TECHNOLOGY AND SCIENCE
(Updated on a regular basis. Please check back soon!)
A Discussion of the Technology Roadmap for Productive Nanosystems
In June 2005, the Foresight Nanotech Institute and Battelle started the International Technology Roadmap for Productive Nanosystems (UTRPN) (with funding from the Waitt Family Foundation). The roadmap provides a set of focused goals, milestones for achievement and a strong strategic plan to guide research and development productive nanosystems. Roadmaps help to coordinate the thinking and activity of key stakeholders including governments, corporations, research institutions, policy professionals, investors, educators, and the media.The roadmap is the product of collaboration between noted researchers from universities and national labs as well as professionals working in various industries. The group plans for a first publication in the first half of 2007.
Panelists will provide an overview of the roadmap features and then discuss their preferred pathway to productive nanosystems.
Who should attend: Anyone interested in the first ever technology roadmap for productive nanosystems.
What will they learn: What experts consider key goals and milestones in the development of nanotechnology.
How can this new knowledge be applied: You will learn how you can impact the development of this field of technology.David Keenan, president and CEO, Small Technology Consulting, Eagan, Minneapolis
Hank Lederer, senior associate, Institute for Molecular manufacturing, Minneapolis, Minnesota
Steven C. Vetter, president, Molecular Manufacturing Enterprises, Inc., St. Paul, MinnesotaKey words: nanotechnology roadmap, science
Issue areas: Technology and ScienceThe Rise of Social Computing
The World Wide Web is no longer read-only; it’s a read/write, participatory medium. If a company has not yet incorporated some or even all aspects of the “architecture of participation,” it risks withering on the vine while those who do harness this phenomenon, which we call the "social computing" phenomenon, survive.
Social computing has the power to catalyze change across a global geographical and social spectrum. That power, so far as positive social change is concerned, remains largely untapped. Social computing is, or should be, a whole lot more than mere photo sharing. Any business or organization not yet aware of the Web 2.0-style technologies that undergird social computing needs to play catch up.
This panel will discuss social computing from multiple perspectives, seeking to answer questions such as: Why is it important? Who does it benefit? How does Web 2.0 differ from Web 1.0? How can social computing be applied to business and to organizations? What first steps can be taken right away?Who should attend: Anyone aware of the power and potential of the intersection between technology, civil society, social networking, and the future.
What you’ll learn: Participants will learn how they can apply social computing to their own businesses and organizations.
How this knowledge can be applied: Organizations can use the information gained in this session to help their business survive the ever changing world of the Web.Ron Dennis, editorial board member, Social Computing Magazine; co-founder, Livemind Inc., Kaneohe, Hawaii
Jeremy Geelan, senior vice president, editorial and events, SYS-CON Media; founder and editor-in-chief, Social Computing Magazine, Woodcliff Lake, New Jersey
Dion Hinchcliffe, founder and chief technology officer, Hinchcliffe & Company, Alexandria, Virginia
Simeon Simeonov, technology partner, Polaris Ventures; former vice president of emerging technologies and chief architect, Macromedia (now Adobe), Boston, Massachusettskey words: co-intelligence, Web 2.0, Internet, social networking, World Wide Web
issue areas: Technology and Science; Social and Cultural Trends
The Future of Being Digital: Medium or Reality?
Billions of them roam the planet, the growth of their numbers accelerating while the global human population speeds to the brink of rapid decline. With every passing day, we add millions of them—digital creatures small and large—to a new wilderness we still call “the Internet” as though the Internet were nothing more than a new tool to get things done. This is an egregious oversimplification.
In Webspace, we fly digital airplanes with real people inside; we navigate digital bodies to perform surgery on real patients; we aim digital missiles on real targets on the other side of a digital planet. The billions of digital creatures that allow us to perform these tricks are patches of a novel space/time continuum: is that continuum a medium or a new reality?
