenges are familiar:
global warming, security, the energy transition,
resources, poverty, governance, health threats,
education, population growth, and new technologies. The
key observations about each of these challenges, their
framing, their interlinkages, and how they might change
may not be as familiar. This panel seeks to simplify
without being simplistic: the premise is that a list of
key challenges and key insights about them will help us
to "see the future with new eyes".
Who should attend:
Anyone interested in big
picture futures and discussing the priorities of how
futures studies and the application of futures
techniques can contribute to the mitigation of these
challenges.
What you’ll learn: An appreciation of
the big issues of the day, how they are changing and
what you can do using your foresight to contribute to
their mitigation.
How can this new knowledge be applied:
You will
be encouraged and enabled to cross disciplinary lines
and incorporate mitigation of at least some of the great
challenges into your personal and organizational lives.
Jerome C. Glenn,
director of the Millennium Project of
the World Federation of United Nation Association, and
co-author of the annual State of the Future report.
Michael Marien, founder and editor
of Future Survey, published monthly since 1979
by the World Future Society
key words:
trends, challenges
issue areas: Social and Cultural Trends,
Resources and Environment
Trends in Education:
Implications for the Future
The social and economic changes sweeping
our globe will profoundly influence education programs
everywhere, especially in the developed world. While steady
growth is expected in that sector for another five years, the
ability of national and even local government to support quality
education has been steadily declining. School populations are
growing and changing rapidly, due to immigration and other
forces, while schools struggle to keep up with demands for new
technology training and resources. Finally, the complexities of
a teaching career have discouraged many young adults raised on
promises of material prosperity and abundant leisure
time—neither of which are likely in the teaching
profession--from becoming educators.
Who should attend:
Educators, government and public policy officials and anyone
concerned with the future of education and the next generation.
What you’ll learn: Attendees will better understand the
challenges and opportunities of 21st century education, and
where the forces of change will create the greatest effect.
We'll explore the power of technology in modern education and
the need for technology specialists at all levels, as well as
successful models for school improvement. The impact of
mentoring for all ages of students and teachers and the
development of contingency plans for coping with change are all
part of this presentation.
How can this new knowledge be applied: Educators and
policy analysts will be able to better address the challenges of
increased demands on the system at a time of diminished
resources and conflicting program goals. This session will
provide new directions in coping with change effectively.
Marvin Cetron,
president, Forecasting International, Inc., Falls Church,
Virginia; author; member, World Future Society Board of
Directors
key words:
education, youth, mentor
issue area: Learning and Education
The Future of
AI Lies in Virtual Worlds
Online virtual worlds provide a powerful
environment for the education of AI systems, in particular for
AI systems demonstrating “artificial general intelligence” (AGI)
rather than narrowly specialized, task-specific intelligence. In
this presentation, the speaker will review the state of the art
in virtual world technology, including online games and
open-ended virtual worlds like OpenSim and Second Life, and its
strengths and weaknesses from an AI-education perspective. Also
covered will be the state of the art in AGI technology, with a
focus on AGI architectures that have already been used to
control agents in virtual worlds. Brief animated films will be
shown illustrating some of these AI systems in action. It will
be argued that powerful AGI at the human level and beyond may
potentially be achieved via leveraging the virtual-world-using
online-game-playing masses to teach a large number of artificial
agents that share knowledge via a collective memory while also
maintaining individualized personalities.
Who should attend: Anyone interested
in the futures of AI, online gaming, or virtual worlds.
What you’ll learn:
The state of the art in AI, in virtual
worlds technology, and in the fusion of the twomost
importantly, a vision of future technologies involving highly
powerful AIs living and learning in virtual world and the
implications of these technologies for society among humans and
beyond.|
How this new knowledge can be applied: The ideas presented
in the talk will be directly relevant to anyone using AI or
virtual worlds in their business or research. It may also be
relevant to others insofar as they may be able to get involved
with entertainment oriented virtual worlds or games involving
AI’s, in the next few years.
Ben Goertzel, director of research,
SIAI; CEO, Novamente LLC and Biomind LLC, Washington, D.C.
key words: artificial intelligence,
virtual worlds
issue areas: Technology and Science, Social and Cultural
Trends
For more information contact: World Future
Society, 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite
450, Bethesda, Maryland 20814;
Tel: 1-800-989-8274 or 1-301-656-8274; Fax: 1-301-951-0394;
Web Site:
www.wfs.org; E-mail:
sechard@wfs.org.
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