Today, we navigate a digital world to meet digital people; next, we navigate a digital world in our car to finally meet the real “twins” of the digital people we met to exchange real hugs and kisses. We weave a digital universe as we traverse it; we create digital machines with every picture we submit and every e-mail we send. Are we facing a technological singularity? Today, as we mold atoms into bits, we bring to life everything humans know, feel, and imagine. Tomorrow, with the help of nanotechnology and biotechnology, we will be able to use the bits as the molds for new realities. Is this just another medium, or has evolution delivered us to the threshold of a new reality? Has evolution entered a noösphere where a new and spiritual awakening awaits? Do we face a transformation as powerful as the emergence of life on this planet some four billion years ago; do we need to redefine “spiritual,” “reality,” and develop an entirely new vocabulary to describe our future? Do futurists have to reinvent their tools… and themselves?Who should attend: Leaders, futurists, and all those interested in a new way of thinking.
What you’ll learn: The future isn’t what it used to be. Participants will learn why.|
How this knowledge can be applied: The emerging reality will change the way we think, which will change our repertoire of actions, which will change our lives and the fabric of society.Jan Amkreutz, president, Digital Crossroads Consulting; author, Digital Spirit: Minding the Future, Morgan Hill, California
Timothy C. Mack, president, World Future Society, Bethesda, Marylandkey words: singularity, evolution, society, information technology, digital
issues areas: Technology and Science; Social and Cultural Trends; Governance and Communities
Technology Values
Technology-related products and services will increasingly be shaped by 12 underlying principles, or technology values. The technology values are: 1) appropriateness, 2) user creativity, 3) personalization, 4) connectedness, 5) efficiency, 6) intelligence, 7) simplicity, 8) assistance, 9) convenience, 10) protection, 11) health, and 12) sustainability.
These values represent the characteristics that consumers will look for in products, services, and technologies over the next 10 to 15 years. This session gives attendees an understanding of the consumer needs and values that will shape technologies going forward, highlights the drivers of the 12 technology values, discusses the emerging technologies that support these values, and explores how the technology values may play out and impact specific business sectors.Who should attend: Anyone interested in exploring how consumer needs and desires help to shape technology-related products, and those with an interest in the underlying principles that consumers will look for in their technology-related products and services in the coming decade.
What you’ll learn: Attendees will learn about the 12 technology values and what is driving them to become more important. They will hear about the ways these values are showing up in products and services, and what these “tech values” may mean for different business sectors.
How this knowledge can be applied: Lists provide order in a world of confusion and too much information. They provide a framework for people and organizations to better understand the trends and issues unfolding in the market.Chris Carbone, director of research, Social Technologies, Washington, D.C.
Tom Conger, futurist and founder, Social Technologies, Washington, D.C.key words: technology, consumers
issue areas: Technology and Science; Social and Cultural Trends; Business and Careers
Evaluating Emerging Technologies
The risk people take when adopting an emerging technology is one that leads many to hire, or even become, futurists. Understanding the lifecycle of emerging technologies and how they interact with media and markets will reduce this risk. New technologies always sound great, but many turn out to have poor productivity, and some may never take off.
Participants will learn how to combine the theories of Geoffrey Moore and Clayton Christensen with those of Joel Barker, other futurists, and technology theorists to obtain a complete understanding of the path technologies follow through the lifecycle.
You will acquire new tools for evaluating the maturity of emerging technologies; know the hidden rules of the emerging technology game; be able to judge if a new technology is ready for use; and know why that hot new technology may be endangering your investment.Who should attend: Anyone interested in understanding both the process that emerging technologies go through on their way to market and how to determine when a new technology is ready for use.
What you’ll learn: Participants will learn the theory behind technology development and the critical questions to ask when evaluating an emerging technology for investment.
How this knowledge can be applied: Both individuals and organizations can apply the key questions presented in this session to making better technology decisions. Individuals will learn techniques to determine whether or not they should invest in a new company or buy that great new technology toy. Organizations will benefit by acquiring tools they can use to determine the level of investment they should make in an emerging technology.Jim Mathews, consulting futurist, The Futures Network LLC, Salt Lake City, Utah
key words: innovation, technology
issue areas: Technology and Science; Futures Methodologies, Tools, and Processes
So, You Want to Be a Blogger
In this session, we hope that bloggers and people with opinions will join in to learn what a blog is and how simple it is to start one. We also hope that we can create a community blog or forum so that the opinions can be interactive with other members of WFS, as well other like and adverse thinkers on any subject.
Who should attend: Anyone who wants to tell their story with others.
What you’ll learn: Attendees will learn how easy it is to set up a blog and send out their message.
How this knowledge can be applied: As the world of communication becomes more open by vast usage of the Internet, people have the ability now to express their views both instantaneously and globally. We hope to create a forum or “community blog” where anyone who opts to can add their opinion in any number of categories. Open new avenues of communication, advance your organization's message, or expand your personal life by stating your views.Adam Cohen, webmaster and assistant director of technology, The New York Law School, New York, New York
Stan Cohen, past president, Earth Society Foundation, New York, New Yorkkey words: technology, communication, peace
issue areas: Technology and Science; Social and Cultural Trends
Technological Prospective as a Driver for Innovation in High-Complexity Products
An innovation, as stated by evolutionary economics, is characterized by the conjunction of an invention and a commercial application. So, in order to manage the innovation rationally, it is mandatory to understand the future environment of both sides: technology and market. But innovations involving high-complexity products—like aircrafts, defense systems, and automobiles—deal with extra dimensions.
First, on one hand, these kinds of products don’t incorporate single technologies, but an assemblage of systems and sub-systems. This implies that it’s not possible to study the future of a chosen technology. It is necessary to understand the future product as a concept product, which carries this complex assembly of technologies to the market.
Secondly, when dealing with such complex products, and the long cycles and technological maturity issues associated with them, it may be dangerous to choose a single set of future market assumptions. To avoid this, it may be necessary to develop a prospective study that brings to parallel future worlds a whole set of market drivers that feed the product concepts, and then by extension, the technologies.
This session presents a technological prospective to deal with all these dimensions of the future for the innovation of high-complexity products.Who should attend: Business and governmental futurists, innovation managers, students, and academics.
What you’ll learn: Participants will gain insight into how technological prospective is executed inside an innovation environment that deals with high-complexity products.
How this knowledge can be applied: Information about technological prospective methods applied to innovation management will help business and government adapt in our complex world.Henrique Abrahao Alves, technology development engineer, Embraer, Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil
Denis L. Balaguer, technology development engineer, Embraer, Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil
Rodrigo Carlana da Silva, technology development engineer, Embraer, Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil
Marcos Antonio de Moraes Brito, technology development engineer, Embraer, Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazilkey words: technological prospective, innovation, methods, business
issue areas: Technology and Science; Business and Careers; Futures Methodologies, Tools, and Processes
The Future of RFID
RFID (Radio Frequency Identification) systems consist of tags—chips that contain identifying and often other data—and reading devices that convey information from the tags to computers. Already common in tollbooths and security systems, RFID tags and readers are ready to take over many processes that are now carried out by human beings. RFID systems are being widely tested for applications involving the tracking of inventory from manufacturers to stores. As the technology improves and its costs fall, it could form the core of networks that can handle a broad spectrum of activities, such as monitoring the structural integrity of buildings to informing you when the milk in your refrigerator has passed its expiration date.
There are many unanswered questions about the potential consequences of a world where virtually every product has an embedded RFID tag and reader. Privacy advocates are concerned that RFID systems will give corporations and various government organizations access to ever-increasing volumes of personal information. Individual items purchased with credit cards could link buyers to specific items in a database. Marketers could then, for instance, use customized sales pitches to hone in on individuals. Another concern is that RFID systems could produce automatic audit trails of commercial transactions. The technology will eventually allow corporations to keep consumers’ products under surveillance in their homes. Beyond the security concerns, virtually all RFID applications will displace large numbers of human workers.Who should attend: All futurists who have an interest in gaining an understanding of the evolution of RFID systems and hearing about the most important issues surrounding them.
What you’ll learn: Participants will learn what RFID is, the details of the associated technologies, what the privacy issues are, what the potential impacts on society are, and some of the technical challenges ahead.
How this knowledge can be applied: This knowledge will help participants understand the issues so that they can eliminate the fear that many people have of this technology.Paul D. Tinari, director, Pacific Institute for Advanced Study, Coquitlam, British Columbia, Canada
key words: RFID, tagging, readers, product identification
issue area: Technology and Science
EVENING KEYNOTE
Data by the Yottabyte circa 2050This session addresses the challenges and opportunities of the data tsunami the world will experience between now and 2050. There are currently 30 exabytes of data in storage. Five new exabytes will be created this year, with a growth rate of 50% each year. A panel of data management experts offers their projections for the future. A short live survey (handheld controllers provided by the panel) will capture the audience’s projections regarding growth, impact on productivity, managing technology, potential dangers, and suggestions for future research. In addition, participants will have an opportunity to submit freeform questions for discussion. Panelists will facilitate a discussion of survey results and submitted questions.
Who should attend: Anyone interested in the positive and negative impacts of the exponential growth of data.
What you’ll learn: Participants will learn how the exponential growth of per capita data will affect individual, business, and government in the next four decades. In addition, they will learn about potential technology on the horizon that will help harness and utilize the virtually unlimited pool of data that will be available.
How this knowledge can be applied: Steps can be taken now to ensure that individuals, business, and government are better prepared to deal with the coming avalanche of digital information. Current and emerging technology and processes will be discussed.Montgomery Kosma, management consultant, Washington, D.C.
Kelly “KJ” Kuchta, president and CEO, Forensics Consulting Solutions, LLC, Phoenix, Arizona
Skip Walter, chief technology officer, Attenex Corporation, Seattle, Washingtonkey words: data management, business, information, knowledge management, security
issue areas: Technology and Science; Social and Cultural Trends; Futures Methodologies, Tools, and Processes
Global Solutions Lab
The Global Solutions Lab is an online design, strategic planning, and problem solving workspace that encourages collaboration, synergy, and transparency. Embedded in the Lab is a planning methodology based on the work of Buckminster Fuller and Russell Ackoff. This session presents the Global Solutions Lab, its results to date, embedded methodology, and provides recommendations for use.
Who should attend: Planners, executives, educators, and NGO leaders.
What you’ll learn: Attendees will learn a new methodology for strategic planning and problem solving that encourages collaboration and transparency. They will gain access and learn how to use an online, specially-designed workspace that fosters collaboration and synergy in a structured learning environment that can be focused on almost any topic or problem.
How this knowledge can be applied: Participants can use the Global Solutions Lab for solving global and local problems in a collaborative manner. The problems can be business, organizational, community, governmental, or personal.Medard Gabel, CEO, BigPictureSmallWorld; author, Global Inc.: An Atlas of the Multinational Corporation, Media, Pennsylvania
key words: strategic planning, problem solving, globalization
issue areas: Technology and Science; Learning and Education; Futures Methodologies, Tools, and Processes
SPECIAL EVENT
Future Applications of BiotechnologyResearch and commercialization of new biological technologies is once again moving quickly ahead after a lull following the completion of the Human Genome Project. A graduate course in futures studies at the University of Houston has been investigating some of the more startling applications of these technologies. This session reviews the overall state of biotechnology research and commercialization and showcases some fascinating breakthroughs in five different domains: 1) human health—researchers are now growing neurons that attach to and directly communicate with computer chips; 2) biofuels—microbes might produce hydrogen for fuel from biomass more cheaply than from other energy sources; 3) transgenic animals—goats’ milk can be the source of spider web material which is stronger, lighter, and more flexible than steel; 4) bioweapons—some claim that it is too easy to construct and distribute a highly contagious disease vector; and 5) environmental remediation—microbes could close the recycling loop from waste products back to useful resources.
Who should attend: Anyone interested in long-term technological developments.
What you’ll learn: Attendees will gain an overview of the science and technology that allows us to manipulate living organisms, the applications of that technology for agriculture, industry, and medicine, and some potential social consequences of using that technology, particularly on human beings.
How this knowledge can be applied: The effects of biotechnology will go well beyond the strict use of micro-organisms in agriculture, industry, and health. It could even change how we think about the world. Until now, machines were the most complicated systems that we understood in our world so that mechanistic and hierarchical models of systems are common today, if not required. As we understand more about how living organisms work, however, we may be able to design and build systems and organizations that are more organic, responsive, evolutionary, and robust than the mechanistic systems we have today.Peter Bishop, associate professor of Strategic Foresight; coordinator, graduate program in Future Studies, University of Houston; president, Strategic Foresight and Development, Houston, Texas
Jim Lee, student, Future Studies graduate program, University of Houston, Houston, Texas
Mark Niles, student, Future Studies graduate program, University of Houston, Houston, Texas
Kerry Ramirez, student, Future Studies graduate program, University of Houston, Houston, Texas
Jason Siko, student, Future Studies graduate program, University of Houston, Houston, Texaskey words: biotechnology, research, science, living organisms
issue areas: Technology and Science; Health and Wellness Futures
Follies of Science: 20th Century Visions of Our Fantastic Future
This session looks back at how scientists envisioned life in the year 2007. Promises for the future were made; some sadly broken and some unfortunately honored. While we didn’t get household jetpacks and personal serving-drinks-by-the-pool robots, or even our orgasmatrons, we did get things like the super-fantastic building materials of the future—asbestos, lead, and foam.
So just what was the utopian master plan for future households during the early 20th century? This session offers a view into some of the most creative (but not necessarily thought-through) future visions from the past 100 years: sparkling, smooth lead paint covering our living room walls, dazzling DDT foggers killing mosquitoes dead, alchemists transforming atoms into gold and diamonds, homeowners living in “the foam house of the future,” and, of course, commuters blasting away on their jetpacks to work. Utopian indeed. The future never looked so bright as it did during the 20th century.Who should attend: Anyone who grows nostalgic for past views of the future and perhaps wondering: Where is my robotic maid and hovercraft? Why am I not eating three-course meals by ingesting a small pill?
What you’ll learn: Attendees will learn how our old visions of the future conflict with our present living conditions as well as how futurists and anticipatory thinkers view life in 2050.
How this knowledge can be applied: We can use our past visions of the future to put into context our own visions of the world today and for future generations.Jonathan Dregni, futurist and sci-fi enthusiast, Speck Press, St. Paul, Minnesota
key words: utopia, dystopia, futurism
issue areas: Technology and Science; Health and Wellness Futures; Social and Cultural Trends
Future City: Technology Education for the World
The Future City program is already building the future in engineering and the social sciences for middle school students in the U.S. and other countries such as India. In the United States alone, 30,000 young people compete each year in teams to design the transport, energy, health, and commercial communities of the future. The teams build scale models and explain their innovative ideas in written and oral format. This presentation showcases the work of the 2006 Minnesota regional winning team, who will attend the conference.
Who should attend: Educators, engineers, city planners, and anyone interested in a highly innovative, multi-discipline approach to involving young people in science, social awareness, and intensive language skill training.
What you’ll learn: Attendees will learn how to bring excitement into engineering and the social sciences while building social skills for students from around the world.
How this knowledge can be applied: The knowledge gained from this presentation allows for educational innovation, team teaching, and new energy for engineers of the future.Carol D. Rieg, national director, Future City, Alexandria, Virginia; board member, Maryland Transportation Authority, Gaithersburg, Maryland
Other Panelists To Be Determinedkey words: education, technology
issue areas: Technology and Science; Learning and Education
Nanotechnology and the Future of Warfare
Warfighting: its theory, practice, systems, and weaponry are rapidly evolving. How quickly will they change in the future? Will new technology discoveries—especially nanotechnology, with its potential to revolutionize manufacturing—affect the way wars are fought? Will everyone, including terrorists, soon be able to get their hands on radically powerful new weapons? This session will assert that unless new international agreements are negotiated and guaranteed, future warfare could become more deadly, more destructive, and more likely. Participants will come away from this presentation armed with knowledge that will make it hard to sleep at night.
Who should attend: Academics, government officials, military officers, think tank fellows, citizen activists, and those who make or influence policy regarding arms control and international security.
What you’ll learn: Attendees will learn why nanotechnology may lead to a disturbing “democratization of violence” and why tomorrow’s new WMD will not only be weapons of mass destruction, but also of mass disruption—and nearly impossible to contain and control. Four important components that make future WMD more dangerous will be explained. Implications for war in space, and shifting balances of power on earth, will be explored.
How this knowledge can be applied: The task of designing effective policy toward international agreements for nanotech-based weaponry is both highly complex and vitally important. Knowledge gained in this session should stimulate further investigation into the capabilities of potential new weapons systems, and into the rapidly changing social, economic, and political structures that atomically-precise exponential manufacturing could produce. Those new conditions must be taken into account, because the world of circa 2020 is expected to be vastly different from 2007—and in developing responsible geopolitical solutions, context is everything.Mike Treder, executive director, Center for Responsible Nanotechnology, Brooklyn, New York
key words: nanotechnology, warfare, terrorism
issue areas: Technology and Science; Social and Cultural Trends
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